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ANALYZING THE 2015 NHL DRAFT: OHL FORWARDS PART II

One way to evaluate prospects is by comparing them statistically against prior draft years. Typically, most people simply compare just points-per-game but that discounts the fact that different players score a different percentage of their points on the power play versus at even strength. I created what I call the NHL Projection formula (NHLP), which is a formula that takes a CHL player’s non-power play and power play stats in their first draft eligible year and projects what they will produce in their best NHL season. It also takes age into account, which I have found has an effect on only power play production. I have prorated the numbers over an 82 game season.

In Part II, we will look at the OHL forwards that project to have 40-50 point potential in their best NHL season. We will than look at the players that are the most statistically comparable from past draft years. I have gone back and applied the NHLP formula to over 500+ players since the 1998 draft so there is just a couple to choose from. The comparable players will have an:

  • NHLP within +/- 2.5 %
  • Height within +/- 1 inch
  • For players 6’4+, the range of height for comparables will be any players over 6’2 due to lack of comparables.
  • For players 5’9 and shorter it will be any player less than 5’10.

When comparing, I have broken the players into three categories:

  • Players who played 100+ NHL Games
  • Players who have played less than 100 NHL Games and who became first draft eligible in 2008 or before.
  • Players drafted between 2009 and 2014 who have not yet reached 100 games. For these players it is too early to call which of the first two categories they will fall into in the future.
NAME POS ST HT WT
JEREMIAH ADDISON  LW  L 6.00 182
NHLP G A P
20.66 25.76 46.42

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME HT WT # G A P
MIKE FISHER 6.00 190 44 23.26 23.82 47.08
DANA TYRELL 5.11 180 47 21.54 24.72 46.26
TYLER KENNEDY 6.01 200 99 17.01 29.17 46.18
GREG CAMPBELL 6.00 192 67 13.67 32.41 46.08
DRAYSON BOWMAN 6.01 185 72 20.89 25.15 46.03
BOYD GORDON 6.00 195 17 20.57 25.40 45.97
JAY MCCLEMENT 6.01 191 57 27.63 18.20 45.83
ERIK CHRISTENSEN 6.00 190 69 16.71 29.06 45.77
PHILIPPE DUPUIS 6.00 195 104 19.33 26.43 45.76

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)

NAME HT WT # G A P
RYAN STONE 6.01 203 32 16.99 30.49 47.48
CODEY BURKI 6.01 195 59 20.64 26.77 47.41
JAKUB KLEPIS 6.01 200 16 11.04 36.08 47.12
RYAN HILLIER 6.00 198 84 16.73 29.69 46.42
DANICK PAQUETTE 6.01 206 64 30.91 15.27 46.18
TODD HORNUNG 6.00 200 59 23.27 22.53 45.80

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME HT WT # G A P
MIKE WINTHER 6.00 200 54 24.45 22.03 46.48
ALAN QUINE 5.11 195 85 22.62 23.80 46.42
CURTIS LAZAR 6.00 205 17 30.37 15.82 46.19
BRADY VAIL 6.00 198 94 19.37 26.56 45.93
LUKAS SUTTER 6.01 214 39 21.09 24.66 45.75

Average Pick: 59.0

Top 10 Picks: 0

1st Round Picks: 3/20 (15.0%)

2nd Round Picks: 8/20 (40.0%)

3rd Round Picks: 6/20 (30.0%)

4th Round Picks: 3/20 (15.0%)

70% of the comparable players for Addison were taken in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the draft and when looking only at the successful forwards with over 100+ NHL games, 6 of the 9 were taken between 44th and 72nd overall. In terms of comparables, Addison deserves consideration as a mid-second round to mid-third round choice. However, to warrant this high of a pick, Addison must demonstrate strong two-way play like the majority of the players with 100+ NHL games (Fisher, Tyrell, Kennedy, Campbell, Gordon, McClement).

