ANALYZING THE 2015 NHL DRAFT: QMJHL FORWARDS PART I

One way to evaluate prospects is by comparing them statistically against prior draft years. Typically, most people simply compare just points-per-game but that discounts the fact that different players score a different percentage of their points on the power play versus at even strength. I created what I call the NHL Projection formula (NHLP), which is a formula that takes a CHL player’s non-power play and power play stats in their first draft eligible year and projects what they will produce in their best NHL season. It also takes age into account, which I have found has an effect on only power play production. I have prorated the numbers over an 82 game season. In Part I, we will look at the QMJHL forwards that project to have 60+ point potential in their best NHL season. We will than look at the players that are the most statistically comparable from past draft years. I have gone back and applied the NHLP formula to over 500+ players since the 1998 draft so there is just a couple to choose from. The criteria for comparable players is that they will have:

• NHLP within +/- 2.5 %
• Height within +/- 1 inch
• For players 6’4+, the range of height for comparables will be any players over 6’2 due to lack of comparables.
• For players 5’9 and shorter it will be any player less than 5’10.

When comparing, I have broken the players into three categories:

• Players who played 100+ NHL Games
• Players whose first draft eligible year is 2008 or previous and they have yet to play in 100 NHL games.
• Players drafted between 2009 and 2014 who have not yet reached 100 games. For these players it is too early to call which of the first two categories they will fall into in the future.

 

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
ANTHONY BEAUVILLIER	C	L	5.10	173
NHLP	G	A	P
	30.92	36.34	67.26

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
NAIL YAKUPOV	5.11	190	1	31.05	37.13	68.18
CLAUDE GIROUX	5.11	172	22	25.46	40.78	66.24

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)<100 NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
JUSTIN PAPINEAU	5.10	166	46	28.83	37.88	66.72

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
JORDAN WEAL	5.10	171	70	23.86	43.98	67.84
MAX DOMI	5.10	194	12	28.81	37.97	66.78
SHANE PRINCE	5.11	190	61	20.50	45.97	66.47

Average Pick: 35.3

Top 10 Picks: 1

1^st Round Picks: 3/6 (50.0%)

2nd Round Picks: 1/6 (16.7%)

3rd Round Picks: 2/6 (33.3%)

With small players, there can be very little that separates what makes a 1st round choice or what makes a 3rd round choice. Qualities such as skating and the ability to play in the tough offensive areas are two traits that I find scouts will focus on when evaluating a forward like Beauvillier. With it a deep draft and the lack of buzz around Beauvillier as a 1st round choice, he is most likely to be either a 2nd or 3rd round pick.

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
TIMO MEIER	RW	L	6.01	209
NHLP	G	A	P
	30.43	36.06	66.49

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
STEVE BERNIER	6.02	225	16	33.57	33.89	67.46
OLEG SAPRYKIN	6.01	175	11	32.17	35.17	67.34
BOBBY RYAN	6.01	215	2	27.31	39.82	67.14
BRAYDEN SCHENN	6.00	193	5	25.69	41.31	67.00
STEPHEN WEISS	6.00	185	4	28.81	37.87	66.69
JOFFREY LUPUL	6.02	204	7	34.84	31.40	66.24
CORY EMMERTON	6.00	190	41	19.92	45.05	64.97

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
FRANCOIS BOUCHARD	6.01	180	35	23.12	44.37	67.49
BRETT LYSAK	6.00	190	49	29.99	36.60	66.59

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
MIKHAIL GRIGORENKO	6.02	191	12	31.19	36.17	67.36
IVAN BARBASHEV	6.01	185	33	25.88	40.58	66.47
ZACK PHILLIPS	6.00	180	28	24.63	40.49	65.12

Average Pick: 20.3

Top 10 Picks: 4

1^st Round Picks: 8/12 (66.7%)

2^nd Round Picks: 4/12 (33.3%)

Meier is a player that has continued to move up the rankings and is considered a likely top 15 choice at this point. When looking at the comparables forwards taken in the top 20 in 2009 or earlier, all of them have gone on to play 100+ NHL games with. If Meier follows a similar trend, he is a safe pick and a good bet to be a NHL pro with top six upside.

