One way to evaluate prospects is by comparing them statistically against prior draft years. Typically, most people simply compare just points-per-game but that discounts the fact that different players score a different percentage of their points on the power play versus at even strength. I created what I call the NHL Projection formula (NHLP), which is a formula that takes a CHL player’s non-power play and power play stats in their first draft eligible year and projects what they will produce in their best NHL season. It also takes age into account, which I have found has an effect on only power play production. I have prorated the numbers over an 82 game season. In Part III, we will look at the QMJHL forwards that project to have 40-50 point potential in their best NHL season. We will than look at the players that are the most statistically comparable from past draft years. I have gone back and applied the NHLP formula to over 500+ players since the 1998 draft so there is just a couple to choose from. The criteria for comparable players is that they will have:
- NHLP within +/- 2.5 %
- Height within +/- 1 inch
- For players 6’4+, the range of height for comparables will be any players over 6’2 due to lack of comparables.
- For players 5’9 and shorter it will be any player less than 5’10.
When comparing, I have broken the players into three categories:
- Players who played 100+ NHL Games
- Players whose first draft eligible year is 2008 or previous and they have yet to play in 100 NHL games.
- Players drafted between 2009 and 2014 who have not yet reached 100 games. For these players it is too early to call which of the first two categories they will fall into in the future.
| NAME | POS | ST | HT | WT |
| ADAM MARSH | LW | L | 6.00 | 160 |
| NHLP | G | A | P | |
| 27.18 | 22.25 | 49.43 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| MICHAEL RYDER | 6.00 | 188 | 216 | 27.29 | 22.84 | 50.12 |
| BRANKO RADIVOJEVIC | 6.00 | 186 | 93 | 17.04 | 32.93 | 49.98 |
| DEVIN SETOGUCHI | 6.00 | 195 | 8 | 25.66 | 24.13 | 49.79 |
| TOM PYATT | 5.11 | 180 | 107 | 18.71 | 30.14 | 48.85 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| JAMIE TARDIF | 6.00 | 210 | 112 | 23.20 | 26.89 | 50.09 |
| BEN KNOPP | 6.01 | 190 | 69 | 25.48 | 24.48 | 49.96 |
| MIGUEL DELISLE | 6.01 | 215 | 100 | 20.94 | 28.49 | 49.42 |
| BRANDON NOLAN | 6.01 | 190 | 72 | 19.25 | 29.54 | 48.79 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| STANISLAV GALIEV | 6.01 | 188 | 86 | 14.12 | 36.11 | 50.23 |
| SCOTT KOSMACHUK | 6.00 | 189 | 70 | 24.93 | 24.46 | 49.39 |
| VACLAV KARABACEK | 6.00 | 190 | 49 | 22.70 | 26.51 | 49.21 |
| BRENDAN LEMIEUX | 6.01 | 210 | 31 | 25.87 | 23.32 | 49.18 |
| JACKSON HOUCK | 6.01 | 195 | 94 | 19.41 | 29.35 | 48.76 |
| JARROD MAIDENS | 6.01 | 179 | 82 | 25.14 | 23.60 | 48.75 |
| KEVIN SUNDHER | 6.00 | 177 | 75 | 20.79 | 27.63 | 48.42 |
| LUCAS LESSIO | 6.01 | 202 | 56 | 24.22 | 24.01 | 48.24 |
Average Pick: 82.5
Top 10 Picks: 1
1st Round Picks: 1/16 (6.3%)
2nd Round Picks: 3/16 (18.8%)
3rd Round Picks: 6/16 (37.5%)
4th Round Picks: 5/16 (31.3%)
8th Round Picks: 1/16 (6.3%)
Unless there is a skillset that jumps off the page, it is unlikely to consider a player with average size and offensive skills in your top 50. For players like Marsh, they typically are 3rd or 4th round picks (69% of comparables) which is a good starting point for him. The problem with players in Marsh’s range is that most of them do not have the offensive skills to play in the NHL as a top 6 forward and need to demonstrate traits like two-way checking skills to be a successful pick.
