2015 WHL FORWARDS: STATISTICAL PROJECTIONS AND COMPARABLES (PART 1)

It is finally time to start evaluating the talent in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft and to start it off we will examine the forwards from the WHL. One way to evaluate prospects is by comparing them statistically against prior draft years. To do so, we will use the NHL Projection formula (NHLP) which projects future offensive potential based on their combined stats from the regular season and playoffs. For comparison, I have already gone through many past draft years, which has given me many comparables to choose from. I was going to choose players for comparison that are within +/- 5% of the NHLP of the player being analyzed but that gave us too many players. In the end, I chose for comparison players who had:

• NHLP within +/- 2.5 %
• Height within +/- 1 inch
• For players 6’4+, the range of height for comparables will be any players over 6’2 due to lack of comparables.
• For players 5’9 and shorter it will be any player less than 5’10.

When comparing, I have broken the players into three categories:

• Players who played 100+ NHL Games
• Players who have played less than 100 NHL Games and who became first draft eligible in 2008 or before. Also includes players drafted after 2008 who are highly unlikely to play in the NHL.
• Players drafted between 2009 and 2014 who have not yet reached 100 games. For these players it is too early to call which of the first two categories they will fall into in the future.

In Part I, we will look at the WHL forwards that project to have 50+ point potential.

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT	G	A	P
MATHEW BARZAL	C	R	5.11	175	17.09	48.41	65.50

 100+ NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	YEAR	#	G	A	P
B SCHENN	6.00	193	2009	5	25.69	41.31	67.00
S WEISS	6.00	185	2001	4	28.81	37.87	66.69
C GIROUX	5.11	172	2006	22	25.46	40.78	66.24
R TORRES	5.11	200	2000	5	32.87	32.68	65.55
D MACKENZIE	5.10	170	1999	128	18.16	46.91	65.07
C EMMERTON	6.00	190	2006	41	19.92	45.05	64.97
N KADRI	6.00	177	2009	7	21.88	42.45	64.33
M DUCHENE	6.00	196	2009	3	27.73	36.37	64.10

<100 NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	YEAR	#	G	A	P
J PAPINEAU	5.10	166	1998	46	28.83	37.88	66.72
B LYSAK	6.00	190	1999	49	29.99	36.60	66.59
Y LEHOUX	6.00	190	2000	86	21.79	42.65	64.44
E O’DELL	6.00	195	2008	39	28.91	34.97	63.88

DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	YEAR	#	G	A	P
M DOMI	5.10	194	2013	12	28.81	37.97	66.78
S PRINCE	5.11	190	2011	61	20.50	45.97	66.47
Z PHILLIPS	6.00	180	2011	28	24.63	40.49	65.12
N GOLDOBIN	6.00	185	2014	27	26.60	37.79	64.39
G MCKEGG	6.00	200	2010	62	27.86	36.28	64.14

Average Pick: 36.8

Top 10 Picks: 5

1^st Round Picks: 9/17 (52.9%)

2nd Round Picks: 4/17 (23.5%)

3rd Round Picks: 3/17 (17.6%)

5th Round Picks: 1/17 (5.9%)

With Barzal, he is a highly rated prospect that will likely go in the top 15 and probably top 10. If we compare him with just those prospects in that range, they are Schenn, Weiss, Torres, Kadri, Duchene and Domi. You can also include Giroux, who was a steal at 22^nd overall, and that is a pretty darn good group of hockey players. Based on the stats and comparables, Barzal projects to have 1^st line centre upside.

 

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT	G	A	P
NICK MERKLEY	C	R	5.11	191	13.31	50.81	64.12

100+ NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	YEAR	#	G	A	P
R TORRES	5.11	200	2000	5	32.87	32.68	65.55
D MACKENZIE	5.10	170	1999	128	18.16	46.91	65.07
C EMMERTON	6.00	190	2006	41	19.92	45.05	64.97
N KADRI	6.00	177	2009	7	21.88	42.45	64.33
M DUCHENE	6.00	196	2009	3	27.73	36.37	64.10
M RICHARDS	6.00	192	2003	24	25.77	37.88	63.65
J KOLNIK	5.10	180	1999	101	33.93	29.50	63.43
M ZIGOMANIS	6.00	175	1999	64	20.32	42.39	62.72