NAME POS ST HT WT
MITCHELL STEPHENS  C  R 5.11 188
NHLP G A P
20.81 24.56 45.37

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME HT WT # G A P
DANA TYRELL 5.11 180 47 21.54 24.72 46.26
GREG CAMPBELL 6.00 192 67 13.67 32.41 46.08
BOYD GORDON 6.00 195 17 20.57 25.40 45.97
ERIK CHRISTENSEN 6.00 190 69 16.71 29.06 45.77
PHILIPPE DUPUIS 6.00 195 104 19.33 26.43 45.76
RYAN WHITE 6.00 213 66 17.41 27.57 44.97
MATT BELESKEY 6.00 207 112 22.03 22.88 44.90

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)

NAME HT WT # G A P
RYAN HILLIER 6.00 198 84 16.73 29.69 46.42
TODD HORNUNG 6.00 200 59 23.27 22.53 45.80
JOHN LAMMERS 5.11 186 86 20.88 24.21 45.09
JOZEF BALEJ 5.11 185 78 22.27 22.17 44.44

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME HT WT # G A P
MIKE WINTHER 6.00 200 54 24.45 22.03 46.48
ALAN QUINE 5.11 195 85 22.62 23.80 46.42
CURTIS LAZAR 6.00 205 17 30.37 15.82 46.19
BRADY VAIL 6.00 198 94 19.37 26.56 45.93
STEVEN HODGES 6.00 187 84 18.78 26.32 45.11
MARTIN FRK 6.00 203 49 22.30 22.39 44.69

Average Pick: 68.9

Top 10 Picks: 0

1st Round Picks: 2/17 (11.8%)

2nd Round Picks: 4/17 (23.5%)

3rd Round Picks: 8/17 (47.1%)

4th Round Picks: 3/17 (17.6%)

Stephens is similar to Addison, in terms of size and offensive production, so due to this they have many of the same comparable players. Just like with Addison, a player should showcase strong two-way play and hockey sense to make up for having average offensive skills and being slightly below average size. While there has been a couple of 1st round choices (Lazar and Gordon), typically a player like Stephens will go mid-second round or third round.

NAME POS ST HT WT
PETRUS PALMU  RW  L 5.06 172
NHLP G A P
24.65 20.68 45.34

 COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

None

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)

NAME HT WT # G A P
FELIX SCHUTZ 5.09 181 117 19.24 26.13 45.37

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

None

Average Pick: 117

Top 10 Picks: 0

4th Round Picks: 1/1 (100.0%)

To be 5’6 and drafted in the top 100 is an extremely rare accomplishment. With only one comparable in Felix Schutz, who was a 4th round pick, Palmu is not a player worth considering in the top 100. The likeliest scenario is that Palmu is passed over in the 2015 draft.

NAME POS ST HT WT
ZACHARY SENYSHYN RW  R 6.01 192
NHLP G A P
25.48 18.58 44.06

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME HT WT # G A P
RYAN WHITE 6.00 213 66 17.41 27.57 44.97
MATT BELESKEY 6.00 207 112 22.03 22.88 44.90
COLIN FRASER 6.01 175 69 16.98 27.62 44.60
RYANE CLOWE 6.02 190 175 27.94 16.51 44.45
MATT D’AGOSTINI 6.00 176 190 23.96 20.09 44.05
BLAIR JONES 6.02 207 102 13.61 30.32 43.93
ADAM HENRIQUE 6.00 196 82 19.07 24.85 43.92
CASEY CIZIKAS 6.00 185 92 21.33 22.53 43.86
MICHAEL GRABNER 6.01 177 14 32.12 11.52 43.64

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)

NAME HT WT # G A P
MATT KEITH 6.02 197 59 19.93 25.14 45.07
LANCE MONYCH 6.02 203 97 18.39 26.46 44.85
HARRISON REED 6.01 175 93 23.87 20.83 44.70
GREG WATSON 6.02 198 34 19.25 25.44 44.68
SPENCER MACHACEK 6.01 182 67 20.10 24.07 44.17
CHRIS DURAND 6.02 194 52 15.94 27.97 43.91
NATHAN SMITH 6.02 185 23 17.28 26.41 43.69
JAMIE ARNIEL 6.00 190 97 28.22 15.37 43.59
CHRIS NIELSEN 6.01 190 36 18.98 24.37 43.35