| NAME | POS | ST | HT | WT |
| ALEX DOSTIE | C | L | 5.09 | 159 |
| NHLP | G | A | P | |
| 20.95 | 27.64 | 48.60 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| MATT CALVERT | 5.10 | 182 | 127 | 18.80 | 30.02 | 48.82 |
| JORDIN TOOTOO | 5.09 | 182 | 98 | 21.24 | 26.57 | 47.81 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| SIMON GAMACHE | 5.10 | 185 | ND | 15.45 | 33.60 | 49.05 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| SERGEI TOLCHINSKY | 5.08 | 169 | ND | 24.34 | 23.34 | 47.68 |
Average Pick: 177.5
Top 10 Picks: 0
4th Round Picks: 1/4 (25.0%)
5th Round Picks: 1/4 (25.0%)
Undrafted Picks: 2/4 (50.0%)
With only 1 comparable forward picked in the top 100, we can rule out using a high draft pick on Dostie. A strong argument can be made that using any draft pick on a small player who lacks the upside of a top 6 forward is a poor decision. However, if you do select one, they better play much bigger than their size, like a Calvert or Tootoo.
| NAME | POS | ST | HT | WT |
| GABRIEL GAGNE | RW | 6.05 | 186 | |
| NHLP | G | A | P | |
| 28.84 | 19.39 | 48.23 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| DWIGHT KING | 6.03 | 220 | 109 | 12.72 | 34.77 | 47.49 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| RADEK SMOLENAK | 6.03 | 204 | 73 | 25.71 | 23.59 | 49.31 |
| A.J. JENKS | 6.02 | 200 | 100 | 22.25 | 26.95 | 49.19 |
| MARC-ANDRE BERNIER | 6.03 | 218 | 60 | 23.03 | 25.90 | 48.92 |
| CORY STILLMAN | 6.02 | 211 | 101 | 25.86 | 22.55 | 48.41 |
| JEREMY COLLITON | 6.02 | 195 | 58 | 20.36 | 27.61 | 47.98 |
| STEFAN MEYER | 6.02 | 198 | 55 | 32.37 | 15.55 | 47.92 |
| IGOR POHANKA | 6.03 | 199 | 44 | 15.74 | 31.29 | 47.03 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| ANDREW YOGAN | 6.03 | 200 | 100 | 22.13 | 26.97 | 49.10 |
| HENRIK SAMUELSSON | 6.03 | 208 | 27 | 14.44 | 34.29 | 48.73 |
| BRETT POLLOCK | 6.02 | 182 | 45 | 23.58 | 24.80 | 48.38 |
| IVAN TELEGIN | 6.04 | 185 | 101 | 28.80 | 19.40 | 48.19 |
| JUSTIN KIRKLAND | 6.02 | 175 | 62 | 18.12 | 29.90 | 48.02 |
| JASON DICKINSON | 6.02 | 191 | 29 | 18.17 | 28.95 | 47.12 |
| CARTER VERHAEGHE | 6.02 | 185 | 82 | 19.60 | 27.49 | 47.08 |
Average Pick: 69.7
Top 10 Picks: 0
1st Round Picks: 2/15 (13.3%)
2nd Round Picks: 5/15 (33.3%)
3rd Round Picks: 3/15 (20.0%)
4th Round Picks: 5/15 (33.3%)
Depending on the year, a player with Gagne’s 6’5 frame and goal scoring ability can go as high as a 1st round pick or as low as a 4th. One interesting result, from the comparable forwards, is that only one of them has gone on to play 100+ NHL games (King) which is a low success factor. This could just be an anomaly but one thought is that these players can use their size for scoring much more effectively in juniors than in the pros and their lack of top end offensive skills catch up to them.