<100 NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	YEAR	#	G	A	P
Y LEHOUX	6.00	190	2000	86	21.79	42.65	64.44
E O’DELL	6.00	195	2008	39	28.91	34.97	63.88
M DANTON	5.10	190	1999	UD	27.77	35.72	63.50
D MILROY	6.00	190	2001	37	26.20	36.96	63.15
A BOURRET	5.10	211	2005	16	24.44	38.62	63.06

DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	YEAR	#	G	A	P
Z PHILLIPS	6.00	180	2011	28	24.63	40.49	65.12
N GOLDOBIN	6.00	185	2014	27	26.60	37.79	64.39
G MCKEGG	6.00	200	2010	62	27.86	36.28	64.14

 Average Pick: 44.5 (excludes M Danton)

Top 10 Picks: 3

1^st Round Picks: 7/16 (43.8%)

2nd Round Picks: 3/16 (18.8%)

3rd Round Picks: 3/16 (18.8%)

4th Round Picks: 1/16 (6.3%)

5th Round Picks: 1/16 (6.3%)

Undrafted Picks: 1/16 (6.3%)

Merkley is a player that will likely be a mid to late 1^st rounder which puts him in the same category as Bourret, M. Richards, Phillips and Goldobin. There is an outside chance that Merkley ends up in the Kadri or Duchene level of player but he is likely a notch down from them in terms of upside.

 

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT	G	A	P
JANSEN HARKINS	C	L	6.01	180	15.00	44.30	59.30

100+ NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	YEAR	#	G	A	P
J CHEECHOO	6.00	190	1998	29	25.65	34.63	60.28
J LUNDMARK	6.00	174	1999	9	26.91	33.12	60.03
P BERGERON	6.00	190	2003	45	19.89	39.94	59.83
M STAJAN	6.01	190	2002	57	22.32	37.48	59.80
R SCHREMP	6.00	185	2004	25	27.01	32.71	59.72
M POULIOT	6.02	188	2003	22	26.45	33.04	59.49
M OUELLET	6.01	200	2000	124	24.41	34.96	59.37
B JENNER	6.02	204	2011	37	24.48	34.27	58.76

<100 NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	YEAR	#	G	A	P
J HENNESSY	6.00	194	2003	43	22.60	37.31	59.91
T BELL	6.00	182	2000	71	20.68	37.75	58.43
J HEEREMA	6.01	190	1998	11	27.50	30.84	58.33
M TESSIER	6.02	200	2002	76	18.55	39.35	57.89

DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	YEAR	#	G	A	P
W CARRIER	6.01	194	2013	57	23.41	37.18	60.60
K RYCHEL	6.01	202	2013	19	27.98	31.96	59.94
N SCHERBAK	6.02	174	2014	26	21.92	37.50	59.42
V ZYKOV	6.02	215	2013	37	31.19	27.84	59.03
T RATTIE	6.00	176	2011	32	21.82	37.13	58.95
P DANAULT	6.00	187	2011	26	19.85	38.90	58.75
M MCNEIL	6.02	210	2011	18	23.91	34.58	58.49
B PERLINI	6.02	205	2014	12	28.20	30.04	58.24
P STRAKA	6.01	186	2010	55	24.13	33.91	58.03

Average Pick: 39.6

Top 10 Picks: 1

1^st Round Picks: 10/21 (47.6%)

2nd Round Picks: 8/21 (38.1%)

3rd Round Picks: 2/21 (9.5%)

5th Round Picks: 1/21 (4.8%)

Many of the comparables for Harkins are in the mid 1^st round to late 1^st round, which is where many project him to go. Players like Cheechoo, Schremp, M. Pouliot, Rychel, Scherbak, Danault and McNeil went in this range so we would generally expect to project a player with 2^nd line upside for someone with Harkins stats.

