ANALYZING THE 2015 NHL DRAFT: QMJHL FORWARDS PART II

One way to evaluate prospects is by comparing them statistically against prior draft years. Typically, most people simply compare just points-per-game but that discounts the fact that different players score a different percentage of their points on the power play versus at even strength. I created what I call the NHL Projection formula (NHLP), which is a formula that takes a CHL player’s non-power play and power play stats in their first draft eligible year and projects what they will produce in their best NHL season. It also takes age into account, which I have found has an effect on only power play production. I have prorated the numbers over an 82 game season. In Part II, we will look at the QMJHL forwards that project to have 50-60 point potential in their best NHL season. We will than look at the players that are the most statistically comparable from past draft years. I have gone back and applied the NHLP formula to over 500+ players since the 1998 draft so there is just a couple to choose from. The criteria for comparable players is that they will have:

• NHLP within +/- 2.5 %
• Height within +/- 1 inch
• For players 6’4+, the range of height for comparables will be any players over 6’2 due to lack of comparables.
• For players 5’9 and shorter it will be any player less than 5’10.

When comparing, I have broken the players into three categories:

• Players who played 100+ NHL Games
• Players whose first draft eligible year is 2008 or previous and they have yet to play in 100 NHL games.
• Players drafted between 2009 and 2014 who have not yet reached 100 games. For these players it is too early to call which of the first two categories they will fall into in the future.

 

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
YAKOV TRENIN	LW	L	6.02	194
NHLP	G	A	P
	15.78	43.76	59.54

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
MATTHEW STAJAN	6.01	190	57	22.32	37.48	59.80
MARC POULIOT	6.02	188	22	26.45	33.04	59.49
MICHEL OUELLET	6.01	200	124	24.41	34.96	59.37
MARK BELL	6.03	180	8	33.38	25.91	59.29
BOONE JENNER	6.02	204	37	24.48	34.27	58.76
RYAN JOHANSEN	6.03	196	4	20.86	37.68	58.54
MARK SCHEIFELE	6.03	187	7	16.06	42.34	58.39

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
JEFF HEEREMA	6.01	190	11	27.50	30.84	58.33

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
WILLIAM CARRIER	6.01	194	57	23.41	37.18	60.60
KERBY RYCHEL	6.01	202	19	27.98	31.96	59.94
NIKITA SCHERBAK	6.02	174	26	21.92	37.50	59.42
VALENTIN ZYKOV	6.02	215	37	31.19	27.84	59.03
MARK MCNEIL	6.02	210	18	23.91	34.58	58.49
BRENDAN PERLINI	6.02	205	12	28.20	30.04	58.24
NICK RITCHIE	6.03	235	10	30.30	27.79	58.09

Average Pick: 29.9

Top 10 Picks: 4

1^st Round Picks: 10/15 (66.7%)

2nd Round Picks: 4/15 (26.7%)

5th Round Picks: 1/15 (6.7%)

With over 90% of his comparables being taken in the first two rounds, a player with Trenin’s size and offensive skill is unlikely to last long in the draft. In addition, only Heerema is on the list of forwards as not reaching 100 NHL games which makes a pick like Trenin an attractive option. While statistically Trenin appears to be an attractive package, it is only a starting point as the scouting reports will play a factor and in Trenin’s case it revolves around his skating.

 

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
DMYTRO TIMASHOV	LW	L	5.09	192
NHLP	G	A	P
	12.17	46.67	58.84

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
SEAN AVERY	5.10	188	UD	12.43	47.50	59.92
TYLER ENNIS	5.09	164	26	27.64	32.03	59.67
GILBERT BRULE	5.10	180	6	26.28	32.83	59.11

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
STEFAN LEGEIN	5.10	185	37	34.27	23.75	58.02
PETR VRANA	5.10	184	42	24.01	33.38	57.38

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
DANIEL AUDETTE	5.09	188	147	17.58	41.25	58.83
JEAN-GABRIEL PAGEAU	5.09	171	96	24.40	33.60	58.00
JAYCE HAWRYLUK	5.10	190	32	22.09	35.63	57.72