| NAME | POS | ST | HT | WT |
| JEAN-CHRISTOPHE BEAUDIN | C | R | 6.01 | 181 |
| NHLP | G | A | P | |
| 12.17 | 35.99 | 48.16 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| NICK SPALING | 6.01 | 183 | 58 | 19.02 | 29.16 | 48.18 |
| MARCEL HOSSA | 6.01 | 200 | 16 | 22.22 | 25.43 | 47.65 |
| MIKE FISHER | 6.00 | 190 | 44 | 23.26 | 23.82 | 47.08 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| A.J. JENKS | 6.02 | 200 | 100 | 22.25 | 26.95 | 49.19 |
| BRANDON NOLAN | 6.01 | 190 | 72 | 19.25 | 29.54 | 48.79 |
| CORY STILLMAN | 6.02 | 211 | 101 | 25.86 | 22.55 | 48.41 |
| JEREMY COLLITON | 6.02 | 195 | 58 | 20.36 | 27.61 | 47.98 |
| STEFAN MEYER | 6.02 | 198 | 55 | 32.37 | 15.55 | 47.92 |
| RYAN STONE | 6.01 | 203 | 32 | 16.99 | 30.49 | 47.48 |
| CODEY BURKI | 6.01 | 195 | 59 | 20.64 | 26.77 | 47.41 |
| JAKUB KLEPIS | 6.01 | 200 | 16 | 11.04 | 36.08 | 47.12 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| VACLAV KARABACEK | 6.00 | 190 | 49 | 22.70 | 26.51 | 49.21 |
| BRENDAN LEMIEUX | 6.01 | 210 | 31 | 25.87 | 23.32 | 49.18 |
| JACKSON HOUCK | 6.01 | 195 | 94 | 19.41 | 29.35 | 48.76 |
| JARROD MAIDENS | 6.01 | 179 | 82 | 25.14 | 23.60 | 48.75 |
| KEVIN SUNDHER | 6.00 | 177 | 75 | 20.79 | 27.63 | 48.42 |
| BRETT POLLOCK | 6.02 | 182 | 45 | 23.58 | 24.80 | 48.38 |
| LUCAS LESSIO | 6.01 | 202 | 56 | 24.22 | 24.01 | 48.24 |
| JORDAN SZWARZ | 6.00 | 189 | 97 | 15.29 | 32.80 | 48.08 |
| MICHAEL CHAPUT | 6.01 | 188 | 89 | 23.60 | 24.48 | 48.08 |
| JUSTIN KIRKLAND | 6.02 | 175 | 62 | 18.12 | 29.90 | 48.02 |
| YAN PAVEL LAPLANTE | 6.00 | 183 | 62 | 20.55 | 27.39 | 47.94 |
| JOHN MCFARLAND | 6.01 | 205 | 33 | 20.48 | 27.22 | 47.70 |
| RAPHAEL BUSSIERES | 6.01 | 195 | 46 | 22.66 | 25.01 | 47.67 |
| NICK BAPTISTE | 6.01 | 190 | 69 | 21.12 | 26.53 | 47.66 |
| JASON DICKINSON | 6.02 | 191 | 29 | 18.17 | 28.95 | 47.12 |
| CARTER VERHAEGHE | 6.02 | 185 | 82 | 19.60 | 27.49 | 47.08 |
Average Pick: 62.6
Top 10 Picks: 0
1st Round Picks: 3/27 (11.1%)
2nd Round Picks: 12/27 (44.4%)
3rd Round Picks: 8/27 (29.6%)
4th Round Picks: 4/27 (14.8%)
Much of what I said about Marsh could be applied to Beaudin, as they fall into the group of players with average size and average offensive upside. With 3/4 of his comparable players being 2nd or 3rd round picks, this is the most obvious location for Beaudin to be picked. For players with less than 50 point potential, they are unlikely to be top 6 forward and the focus should be on what skills make them effective 3rd or 4th line players.
| NAME | POS | ST | HT | WT |
| ALEX BARRE-BOULET | C | L | 5.09 | 154 |
| NHLP | G | A | P | |
| 22.16 | 25.79 | 47.95 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| MATT CALVERT | 5.10 | 182 | 127 | 18.80 | 30.02 | 48.82 |
| JORDIN TOOTOO | 5.09 | 182 | 98 | 21.24 | 26.57 | 47.81 |
| KRIS VERSTEEG | 5.10 | 173 | 134 | 15.49 | 31.33 | 46.82 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| SIMON GAMACHE | 5.10 | 185 | ND | 15.45 | 33.60 | 49.05 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| SERGEI TOLCHINSKY | 5.08 | 169 | ND | 24.34 | 23.34 | 47.68 |
Average Pick: 168.8
Top 10 Picks: 0
4th Round Picks: 1/5 (20.0%)
5th Round Picks: 2/5 (40.0%)
Undrafted Picks: 2/5 (40.0%)
See Dostie. There are always exceptions to the rule like Versteeg but they are very few and far between.
