ANALYZING THE 2015 NHL DRAFT: QMJHL FORWARDS PART I

8 thoughts on “ANALYZING THE 2015 NHL DRAFT: QMJHL FORWARDS PART I”

  1. This is great read, I really love it.

    Are you going to this also for other guys playing in Europe or in America? And have you thought about formula for them? If you want, I can help you find their powerplay and non-powerplay stats, if that would make it easier for your and that you could also project them?

    I just wanted to say, that you make really good analysis, I can’t wait for your next article.

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    1. I am going to apply it to the 2015 USHL,US NTDP and to NCAA. As for Europe I am running out of time and may not get to Super elit J20 or MHL like I wanted to. As for past data I do not have that info. For the US and European players I was planning to use the CHL formula and than leave room for interpretation based on perceived quality of the league. Nhl equivalencies for European junior leagues are needed. Now if you have any power play data I am more than willing to except help. Much thanks.

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  2. Do you need powerplay stats for Rantanen or just for guys playing in junior leagues? I’m trying to find as much information as I can get you, hopefully I’ll have more time in next days.

    Is this enough information or you need something more?
    example Rantanen
    56 games played in Liiga – 28 points.
    6 even strength goals, 15 even strength assists (11 of those were primary assists).
    3 powerplay goals, 4 powerplay assists (2 of those were primary).

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    1. That is exactly what I need and it does not have to be junior players. I really appreciate any help so thank you kindly. (I also do not need to know whether primary assists or not). For Liiga players I will adjust their stats by a factor of 1.8 based on NHL equivalencies (.54/.3) and from there I will apply the formula. For Rantanen his adjusted numbers give him a projection of 48.90. These numbers do not look great but lets just break it down between non PP scoring and PP scoring projections and make some comparisons.

      Svechnikov 47.31
      Rantanen 41.37
      Crouse 39.44
      Zacha 35.58

      PP
      Svechnikov 17.49
      Rantanen 7.53
      Crouse 14.02
      Zacha 15.36

      Basically lack of PP time is giving low projections for Rantanen. If we adjust his PP scoring to the average PP scoring of the three CHL players his number jumps from 48.9 to 57.0 which would put him 2nd out of the four players. With evaluating European pros there are more assumptions we have to make (significantly less PP ice time, possibly less even strength ice time, NHL equivalency) which make the formula less accurate.

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      1. This is great read, thank you.

        You are using NHL equivalence numbers posted on http://www.behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.php, am I correct?

        I’ve read a few articles, that stated that equivalence numbers have dropped, which is probably correct. But nonetheless, I found some additional equivalences.

        Allsvenskan: 0,36 (http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/11/5/allsvenskan-nhl-equilvance)

        I found this article about European leagues: http://www.puckworlds.com/2011/8/4/2344313/how-good-is-the-khl.
        Plus, its author posted this comment:
        KHL: 0.65
        SHL: 0.49
        Liiga: 0.42
        NLA: 0.39
        Czech: 0.38
        VHL (Rus2): 0.37
        Slovak: 0.33
        MHL (Russian Jrs): 0.21
        on this page: http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/7/28/forwards-and-nhle-2012-draft.

        I do believe that leagues are a little bit better than this guy posted, but I can’t figure out how much.

        But for missing leagues, this is definitely helpful information and I prorated them to be in line with equivalence numbers you are using:
        VHL: 0,47
        Slovak: 0,42
        MHL: 0,268
        But I believe those aren’t correct, I believe they should be a little bit lower,I think that VHL is worse than NLA.

        I will do my own calculations in next weeks, hopefully I’ll be done at least 1 week before draft, so that you’ll be able to use it in your calculations.

        I can’t wait your articles about American prospects.

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  3. Roope Hintz
    42 games played in Liiga – 17 points.
    5 even strength goals, 12 even strength assists (8 of those were primary assists).
    No powerplay points, if I checked correctly he didn’t play on PP at all.

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  4. I know I’m posting way too much comments on your blog, but I have a short question regarding your formula.

    When I used it for Rantanen, I got this numbers:
    ((0.231+.404*0,675) + (1.694+(0.363*0,225)-(0.089*0,877049180327868)) )*82
    Non-PP points: 41,3034
    PP points: 139,2047

    Is there a mistake in your formula or I did something wrong, since I can’t figure out correct PP numbers, it is always way too high, should it be (0,1694+(0,363*PPpoints/G)-(0,089*age on 15.9.2015)?
    In such case his numbers are:
    Non-PP points remain the same, 41,3034
    PP points change and are: 14,1874

    Thank you for your answer and I’m sorry that I’ve taken you away some precious time.

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