Average Pick: 80.6

Top 10 Picks: 1

1st Round Picks: 2/8 (25.0%)

2nd Round Picks: 3/8 (37.5%)

4th Round Picks: 1/8 (12.5%)

5th Round Picks: 1/8 (12.5%)

 Undrafted Picks: 1/8 (12.5%)

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
KAY SCHWERI	RW	L	5.10	175
NHLP	G	A	P
	11.00	47.74	58.74

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
SEAN AVERY	5.10	188	UD	12.43	47.50	59.92
TYLER ENNIS	5.09	164	26	27.64	32.03	59.67
JUSTIN WILLIAMS	5.11	180	28	27.51	31.98	59.49
STEVE DOWNIE	5.11	191	29	17.79	41.36	59.16
GILBERT BRULE	5.10	180	6	26.28	32.83	59.11
RICO FATA	5.11	201	6	34.05	24.36	58.41
JORDAN EBERLE	5.11	184	22	31.84	26.18	58.01

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
BOBBY HUGHES	5.11	180	123	29.12	30.37	59.49
ZACH HAMILL	5.11	190	8	20.92	37.78	58.71
STEFAN LEGEIN	5.10	185	37	34.27	23.75	58.02
DANIEL RYDER	5.11	180	74	23.85	33.98	57.83

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
PETR VRANA	5.10	184	42	24.01	33.38	57.38
HUNTER SHINKARUK	5.11	179	24	26.86	33.15	60.01
DANIEL AUDETTE	5.09	188	147	17.58	41.25	58.83
JEAN-GABRIEL PAGEAU	5.09	171	96	24.40	33.60	58.00
JAYCE HAWRYLUK	5.10	190	32	22.09	35.63	57.72

Average Pick: 59.9

Top 10 Picks: 3

1^st Round Picks: 8/16 (50.0%)

2nd Round Picks: 3/16 (18.8%)

3rd Round Picks: 1/16 (6.3%)

4th Round Picks: 1/16 (6.3%)

5th Round Picks: 2/16 (12.5%)

Undrafted Picks: 1/16 (6.3%)

With 11 of his 16 comparables being picked as top 42 picks, it is surprising that Schweri is not even in Central Scouting’s final rankings. As I mentioned in Part I, small players need to have some qualities and skills that draws a scout towards them, otherwise there is a good chance that they get passed over due to size. In the case of Schweri he falls in the latter category and is likely at best a 3rd round pick.

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
DENNIS YAN	LW	L	6.01	184
NHLP	G	A	P
	32.76	25.39	58.14

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
MARC POULIOT	6.02	188	22	26.45	33.04	59.49
MICHEL OUELLET	6.01	200	124	24.41	34.96	59.37
BOONE JENNER	6.02	204	37	24.48	34.27	58.76
NINO NIEDERREITER	6.02	203	5	33.32	24.06	57.38

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
THATCHER BELL	6.00	182	71	20.68	37.75	58.43
JEFF HEEREMA	6.01	190	11	27.50	30.84	58.33
MICHAEL TESSIER	6.02	200	76	18.55	39.35	57.89
ALEXANDRE PICARD	6.02	193	8	28.60	28.94	57.54

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
NIKITA SCHERBAK	6.02	174	26	21.92	37.50	59.42
VALENTIN ZYKOV	6.02	215	37	31.19	27.84	59.03
TY RATTIE	6.00	176	32	21.82	37.13	58.95
PHILLIP DANAULT	6.00	187	26	19.85	38.90	58.75
MARK MCNEIL	6.02	210	18	23.91	34.58	58.49
BRENDAN PERLINI	6.02	205	12	28.20	30.04	58.24
PETR STRAKA	6.01	186	55	24.13	33.91	58.03
STEFAN NOESEN	6.02	205	21	26.30	31.41	57.71
JAKE VIRTANEN	6.01	210	6	35.06	22.11	57.17
MICHAEL ST. CROIX	6.00	179	106	20.88	36.11	56.99
MICHAEL BOURNIVAL	6.00	187	71	23.17	33.76	56.93