| NAME | POS | ST | HT | WT |
| NICOLAS ROY | C | R | 6.04 | 195 |
| NHLP | G | A | P | |
| 15.76 | 29.98 | 45.74 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| KYLE CHIPCHURA | 6.03 | 208 | 18 | 13.94 | 32.78 | 46.72 |
| JOHN MITCHELL | 6.02 | 197 | 158 | 14.72 | 31.90 | 46.62 |
| JAMES NEAL | 6.03 | 205 | 33 | 18.97 | 27.64 | 46.61 |
| BRANDON SUTTER | 6.03 | 178 | 11 | 19.41 | 26.59 | 46.00 |
| NIKITA ALEXEEV | 6.05 | 194 | 8 | 22.20 | 23.56 | 45.76 |
| BRIAN SUTHERBY | 6.02 | 174 | 26 | 24.11 | 21.32 | 45.43 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| MICHAEL LAMBERT | 6.02 | 200 | 99 | 24.65 | 22.20 | 46.85 |
| SHANE ENDICOTT | 6.04 | 205 | 52 | 18.78 | 27.93 | 46.71 |
| BRUCE GRAHAM | 6.06 | 235 | 51 | 15.53 | 31.14 | 46.67 |
| PATRICK DAVIS | 6.02 | 211 | 99 | 18.77 | 27.19 | 45.96 |
| CHRIS LAWRENCE | 6.04 | 217 | 89 | 11.35 | 34.55 | 45.90 |
| ADAM BERTI | 6.03 | 192 | 68 | 15.57 | 30.25 | 45.82 |
| DANY ROUSSIN | 6.02 | 198 | 223 | 17.20 | 28.44 | 45.64 |
| ALEXANDRE BOLDUC | 6.02 | 205 | 127 | 14.08 | 31.36 | 45.44 |
| JOSH BRITTAIN | 6.05 | 225 | 71 | 24.28 | 20.96 | 45.23 |
| MATT KEITH | 6.02 | 197 | 59 | 19.93 | 25.14 | 45.07 |
| LANCE MONYCH | 6.02 | 203 | 97 | 18.39 | 26.46 | 44.85 |
| GREG WATSON | 6.02 | 198 | 34 | 19.25 | 25.44 | 44.68 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| DALTON SMITH | 6.02 | 205 | 34 | 22.68 | 24.13 | 46.81 |
| NICK MAGYAR | 6.02 | 191 | 93 | 21.08 | 25.41 | 46.49 |
| RYAN KUJAWINSKI | 6.02 | 207 | 73 | 17.35 | 28.73 | 46.08 |
| NICK MOUTREY | 6.03 | 208 | 105 | 16.63 | 28.49 | 45.12 |
| ZACH NASTASIUK | 6.02 | 202 | 48 | 21.16 | 23.80 | 44.96 |
| ADAM LOWRY | 6.05 | 201 | 67 | 18.14 | 26.62 | 44.76 |
Average Pick: 72.6
Top 10 Picks: 1
1st Round Picks: 4/24 (16.7%)
2nd Round Picks: 7/24 (29.2%)
3rd Round Picks: 5/24 (20.8%)
4th Round Picks: 5/24 (20.8%)
5th Round Picks: 1/24 (4.2%)
6th Round Picks: 1/24 (4.2%)
8th Round Picks: 1/24 (4.2%)
Roy falls within a range of players that showcase a wide spread of being anything from a 1st round choice all the way down to a 8th round choice. When we look at the successful players with over 100+ NHL games, typically you see players that were projected to be good 3rd line checking forwards with size (Chipchura, Sutherby, Sutter). In a deep draft, a 1st round pick is a stretch and a late 2nd or 3rd round choice would be better value for Roy.
