NHL PROJECTIONS: NOT ALL TOP FIVE PICKS ARE CREATED EQUAL

Each draft year is unique and has a mind of it own. Some draft years are top heavy with talent and other years have no superstars. Meanwhile the depth of talent can range quite differently from year to year. That is why when doing comparables, it is not a good idea to just compare a top 5 pick from one year to the next and expect that same value of player. It just does not work that way. To demonstrate, let us compare CHL players that were taken as top 5 picks in the NHL draft between 1998-2014 and apply the NHLP formula. (All height and weight are from the WHL/OHL/QMJHL websites)

1^ST OVERALL

NAME	HT	WT	YEAR	G	A	P
SIDNEY CROSBY	5.11	190	2005	45.50	64.42	109.92
PATRICK KANE	5.11	181	2007	41.64	53.11	94.75
VINCENT LECAVALIER	6.03	182	1998	35.27	52.90	88.17
NATHAN MACKINNON	5.11	179	2013	32.86	49.63	82.50
TAYLOR HALL	6.01	185	2010	32.55	46.44	79.00
JOHN TAVARES	6.01	198	2009	43.45	31.70	75.15
STEVEN STAMKOS	6.01	180	2008	44.84	29.43	74.27
RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS	6.00	173	2011	23.51	46.50	70.02
NAIL YAKUPOV	5.11	190	2012	31.05	37.13	68.18
RICK NASH	6.03	181	2002	32.04	35.55	67.59

• There have been 17 1^st overall picks between 1998-2014 with 10 of them being forwards from one of the top Canadian junior leagues.
• The Oilers have 3 of the 10 players but they rank 5^th, 8^th and 9^th on the list, demonstrating not all draft years are equal
• Nugent Hopkins is a tale of two seasons, as after the first 39 games he projected to be a 63 point player. In the last 39 games, which includes playoffs, he projected to be a 77 point player, which would put him 6^th on the list between Hall and Tavares.
• Yakupov was the best forward available in a very weak draft year. In some years he is not a top 5 pick.
• McDavid will soon join the list and join Crosby as the only player to project to be a 100+ player.

2^ND OVERALL

NAME	HT	WT	YEAR	G	A	P
JASON SPEZZA	6.02	204	2001	32.71	53.15	85.86
DAVID LEGWAND	6.02	175	1998	39.58	40.43	80.01
SAM REINHART	6.01	183	2014	25.42	50.36	75.78
TYLER SEGUIN	6.01	186	2010	34.87	37.94	72.81
ERIC STAAL	6.03	185	2003	30.38	38.63	69.01
BOBBY RYAN	6.01	215	2005	27.31	39.82	67.14
GABRIEL LANDESKOG	6.01	207	2011	33.16	28.00	61.16
JORDAN STAAL	6.03	200	2006	26.86	29.68	56.54

• How close 1^st and 2^nd in a draft can be huge. In 2005 there was a 42 point deop between Crosby and Ryan.
• In most years, Spezza is a 1^st overall pick but was edged out by Kovalchuk that year.
• Legwand did not come close to living up to those numbers. While a solid pro for many years, he did not become the superstar some scout predicted him to become.
• Jordan Staal’s draft position benefited due to his brother Eric. Taking him over Toews seems silly when you look at where Jordan Staal projects.

3^RD OVERALL

NAME	HT	WT	POS	G	A	P
JONATHAN DROUIN	5.11	192	2013	36.99	53.24	90.22
JONATHAN HUBERDEAU	6.01	165	2011	32.42	42.22	74.64
LEON DRAISAITL	6.01	209	2014	25.79	44.78	70.57
MATT DUCHENE	6.00	196	2009	27.73	36.37	64.10
NATHAN HORTON	6.02	195	2003	32.52	31.38	63.90
ALEX GALCHENYUK	6.02	205	2012	27.90	9.41	37.31

• In terms of talent, Drouin has 1^st class potential and similar upside to Pat Kane. He just was in a top heavy draft class.
• Galchenyuk only played 8 games and would likely have projected in the 60-70 range in a full season. Whether he would have projected better than Yakupov we will never know.
• Huberdeau had a better overall year than Hopkins. Hopkins play in the 2^nd half vaulted him over Landeskog and Huberdeau.

4^TH OVERALL

NAME	HT	WT	POS	G	A	P
PAVEL BRENDL	6.02	195	1999	47.16	40.83	87.99
SAM BENNETT	6.00	181	2014	30.91	43.66	74.57
EVANDER KANE	5.11	160	2009	34.37	36.11	70.48
STEPHEN WEISS	6.00	185	2001	28.81	37.87	66.69
RYAN JOHANSEN	6.03	196	2010	20.86	37.68	58.54
ANDREW LADD	6.02	202	2004	21.11	33.43	54.55
BENOIT POULIOT	6.03	190	2005	23.71	27.88	51.59

• Brendl was a big bust, as well as a demonstration that no matter how good your hands are, it does not matter if you do not have the foot speed
• The difference in point projections between Reinhart, Bennett and Draisaitl from 2014 is not much. Reinhart and Bennett have slightly higher point potential but Draisaitl has the size advantage.
• Evander Kane went through a late growth spurt and the WHL never corrected his height and weight.
• Pouliot and Johansen were both late bloomer in terms of there development and were both players the scouts said were better than there numbers. They were correct with Johansen.

5^TH OVERALL

NAME	HT	WT	POS	G	A	P
RYAN STROME	6.01	192	2011	24.79	47.70	72.48
TIM CONNOLLY	6.01	186	1999	36.16	34.88	71.05
MICHAEL DAL COLLE	6.02	171	2014	29.31	41.13	70.44
BRAYDEN SCHENN	6.00	193	2009	25.69	41.31	67.00
RAFFI TORRES	5.11	200	2000	32.87	32.68	65.55
NINO NIEDERREITER	6.02	203	2010	33.32	24.06	57.38

• Ignoring Galchenyuk, only 5 of the 36 players projected to be less than a 60 point player. (J. Staal, Johansen, Ladd, Pouliot and Niederreiter)
• In some draft years, even at the 5^th pick, there is still talented players who projected better than some 1^st overall picks. Strome, Connolly and Dal Colle have a higher NHLP than either Yakupov or Nash.