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
EVGENY SVECHNIKOV	LW	L	6.02	199
NHLP	G	A	P
	25.65	39.15	64.80

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
JOFFREY LUPUL	6.02	204	7	34.84	31.40	66.24
JOSHUA BAILEY	6.01	195	9	19.84	44.36	64.20
SCOTT HARTNELL	6.02	185	6	23.06	41.14	64.20
NATHAN HORTON	6.02	195	3	32.52	31.38	63.90
SIMON GAGNE	6.01	172	22	31.43	32.46	63.89

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
ANGELO ESPOSITO	6.01	190	20	24.38	39.85	64.23

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
SCOTT GLENNIE	6.02	192	8	22.58	41.86	64.44

Average Pick: 10.7

Top 10 Picks: 5

1st Round Picks: 7/7 (100.0%)

Forwards that are 6’2 and have an NHLP of 60+ are rare players and all but one of them have been taken as first round picks (Brett MacLean went 32nd in 2007). In most years if a player puts up Svechnikov’s numbers, he would be a lock for a top 10 pick, but that is not the case this year. Either Svechnikov has a knock on his game that is dragging him down to being considered a mid 1st round pick or he is being undervalued. Time will tell.

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
ANTHONY RICHARD	C	L	5.10	163
NHLP	G	A	P
	33.91	30.11	64.02

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
RAFFI TORRES	5.11	200	5	32.87	32.68	65.55
DEREK MACKENZIE	5.10	170	128	18.16	46.91	65.07
JURAJ KOLNIK	5.10	180	101	33.93	29.50	63.43
DEREK ROY	5.09	185	32	31.90	30.95	62.84

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
MIKE DANTON	5.10	190	UD	27.77	35.72	63.50
ALEX BOURRET	5.10	211	16	24.44	38.62	63.06

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
BRAYDEN POINT	5.10	160	79	24.08	38.60	62.68

Average Pick: 90.6

Top 10 Picks: 1

1^st Round Picks: 2/7 (28.6%)

2nd Round Picks: 1/7 (14.3%)

3rd Round Picks: 1/7 (14.3%)

4th Round Picks: 1/7 (14.3%)

5th Round Picks: 1/7 (14.3%)

Undrafted Picks: 1/7 (14.3%)

5’10 forwards like Richard are sometimes chosen as 1st round or early 2nd round picks but they need to have some qualities and skills that draws a scout towards them. Otherwise there is a good chance that they get passed over due to size and could slide to being a 3rd round or later pick. In the case of Richard, the latter is more likely, but his offensive skills warrant top 100 consideration.

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
DANIEL SPRONG	RW	R	6.00	180
NHLP	G	A	P
	29.53	33.07	62.59

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
MATT DUCHENE	6.00	196	3	27.73	36.37	64.10
SIMON GAGNE	6.01	172	22	31.43	32.46	63.89
MIKE RICHARDS	6.00	192	24	25.77	37.88	63.65
GUILLAUME LATENDRESSE	6.01	225	45	23.96	39.18	63.14
MIKE ZIGOMANIS	6.00	175	64	20.32	42.39	62.72
MIKKEL BOEDKER	5.11	201	8	23.88	38.08	61.97
DUSTIN BROWN	6.01	203	13	28.48	33.35	61.83
TYLER TOFFOLI	6.00	186	47	29.64	32.18	61.82
SCOTTIE UPSHALL	6.00	182	6	23.47	37.90	61.37
DAN FRITSCHE	6.01	194	46	27.82	33.43	61.25
GABRIEL LANDESKOG	6.01	207	2	33.16	28.00	61.16
BRAD BOYES	6.00	168	24	27.40	33.66	61.07

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
ERIC O’DELL	6.00	195	39	28.91	34.97	63.88
DUNCAN MILROY	6.00	190	37	26.20	36.96	63.15
NICOLAS CORBEIL	5.11	172	88	24.47	37.57	62.04
MAREK ZAGRAPAN	6.00	200	13	26.52	35.27	61.79

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
GREG MCKEGG	6.00	200	62	27.86	36.28	64.14
JOSH HO SANG	5.11	166	28	23.20	38.15	61.34
MATT PEUMPEL	6.00	208	24	31.01	30.04	61.06

Average Pick: 31.3

Top 10 Picks: 4

1^st Round Picks: 11/19 (57.9%)

2nd Round Picks: 5/19 (26.3%)

3rd Round Picks: 3/19 (15.8%)

With 16 of 19 comparables being picked in the top 50, that is a likely destination for Sprong. What I like to see, when looking at the comparables, is a high percentage of players in the 100+ NHL game category. When you rule out players drafted after 2009 with less than 100 NHL games, there is 12 of 16 (75%) of the comparables players that have over 100 NHL games played. Players with Sprong’s height and numbers are a good bet to become solid pros, generally with top six upside.

