NHL PROJECTIONS: WHAT MAKES A GOOD TOP 100 PICK

During the month of May the focus of the posts will relate to projecting the NHL offensive potential of first year draft eligible players for the 2015 draft. For the forwards we will use my projection formula called NHLP and for the defensemen, we will use a weight adjusted point formula that values non-power play points over power play points. With a goal of creating a top 100 ranking, we need to know which players to focus on and to determine this we need to create cutoffs. For the cutoffs, I chose to look at players who met the following criteria:

• CHL player taken in the top 100 in their first eligible draft year
• Played 100 NHL games before the 2014-2015 season
• Career scoring is at a 0.25 PTS/G or higher for forwards and career scoring is at a 0.15 PTS/G or higher for defenseman

By looking at only players with 100+ games, it weeds out some of the players who only had a cup of coffee in the NHL. In addition, by choosing forwards who score at 0.25+ PTS/G and defenseman who score at 0.15+ PTS/G, it eliminates the big coke machine types and focuses on the skilled players that a top 100 pick is of better use.

FORWARDS

In the summer, there will be a series of posts related to the review of the 1998 through 2014 NHL Entry Drafts. Due to this, I have already calculated the NHLP for all CHL players taken in the top 100 and there is a clear divide between forwards below 6’ with forwards 6’ and taller. To illustrate, we will look at the bottom 10 players for NHLP for the two height ranges. In total there were 128 forwards who meet these criteria and only 25 of them were under 6’ while the other 103 are 6’+.

BOTTOM 10 (<6’)

NAME	HT	WT	DY	#	G	A	P
TYLER ENNIS	5.09	164	2008	26	27.64	32.03	59.67
JUSTIN WILLIAMS	5.11	180	2000	28	27.51	31.98	59.49
STEVE DOWNIE	5.11	191	2005	29	17.79	41.36	59.16
GILBERT BRULE	5.10	180	2005	6	26.28	32.83	59.11
RICO FATA	5.11	201	1998	6	34.05	24.36	58.41
JORDAN EBERLE	5.11	184	2008	22	31.84	26.18	58.01
SCOTT GOMEZ	5.11	185	1998	27	13.28	42.02	55.29
BRAD MARCHAND	5.09	190	2006	71	21.91	32.76	54.66
CAL CLUTTERBUCK	5.11	185	2006	72	26.32	26.42	52.74
BRANDON MCMILLAN	5.11	190	2008	85	14.87	24.82	39.69

• Outside of Brandon McMillan, no player projected to be less than a 50-point player. With only 4 points in 58 games in the 2014-2015 season, McMillan will be dropping off this list when updated in the summer.
• The fact that smaller players need to project higher offensive totals makes intuitive sense. Generally, players less than 6’ need to play on a skilled offensive line to be effective in the NHL. For the 3^rd and 4^th lines, teams can find larger forwards that can do the role more effectively.

Rule of Thumb: If a forward is less than 6’, they should project to be a 50+ point player to warrant a top 100 selection.

BOTTOM 10 (≥6’)

NAME	HT	WT	DY	#	G	A	P
ADAM HENRIQUE	6.00	196	2008	82	19.07	24.85	43.92
CASEY CIZIKAS	6.00	185	2009	92	21.33	22.53	43.86
MICHAEL GRABNER	6.01	177	2006	14	32.12	11.52	43.64
BRENT BURNS	6.04	183	2003	20	17.15	26.42	43.57
DUSTIN BOYD	6.00	202	2004	98	19.91	21.65	41.56
BRYAN BICKELL	6.04	215	2004	41	25.93	15.58	41.51
SHAWN MATTHIAS	6.04	213	2006	47	16.46	22.14	38.59
ALEX GALCHENYUK	6.02	205	2012	3	27.90	9.41	37.31
BLAKE COMEAU	6.01	207	2004	47	13.24	23.33	36.57
MILAN LUCIC	6.03	220	2006	50	15.93	18.90	34.83

• Only 4 of the 103 players fall below 40 point projections and it is safe to assume Galchenyuk would have exceeded a 40 point projection if not due to injury. Therefore only Matthias, Comeau and Lucic fall below this level, which is just under 3% of the forwards. In most years, it would be a safe bet to consider only forwards that project to be 40+ point players.
• With players 6’ and taller, they do not have to project as well offensively to become an effective pro. It seems an argument can be made that size is a more important factor for the role players than it is for an offensive forwards.