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME HT WT # G A P
STEVEN HODGES 6.00 187 84 18.78 26.32 45.11
ZACH NASTASIUK 6.02 202 48 21.16 23.80 44.96
MARTIN FRK 6.00 203 49 22.30 22.39 44.69
MAX REINHART 6.01 185 64 18.29 25.68 43.97
PHILIPPE PARADIS 6.02 212 27 16.08 27.80 43.88
TOMAS VINCOUR 6.02 204 129 19.16 24.56 43.73
JOSHUA LEIVO 6.01 191 86 19.17 24.43 43.60
GREG CHASE 6.00 188 188 15.36 27.92 43.28

Average Pick: 82.1

Top 10 Picks: 0

1st Round Picks: 3/26 (11.5%)

2nd Round Picks: 6/26 (23.1%)

3rd Round Picks: 7/26 (26.9%)

4th Round Picks: 6/26 (23.1%)

5th Round Picks: 1/26 (3.8%)

6th Round Picks: 1/26 (3.8%)

7th Round Picks: 2/26 (7.7%)

There are 9 comparables to have played over 100+ NHL games, with 8 of the 9 being 3rd round or later picks. Therefore, despite 1/3 of the picks being 1st or 2nd round picks, forwards of average size and stats tend not to turn out as wise early picks and you are better off waiting to see if the player slips to the 3rd round. In terms of stats and comparable players, Austin Wagner of the WHL is very similar with a NHLP of 44.29.

NAME POS ST HT WT
GRAHAM KNOTT  LW L 6.03 180
NHLP G A P
24.48 18.52 43.00

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME HT WT # G A P
BLAIR JONES 6.02 207 102 13.61 30.32 43.93
TOM WILSON 6.04 210 16 17.18 26.53 43.72
BRENT BURNS 6.04 183 20 17.15 26.42 43.57
MARK STONE 6.03 196 178 16.19 26.92 43.12
MAXIM LAPIERRE 6.02 205 61 20.40 22.07 42.46

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)

NAME HT WT # G A P
AKIM ALIU 6.03 216 56 18.79 25.16 43.95
CHRIS DURAND 6.02 194 52 15.94 27.97 43.91
NATHAN SMITH 6.02 185 23 17.28 26.41 43.69
PHIL MCRAE 6.03 200 33 18.04 25.28 43.33
ZDENEK BLATNY 6.02 190 68 25.63 17.33 42.96
ONDREJ FIALA 6.02 195 40 24.81 17.95 42.76

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME HT WT # G A P
DANIIL ZHARKOV 6.04 212 91 27.25 16.78 44.04
CARTER ASHTON 6.03 200 29 25.20 18.76 43.96
PHILIPPE PARADIS 6.02 212 27 16.08 27.80 43.88
TOMAS VINCOUR 6.02 204 129 19.16 24.56 43.73
JUSTIN BAILEY 6.03 202 52 19.78 23.93 43.70
BRETT BULMER 6.03 193 39 14.32 27.89 42.21

Average Pick: 59.8

Top 10 Picks: 0

1st Round Picks: 5/17 (29.4%)

2nd Round Picks: 6/17 (35.3%)

3rd Round Picks: 2/17 (11.8%)

4th Round Picks: 2/17 (11.8%)

5th Round Picks: 1/17 (5.9%)

6th Round Picks: 1/17 (5.9%)

The most common choice for a player like Knott is to be taken in the first two rounds. With Tom Wilson and Brent Burns being the only picks in the first two rounds to play over 100+ NHL games, it appears once again teams are overvaluing size and hoping a player is a late bloomer in terms of offensive skill. In most cases, a team would be better served waiting till at least the late 2nd round, if not the 3rd round for a big player with average skill.

NAME POS ST HT WT
ANTHONY CIRELLI  C  L 6.00 165
NHLP G A P
15.69 26.01 41.69

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME HT WT # G A P
MATTHEW LOMBARDI 6.00 190 215 17.45 25.04 42.49
DUSTIN BOYD 6.00 202 98 19.91 21.65 41.56
STEPHANE VEILLEUX 6.01 190 UD 14.36 26.97 41.33
MATT HALISCHUK 5.11 177 UD 17.25 23.49 40.74

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)