Average Pick: 40.2

Top 10 Picks: 3

1^st Round Picks: 10/19 (52.6%)

2nd Round Picks: 4/19 (21.1%)

3rd Round Picks: 3/19 15.8%)

4th Round Picks: 1/19 (5.3%)

 5th Round Picks: 1/19 (5.3%)

With over half of his comparables being 1st round picks, Yan deserves at least a look as a potential last 1st round choice. In a deep draft year, Yan may not be able to crack the 1st round and could be more likely destined as a 2nd round choice. In terms of comparables forwards and their success rate in reaching 100 games, it has been 50-50 which would be fairly good value for a 2nd round pick.

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
NATHAN NOEL	C	R	5.11	172
NHLP	G	A	P
	23.71	31.76	55.47

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
ZACH BOYCHUK	5.10	180	14	28.59	28.25	56.84
DEVANTE SMITH-PELLY	6.00	216	42	27.54	28.68	56.22
DAVE BOLLAND	6.00	185	32	27.66	28.27	55.93
CHRIS KELLY	6.00	177	94	24.17	31.59	55.76
CLARKE MACARTHUR	6.00	180	74	18.66	37.02	55.68
TIM BRENT	6.00	180	37	18.50	36.99	55.49
SCOTT GOMEZ	5.11	185	27	13.28	42.02	55.29

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
NORM MILLEY	6.00	195	47	24.45	31.39	55.84
RUSLAN BASHKIROV	6.00	184	60	24.62	30.72	55.34
MAXIME TANGUAY	5.11	174	69	22.06	33.09	55.14
TYLER REDENBACH	6.00	195	77	18.57	36.43	55.00
MAXIME GRATCHEV	5.11	198	106	23.39	30.97	54.36
ROMAN BASHKIROV	5.10	166	UD	27.50	26.84	54.34
MICHAL REPIK	5.11	184	40	23.87	30.47	54.34

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
NICK COUSINS	5.11	177	68	24.64	32.09	56.73
DANIEL CATENACCI	5.10	191	77	20.67	35.64	56.31
LINDEN VEY	6.00	181	96	18.92	36.67	55.60
MORGAN KLIMCHUK	6.00	185	28	28.14	27.38	55.52
ALEX HUTCHINGS	5.10	179	93	27.25	28.11	55.36
JOEY HISHON	5.10	175	17	22.25	33.00	55.24
VINCENT DUNN	5.11	186	138	24.64	29.95	54.59
ANTHONY DUCLAIR	5.11	191	80	21.61	32.62	54.22
VINCENT TROCHECK	6.00	190	64	24.12	30.01	54.13

Average Pick: 69.2

Top 10 Picks: 3

1^st Round Picks: 4/23 (17.4%)

2nd Round Picks: 6/23 (26.1%)

3rd Round Picks: 7/23 (30.4%)

4th Round Picks: 4/23 (17.4%)

5th Round Picks: 1/23 (4.3%)

Undrafted Picks: 1/23 (4.3%)

With 20 of 23 comparable forwards being taken as top 100 picks it is all but a guarantee that Noel will make my final top 100 rankings. Where he ends up is debatable as his comparables are anything from a 1st to a 4th round pick. However, the biggest cluster is in the 2nd and 3rd round, which is where I would suggest as a starting point for a skilled but undersized forward like Noel.

CONCLUSION

With 5 more players with 55+ point potential, the QMJHL continues to demonstrate that this year, it has the most offensive depth out of the three major junior leagues in Canada. Two import players, Timashov and Schweri both have the playmaking skills and offensive upside, that at minimum warrants a look when doing a top 100 list. With both players they are likely to slide further than their offensive talents should allow and could be steals in the latter rounds. Trenin and Yan both project to be worth taking in the first two rounds and are more likely to be seen as 2nd round choices in such a deep draft year. Noel is a player I suggested starting off as a 2nd or 3rd round pick, but as I mentioned before, with such a deep draft year it is more likely to be the conservative estimate of a 3rd round pick.