 

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT	G	A	P
JAKE DEBRUSK	LW	L	6.00	174	28.54	25.37	53.92

100+ NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	YEAR	#	G	A	P
A VERMETTE	6.01	185	2000	55	24.03	30.73	54.76
S OTT	6.01	184	2000	25	20.63	33.59	54.22
E ETEM	6.01	197	2010	29	31.10	22.21	53.31
R O’REILLY	6.00	205	2009	33	11.80	41.40	53.21
C O’REILLY	5.11	179	2005	150	18.76	34.11	52.87
J MCGINN	6.00	200	2006	36	24.53	28.26	52.79
B RICHARDSON	5.11	189	2003	163	22.77	30.00	52.77
C CLUTTERBUCK	5.11	185	2006	72	26.32	26.42	52.74

<100 NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	YEAR	#	G	A	P
E BROPHEY	6.01	202	2005	68	24.77	30.38	55.15
M TANGUAY	5.11	174	2007	69	22.06	33.09	55.14
T REDENBACH	6.00	195	2003	77	18.57	36.43	55.00
L MACMILLAN	6.01	205	2007	19	21.20	33.60	54.80
A SNOW	6.01	204	2006	90	24.25	30.13	54.39
M GRATCHEV	5.11	198	2007	106	23.39	30.97	54.36
M REPIK	5.11	184	2007	40	23.87	30.47	54.34
E LAPLANTE	6.01	196	1998	65	23.11	30.41	53.52
R HOLZAPFEL	6.00	189	2006	43	19.04	34.36	53.40
H CARPENTIER	6.01	199	2006	118	22.93	30.44	53.36
O FORTIER	6.00	183	2007	65	22.53	30.73	53.25
M WAHL	6.00	200	2008	48	17.06	35.97	53.02
K MCARDLE	6.00	205	2005	20	25.88	27.04	52.92

DRAFTED 2009-2014

NAME	HT	WT	YEAR	#	G	A	P
J LODGE	6.01	172	2013	84	21.73	33.47	55.20
E POIRIER	6.01	183	2013	22	26.04	29.03	55.08
V DUNN	5.11	186	2013	138	24.64	29.95	54.59
A DUCLAIR	5.11	191	2013	80	21.61	32.62	54.22
V TROCHECK	6.00	190	2011	64	24.12	30.01	54.13
J MCCANN	6.01	175	2014	24	24.04	30.04	54.07
M ROY	6.00	185	2013	56	21.61	32.42	54.04
O BJORKSTRAND	6.00	168	2013	89	25.52	28.50	54.02
B ROSS	6.01	183	2010	43	20.39	33.37	53.76
B HORVAT	6.00	203	2013	9	30.56	22.93	53.48
J KNIGHT	5.11	196	2010	32	34.33	18.74	53.07
T BOZON	6.01	199	2012	64	28.56	24.17	52.73

Average Pick: 63.5

Top 10 Picks: 1

1^st Round Picks: 7/33 (21.2%)

2nd Round Picks: 9/33 (27.3%)

3rd Round Picks: 12/33 (36.4%)

4th Round Picks: 2/33 (6.1%)

5th Round Picks: 3/33 (9.1%)

There are many players that fall in the same range as Debrusk and when you compare the average pick of his comparables and the % of 1^st round picks, it is a big drop off from Harkins. Debrusk is seen as a player that could be an early 2^nd round selection and players that went in this range are R. O’Reilley, McGinn, Repik, Holzapfel, Wahl, Ross and Knight. It is a mixed bag of players that project mainly to be 2^nd or 3^rd line players.

 

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT	G	A	P
PAUL BITTNER	LW	L	6.04	204	23.18	28.93	52.11

 100+ NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	YEAR	#	G	A	P
Z KASSIAN	6.03	215	2009	13	18.41	34.86	53.27
P HOLLAND	6.02	198	2009	15	24.46	28.37	52.84
K BEECH	6.03	185	1999	7	20.58	32.25	52.83
B POULIOT	6.03	190	2005	4	23.71	27.88	51.59
C ARMSTRONG	6.02	174	2001	21	24.89	26.50	51.39