NAME HT WT # G A P
DANIEL BOIS 6.01 208 97 22.70 19.24 41.95
KRIS NEWBURY 5.11 192 UD 12.19 29.67 41.85
DAN COLLINS 6.01 209 90 23.21 18.61 41.82
JAMES LIVINGSTON 6.01 210 70 20.68 20.97 41.65
JUSTIN MAPLETOFT 6.01 185 130 22.28 19.10 41.38

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME HT WT # G A P
COLTON SISSONS 6.01 194 50 26.99 14.80 41.79
KEEGAN IVERSON 6.01 220 85 21.64 19.92 41.55
MIKE AMADIO 6.01 192 90 14.94 26.26 41.21
DYLAN SADOWEY 6.01 180 81 30.78 10.34 41.13
CHRIS TIERNEY 6.01 187 55 13.92 26.99 40.90
MATIA MARCANTUONI 6.00 202 92 26.59 14.23 40.82

Average Pick: 96.1

Top 10 Picks: 0

1st Round Picks: 0/15 (0.0%)

2nd Round Picks: 2/15 (13.3%)

3rd Round Picks: 5/15 (33.3%)

4th Round Picks: 3/15 (20.0%)

5th Round Picks: 1/15 (6.7%)

8th Round Picks: 1/15 (6.7%)

Undrafted Picks: 3/15 (20.0%)

13 of the 15 comparables for Cirelli were taken in the 3rd round or later, so that is a good starting point to use for Cirelli. In the WHL, Kolesar has a similar NHLP of 41.81 and similar comparables but the big difference is Kolesar has 50 lbs in weight on Cirelli and is the more attractive prospect. With his slight frame and the fact that all the players who played 100+ NHL games were 4th round or later picks, it suggest Cirelli should also be taken with at most a 4th round pick.

NAME POS ST HT WT
TRENT FOX  C  L 6.02 190
NHLP G A P
16.48 24.48 40.96

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME HT WT # G A P
STEPHANE VEILLEUX 6.01 190 UD 14.36 26.97 41.33
JAMES WRIGHT 6.03 200 117 16.11 24.45 40.55
MARCUS FOLIGNO 6.03 216 104 15.73 24.78 40.51
KRYS BARCH 6.02 200 106 12.27 27.95 40.22

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)

NAME HT WT # G A P
DANIEL BOIS 6.01 208 97 22.70 19.24 41.95
JOHN ARMSTRONG 6.02 205 87 17.34 24.49 41.83
DAN COLLINS 6.01 209 90 23.21 18.61 41.82
JAMES LIVINGSTON 6.01 210 70 20.68 20.97 41.65
JUSTIN MAPLETOFT 6.01 185 130 22.28 19.10 41.38
KRIS VERNARSKY 6.02 207 51 16.66 24.64 41.31
BRYCE SWAN 6.03 198 38 15.98 25.23 41.21
RICK KOZAK 6.02 190 95 23.34 17.69 41.03
RYAN BARNES 6.02 200 55 16.53 24.35 40.88

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME HT WT # G A P
COLTON SISSONS 6.01 194 50 26.99 14.80 41.79
KEEGAN IVERSON 6.01 220 85 21.64 19.92 41.55
MIKE AMADIO 6.01 192 90 14.94 26.26 41.21
DYLAN SADOWEY 6.01 180 81 30.78 10.34 41.13
CHRIS TIERNEY 6.01 187 55 13.92 26.99 40.90
CURTIS HAMILTON 6.03 206 48 19.12 21.64 40.77
LOGAN SHAW 6.03 190 76 23.68 16.39 40.08

Average Pick: 80.3

Top 10 Picks: 0

1st Round Picks: 0/0 (0.0%)

2nd Round Picks: 6/20 (30.0%)

3rd Round Picks: 8/20 (40.0%)

4th Round Picks: 4/20 (20.0%)

5th Round Picks: 1/20 (5.0%)

Undrafted Picks: 1/20 (5.0%)

There are 8 comparable players taken as a top 100 pick between 1998 and 2008 and they all failed to reach 100 NHL games. A player like Tierney may change that, being a late 2nd round pick, but it’s hard to justify more than a 3rd round pick on players like Fox. However, best value for this type of player is to wait till the 4th round and use your 3rd round pick on another player with higher upside.

