NHL PROJECTIONS: CROSBY VS MCDAVID

In doing a series of articles related to projecting future offensive potential of a first year draft eligible forward from the CHL, there have been a few discoveries. The first discovery is that there is a strong relationship between junior stats and NHL stats. The second discovery is that age does play a factor with future offensive potential but only in regards to power play scoring. The third discovery is that a point in the QMJHL is worth the same as the OHL and the WHL. Using these as a basis, a linear equation was created to project a first year draft eligible forward from the CHL to their best season in the NHL. The formula for the model is:

(0.231+.404*Non-PP Pts/G) + (1.694+0.363*PP Pts/G-0.089*Age on Sep 15 of draft year).

Now that we have a formula for the NHL projections of draft eligible CHL forwards, we can start to apply it to various forwards. The first big question to ask is who is better, Sidney Crosby or Connor McDavid? So based on purely the formula for NHL projections or NHLP for short, what were Sidney Crosby’s projections in 2005:

Non-Power Play	Power Play	Total
0.893	0.447	1.340

To break this down further, it would be interesting to see how a player would project for goals and assists. To do this, I chose to use their percentage of non-power play goals compared to non-power play points and their percentage of power play goals compared to power play points. For Crosby he had 65 goals with 19 of them on the power play (regular season and playoffs) and 119 assists with 57 of them on the power play. When we break that down Crosby projects to be:

	Non-Power Play
Goals	Assists	Points
36.33	36.92	73.25
	Power Play
Goals	Assists	Points
9.16	27.47	36.62
	Total
Goals	Assists	Points
45.48	64.39	109.87

When we do the same for McDavid (as of April 19, 2015), his breakdown is:

	Non-Power Play
Goals	Assists	Points
36.18	40.11	76.29
	Power Play
Goals	Assists	Points
5.24	21.55	26.79
	Total
Goals	Assists	Points
41.42	61.66	103.08

Those are amazing results for both players, especially if compared to the Art Ross winner Jamie Benn this year with 87 points. Now I need more than Crosby and McDavid for comparisons so I have gone back using the NHLP formula to review the 1998 through 2014 drafts and will be going over the results throughout the summer. Crosby and McDavid sit 1^st and 2^nd out of every CHL forward drafted in the last 18 years, which coincides with everybody calling them generational talents. If you are curious to know who sits in the third position and what his point totals are:

	Non-Power Play
Goals	Assists	Points
30.43	25.69	56.12
	Power Play
Goals	Assists	Points
11.22	27.42	38.63
	Total
Goals	Assists	Points
41.64	53.11	94.75

Only 8 points back of McDavid, but mainly due to power play scoring, this player’s non-power play production was only about ¾ that of the two player’s above him. I guess that why despite being a 1^st overall pick, that is what separates a future superstar in Pat Kane versus a generational talent in McDavid and Crosby.

When breaking down McDavid and Crosby what jumps out is that Sidney Crosby projects to be a more productive power play specialist than McDavid. Part of the reason is due to the fact Sidney Crosby is the younger player in his draft year being born on August 7^th compared to January 13^th in McDavid. If McDavid were born on August 7^th, he would project to be:

Goals	Assists	Points
42.23	64.98	107.21

McDavid would project to almost the same levels as Sidney Crosby if they were both the same age. One theory I have is that time on ice is the biggest factor affected by age and if you were the coach of either of these players I would expect a lot of power play time. If that is the case, the formula could possibly be inflating Crosby’s totals, as he would have received much more power play time than the average player would his age. Despite that, Sidney Crosby still projects to be the more effective power play specialist, as he would have 6 more power play points than McDavid instead of 10. Whether this is due to him being a more effective player on the power play or due to other reasons such as TOI, quality of team or just plain luck are the unknown factors. What we do know is that McDavid’s even strength projections are slightly better than Sid the Kid and much better than a star junior player like Pat Kane. In the end, Crosby wins the NHLP projections due to his superior power play scoring but he does not edge McDavid by much.

As for how good McDavid will be, the stats back it up that he deserves mentioning in the same generational terms as Sidney Crosby. He is also 6’1 compared to Crosby at 5’11 and while both are amazing skaters, McDavid is the faster and more natural skater at the same age. It is safe to say that McDavid is the best prospect to come out of the CHL since a young Sidney Crosby in 2005. With his skating and frame, an argument can be made that his upside is even higher than Sid the Kid. All I can say is that the Edmonton Oilers are one lucky team. And as a fan of the team so am I.