<100 NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	YEAR	#	G	A	P
K MCLEOD	6.05	210	2001	53	29.79	23.49	53.28
S SHIPLEY	6.03	210	2010	98	19.77	33.39	53.16
M STEFANOVICH	6.02	202	2008	98	25.94	26.86	52.80
P TATICEK	6.02	180	2002	9	18.11	34.37	52.47
M SAUVE	6.02	184	2008	47	21.20	31.02	52.22
R COPLEY	6.02	215	1998	40	23.19	29.03	52.22
A HENRICH	6.04	216	2002	60	27.30	24.85	52.15
P CORMIER	6.02	215	2008	54	23.72	27.96	51.68
J STAAL	6.04	210	2008	49	22.14	29.52	51.66
J FILEWICH	6.02	200	2003	70	25.21	26.25	51.46
K BEACH	6.03	210	2008	11	24.11	26.80	50.91

DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	YEAR	#	G	A	P
F GAUTHIER	6.04	215	2013	21	18.98	33.91	52.89
R FAKSA	6.03	213	2012	13	23.01	28.96	51.97
B RITCHIE	6.04	215	2011	44	26.61	25.12	51.72
E CORNEL	6.02	184	2014	44	22.29	28.93	51.22
T JURCO	6.02	193	2011	35	25.71	25.38	51.10

Average Pick: 60.0

Top 10 Picks: 3

1^st Round Picks: 9/21 (42.9%)

2nd Round Picks: 9/21 (42.9%)

3rd Round Picks: 1/21 (4.8%)

4th Round Picks: 2/21 (9.5%)

It is surprising to see how many big men in this range are busts. However, of the 9 players taken in the 1^st round, 5 have played 100+ games while Faksa and Gauthier are still to be determined. The players taken in the first round (like Bittner is projected) have a high probability of becoming useful NHL players though more of the 2^nd or 3^rd line variety.

 

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT	G	A	P
TYLER SOY	C	L	6.00	172	21.98	28.28	50.26

100+ NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	YEAR	#	G	A	P
L REDDOX	5.11	185	2004	112	26.38	25.12	51.49
D CARCILLO	5.11	191	2003	73	21.45	29.88	51.33
N FOLIGNO	6.00	195	2006	28	17.81	33.41	51.22
M TALBOT	5.11	185	2002	234	19.53	31.54	51.07
C EAKIN	6.00	189	2009	85	27.48	23.49	50.97
M RYDER	6.00	188	1998	216	27.29	22.84	50.12
B RADIVOJEVIC	6.00	186	1999	93	17.04	32.93	49.98
D SETOGUCHI	6.00	195	2005	8	25.66	24.13	49.79

<100 NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	YEAR	#	G	A	P
J AULIN	6.00	181	2000	47	15.75	35.65	51.40
B MAXWELL	6.01	190	2006	49	23.71	27.61	51.32
T KURKA	6.00	180	2000	32	28.94	22.19	51.14
R GARLOCK	6.01	202	2004	45	20.61	30.46	51.07
J TARDIF	6.00	210	2003	112	23.20	26.89	50.09
B KNOPP	6.01	190	2000	69	25.48	24.48	49.96
M DELISLE	6.01	215	2000	100	20.94	28.49	49.42

DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	YEAR	#	G	A	P
L DUAPHIN	6.00	180	2013	39	22.82	28.58	51.39
L FERRARO	6.00	170	2009	32	35.69	15.50	51.18
R RAKELL	6.01	195	2011	30	21.61	29.42	51.03
M LATTA	6.00	213	2009	72	19.41	31.53	50.94
S LAUGHTON	6.01	190	2012	20	20.14	30.56	50.70
S GALIEV	6.01	188	2010	86	14.12	36.11	50.23
S KOSMACHUK	6.00	189	2012	70	24.93	24.46	49.39
V KARABACEK	6.00	190	2014	49	22.70	26.51	49.21
B LEMIEUX	6.01	210	2014	31	25.87	23.32	49.18

Average Pick: 72.2

Top 10 Picks: 1

1^st Round Picks: 4/24 (16.7%)

2nd Round Picks: 8/24 (33.3%)

3rd Round Picks: 6/24 (25.0%)

4th Round Picks: 4/24 (16.7%)

5th Round Picks: 2/24 (8.3%)

With only 1 in 6 of his comparables being 1^st round choices, it is unlikely you would use a pick that high on Soy. Soy is a player that fluctuates on the draft board but is a likely 2^nd or 3^rd round choice. Players like Carcillo, Eakin, Talbot and Ryder demonstrate that there is some good 3rd round or later picks that are undervalued and overlooked.