NAME POS ST HT WT
HAYDEN MCCOOL LW  L 6.03 195
NHLP G A P
18.12 21.86 39.97

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME HT WT # G A P
JAMES WRIGHT 6.03 200 117 16.11 24.45 40.55
MARCUS FOLIGNO 6.03 216 104 15.73 24.78 40.51
KRYS BARCH 6.02 200 106 12.27 27.95 40.22
DUSTIN JEFFREY 6.03 199 ND 19.76 20.09 39.85
J-F JACQUES 6.04 223 68 15.16 24.58 39.74
BEN EAGER 6.02 215 23 13.18 26.28 39.46
JORDAN NOLAN 6.02 211 ND 15.92 23.05 38.97

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)

NAME HT WT # G A P
RYAN BARNES 6.02 200 55 16.53 24.35 40.88
OSKAR OSALA 6.04 220 97 17.57 23.22 40.79
AHREN NITTEL 6.03 215 85 25.81 13.51 39.32
ALEXANDRE GIROUX 6.03 180 213 16.75 22.36 39.11

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME HT WT # G A P
CURTIS HAMILTON 6.03 206 48 19.12 21.64 40.77
LOGAN SHAW 6.03 190 76 23.68 16.39 40.08
RYAN MACINNIS 6.04 185 43 18.30 21.43 39.73
PHIL LANE 6.03 205 52 24.08 15.06 39.14

Average Pick: 83.6

Top 10 Picks: 0

1st Round Picks: 1/15 (6.7%)

2nd Round Picks: 4/15 (26.7%)

3rd Round Picks: 3/15 (20.0%)

4th Round Picks: 4/15 (26.7%)

8th Round Picks: 1/15 (6.7%)

Undrafted Picks: 2/15 (13.3%)

McCool has comparables that range from a 1st round pick (Eager) to a couple of players passed over in their first eligible draft years (Jeffery and Nolan). Using a first round pick on a player with at best 3rd line upside and more likely 4th line seems crazy to me. Like with Fox, I would pass over using a 2nd round pick and would only consider using a 3rd or later on McCool, with a 4th rounder being of best value.

CONCLUSION

While there is a lot of top end talent in the OHL, they are lacking for depth role players that fall with a NHLP in the 40-50 point range in comparison to the WHL (OHL:8, WHL: 14). Out of these eight OHL forwards, we can rule out Palmu as not having enough offensive production for a 5’6 player and he will need a breakout season next year to be drafted. Cirelli is a player that does warrant a draft pick but as far as my top 100, his lack of offensive production for a 160lb player scares me off at the moment. McCool and Fox have the size but their lack of offensive production makes me believe a 4th round or later pick would be better used in such a deep draft year.

That leaves four players that have the stats and comparable players to warrant consideration as a top 100 pick. Knott has size and some offensive skill and will likely go higher than I rank him as I currently value him as a 3rd round pick. Senyshyn is another player currently worth a look in the third round but he could move up or down based on what the draft guides have to say. Addison both project to be worth a mid-2nd round to mid-3rd round pick, if the scouting reports have positive things to say about their all-around game. If not than a 4th round or later pick would best be used.

After looking at the players that project to have 40+ point potential for their best NHL season I have narrowed them down to these thirteen players as worth considering for my top 100 (the NHLP has been updated with the stats from the Erie/Oshawa series):

NAME HT WT G A P
CONNOR MCDAVID 6.01 195 41.42 61.65 103.07
MITCHELL MARNER 5.11 160 33.97 53.85 87.82
DYLAN STROME 6.03 185 28.73 48.75 77.48
TRAVIS KONECNY 5.10 175 25.76 35.44 61.20
DANTE SALITURO 5.08 178 28.05 30.80 58.85
BLAKE SPEERS 5.11 181 19.86 35.32 55.18
LAWSON CROUSE 6.04 215 31.11 22.34 53.46
NIKITA KOROSTELEV 6.01 195 25.12 26.68 51.80
PAVEL ZACHA 6.03 210 26.09 24.85 50.94
JEREMIAH ADDISON 6.00 182 20.66 25.76 46.42
MITCHELL STEPHENS 5.11 188 20.81 24.56 45.37
ZACHARY SENYSHYN 6.01 192 25.48 18.58 44.06
GRAHAM KNOTT 6.03 190 24.48 18.52 43.00

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