Rule of Thumb: If a forward is 6’ or taller, they should project to be a 40+ point player to warrant a top 100 selection. Exceptions should be made for highly touted draft prospects that have a NHLP in the 35-40 point range.

DEFENSEMEN

When it comes to forwards, there was a clear split when it comes to offensive projections and height and it is similar for defenseman. For defenseman, their average height in the NHL is about 6’2” and that is what we will use as the split. In total there were 67 defensemen who meet the criteria above, with 26 of them under 6’1 while the other 41 are 6’2+.

BOTTOM 10 (<6’2)

NAME	HT	WT	DY	#	G	A	P
BARRET JACKMAN	6.01	195	1999	17	7.43	32.93	40.36
FRANCOIS BEAUCHEMIN	5.11	198	1998	75	10.43	29.93	40.35
LUKAS KRAJICEK	6.01	185	2001	24	8.66	31.60	40.27
JONATHON BLUM	6.01	170	2007	23	7.42	32.59	40.02
THOMAS HICKEY	5.11	182	2007	4	9.45	30.10	39.55
MIKE GREEN	6.01	200	2004	29	13.67	25.49	39.16
NICK SCHULTZ	6.00	184	2000	33	8.50	28.23	36.73
BRENDAN BELL	6.01	207	2001	65	6.30	29.99	36.29
MARC EDOUARD VLASIC	6.01	194	2005	35	5.69	25.89	31.58
KRISTOPHER LETANG	6.00	205	2005	62	12.81	17.89	30.70

• No defenseman less than 6’2” has an adjusted point formula of less than 30, which indicates that smaller d-men need to be able to move the puck and generate points in juniors to be worth taking as a top 100 pick.
• The lowest score is Letang with a 30.7. If we compare that with the 41 players that are 6’2” and taller, it would place Letang 24^th, which is middle of the pack. Clearly if you are not a puck mover and a point generator, than you had better have some size and physical game so that you can compensate.

Rule of Thumb: If a defenseman is less than 6’2”, they should project to be a 30+ point player to warrant a top 100 selection.

BOTTOM 10 (≥6’2)

NAME	HT	WT	DY	#	G	A	P
ADAM MCQUAID	6.04	205	2005	55	3.34	19.08	22.41
BRAYDON COBURN	6.05	224	2003	8	7.68	13.79	21.47
JIRI FISCHER	6.05	190	1998	25	2.78	16.96	19.75
SHEA WEBER	6.03	208	2003	49	2.77	16.94	19.71
ROBYN REGHER	6.04	215	1998	19	4.70	13.80	18.50
MARCO SCANDELLA	6.03	220	2008	55	4.77	11.29	16.04
TYLER MYERS	6.06	211	2008	12	5.60	10.82	15.94
CODY FRANSON	6.05	215	2005	79	2.42	11.98	14.40
JAKUB KINDL	6.03	202	2005	19	2.87	9.43	12.30
ALEXEI SEMENOV	6.06	210	1999	36	0.00	5.92	5.92

• The lowest score for a d-man that is 6’2 is 22.64, which mean that all of the d-men that appear in the bottom 10 are over 6’3”. These d-men demonstrate that if a d-man has limited offensive skills or is a raw player, than it is best they have some size. The average height and weight for the bottom 10 is 6’4.4” and 210 lbs.
• Only Semenov falls below this level, which is 1 out of 41 defenseman since the 1998 NHL Entry Draft. We can assume that he is an outlier and should only consider players with less than 12 points in rare circumstances.

Rule of Thumb: If a defenseman is 6’2” or taller, they should project to be at least a 12+ point player to warrant a top 100 selection. For those defensemen that project to be a 12-20 point player, it is best if they are at least 6’3” and 190 lbs.

*All heights and weight were taken from whl.ca, ontariohockeyleague.com and theqmjhl.ca