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
FILIP CHLAPIK	C	L	6.01	196
NHLP	G	A	P
	25.61	35.12	60.73

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
CHRIS STEWART	6.02	226	18	26.73	35.13	61.86
SEAN MONAHAN	6.02	193	6	24.63	37.20	61.83
DUSTIN BROWN	6.01	203	13	28.48	33.35	61.83
TYLER TOFFOLI	6.00	186	47	29.64	32.18	61.82
JAMES SHEPPARD	6.02	213	9	22.91	38.50	61.41
SCOTTIE UPSHALL	6.00	182	6	23.47	37.90	61.37
DAN FRITSCHE	6.01	194	46	27.82	33.43	61.25
GABRIEL LANDESKOG	6.01	207	2	33.16	28.00	61.16
BRAD BOYES	6.00	168	24	27.40	33.66	61.07
CODY HODGSON	6.00	188	10	32.39	28.50	60.89
JONATHAN CHEECHOO	6.00	190	29	25.65	34.63	60.28
JAMIE LUNDMARK	6.00	174	9	26.91	33.12	60.03
PATRICE BERGERON	6.00	190	45	19.89	39.94	59.83
MATTHEW STAJAN	6.01	190	57	22.32	37.48	59.80
ROB SCHREMP	6.00	185	25	27.01	32.71	59.72
MARC POULIOT	6.02	188	22	26.45	33.04	59.49
MICHEL OUELLET	6.01	200	124	24.41	34.96	59.37

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
MAREK ZAGRAPAN	6.00	200	13	26.52	35.27	61.79
JOSH HENNESSY	6.00	194	43	22.60	37.31	59.91

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
BRETT CONNOLLY	6.02	203	6	32.30	29.53	61.82
MATT PEUMPEL	6.00	208	24	31.01	30.04	61.06
WILLIAM CARRIER	6.01	194	57	23.41	37.18	60.60
KERBY RYCHEL	6.01	202	19	27.98	31.96	59.94
NIKITA SCHERBAK	6.02	174	26	21.92	37.50	59.42

Average Pick: 28.3

Top 10 Picks: 7

1^st Round Picks: 17/24 (70.8%)

2nd Round Picks: 6/24 (25.0%)

5th Round Picks: 1/24 (4.2%)

With 70% of the comparable forwards being 1st round picks, Chlapik is the type of centre you would typically expect to see in the first round of all the draft rankings. This is not the case this year and Chlapik seems like he may fall into the group of players taken in the 2nd round. If we rule out the younger players that have yet to play 100 games, almost 90% of the comparable forwards have gone on to play 100+ NHL games. The numbers strongly suggest, Chlapik deserves to get 1st round consideration.

CONCLUSION

Using the NHLP formula, out of the three leagues in the CHL, the QMJHL has the most top end depth with 6 players projecting to have 60+ point potential for their best NHL season. In comparison, the OHL had 4 while the WHL only had two. In terms of offensive talent, this is one of the best years in recent memory for the Q. Despite that talent in the Q, there may be more players taken in the first round from the OHL as small players like Beauvillier and Richard will likely slide to 2nd or 3rd round choices at best. Svechnikov and Meier on the other hand, are all but guaranteed first round choices and statistically warrant consideration as top 10 picks. Meanwhile, Sprong and Chlapik are both players that would generally be considered consensus first round choices, but due to the depth of the draft, may slide to the second round. In the case of Sprong and Chlapik, the success of the comparable players in their range strongly suggest taking them as first round picks and that the players from the QMJHL may be getting underrated from the scouts. This is a draft year in which your best bet at stealing a skilled offensive player is to put your focus on the QMJHL.