| NAME | POS | ST | HT | WT |
| MATHIEU JOSEPH | RW | L | 6.01 | 166 |
| NHLP | G | A | P | |
| 22.29 | 22.50 | 44.79 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| JAY MCCLEMENT | 6.01 | 191 | 57 | 27.63 | 18.20 | 45.83 |
| ERIK CHRISTENSEN | 6.00 | 190 | 69 | 16.71 | 29.06 | 45.77 |
| PHILIPPE DUPUIS | 6.00 | 195 | 104 | 19.33 | 26.43 | 45.76 |
| BRIAN SUTHERBY | 6.02 | 174 | 26 | 24.11 | 21.32 | 45.43 |
| RYAN WHITE | 6.00 | 213 | 66 | 17.41 | 27.57 | 44.97 |
| ZACH NASTASIUK | 6.02 | 202 | 48 | 21.16 | 23.80 | 44.96 |
| MATT BELESKEY | 6.00 | 207 | 112 | 22.03 | 22.88 | 44.90 |
| COLIN FRASER | 6.01 | 175 | 69 | 16.98 | 27.62 | 44.60 |
| RYANE CLOWE | 6.02 | 190 | 175 | 27.94 | 16.51 | 44.45 |
| MATT D’AGOSTINI | 6.00 | 176 | 190 | 23.96 | 20.09 | 44.05 |
| BLAIR JONES | 6.02 | 207 | 102 | 13.61 | 30.32 | 43.93 |
| ADAM HENRIQUE | 6.00 | 196 | 82 | 19.07 | 24.85 | 43.92 |
| CASEY CIZIKAS | 6.00 | 185 | 92 | 21.33 | 22.53 | 43.86 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| TODD HORNUNG | 6.00 | 200 | 59 | 23.27 | 22.53 | 45.80 |
| DANY ROUSSIN | 6.02 | 198 | 223 | 17.20 | 28.44 | 45.64 |
| ALEXANDRE BOLDUC | 6.02 | 205 | 127 | 14.08 | 31.36 | 45.44 |
| MATT KEITH | 6.02 | 197 | 59 | 19.93 | 25.14 | 45.07 |
| LANCE MONYCH | 6.02 | 203 | 97 | 18.39 | 26.46 | 44.85 |
| HARRISON REED | 6.01 | 175 | 93 | 23.87 | 20.83 | 44.70 |
| GREG WATSON | 6.02 | 198 | 34 | 19.25 | 25.44 | 44.68 |
| SPENCER MACHACEK | 6.01 | 182 | 67 | 20.10 | 24.07 | 44.17 |
| CHRIS DURAND | 6.02 | 194 | 52 | 15.94 | 27.97 | 43.91 |
| NATHAN SMITH | 6.02 | 185 | 23 | 17.28 | 26.41 | 43.69 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| LUKAS SUTTER | 6.01 | 214 | 39 | 21.09 | 24.66 | 45.75 |
| STEVEN HODGES | 6.00 | 187 | 84 | 18.78 | 26.32 | 45.11 |
| MARTIN FRK | 6.00 | 203 | 49 | 22.30 | 22.39 | 44.69 |
| MAX REINHART | 6.01 | 185 | 64 | 18.29 | 25.68 | 43.97 |
| PHILIPPE PARADIS | 6.02 | 212 | 27 | 16.08 | 27.80 | 43.88 |
| TOMAS VINCOUR | 6.02 | 204 | 129 | 19.16 | 24.56 | 43.73 |
Average Pick: 83.4
Top 10 Picks: 0
1st Round Picks: 3/29 (10.3%)
2nd Round Picks: 8/29 (27.6%)
3rd Round Picks: 7/29 (24.1%)
4th Round Picks: 6/29 (20.7%)
5th Round Picks: 2/29 (6.9%)
6th Round Picks: 1/29 (3.4%)
7th Round Picks: 1/29 (3.4%)
8th Round Picks: 1/29 (3.4%)
Like with Marsh and Beaudin, when we hit players with a NHLP of under 50, the focus switches to finding role players for the bottom two lines. Depending on traits such as defensive play, determination, character, skating and hockey sense, a player like Joseph should project to be anywhere from a 2nd to a 4th round pick. Meanwhile, less focus should be put on offensive scoring, shot, playmaking and stickhandling as these traits are more important for players in scoring roles.
| NAME | POS | ST | HT | WT |
| KAMERON KIELLY | RW | R | 6.00 | 180 |
| NHLP | G | A | P | |
| 14.38 | 28.57 | 42.95 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| ADAM HENRIQUE | 6.00 | 196 | 82 | 19.07 | 24.85 | 43.92 |
| CASEY CIZIKAS | 6.00 | 185 | 92 | 21.33 | 22.53 | 43.86 |
| MICHAEL GRABNER | 6.01 | 177 | 14 | 32.12 | 11.52 | 43.64 |
| MATTHEW LOMBARDI | 6.00 | 190 | 215 | 17.45 | 25.04 | 42.49 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| JAMIE ARNIEL | 6.00 | 190 | 97 | 28.22 | 15.37 | 43.59 |
| CHRIS NIELSEN | 6.01 | 190 | 36 | 18.98 | 24.37 | 43.35 |
| DANIEL BOIS | 6.01 | 208 | 97 | 22.70 | 19.24 | 41.95 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| MAX REINHART | 6.01 | 185 | 64 | 18.29 | 25.68 | 43.97 |
| JOSHUA LEIVO | 6.01 | 191 | 86 | 19.17 | 24.43 | 43.60 |
| GREG CHASE | 6.00 | 188 | 188 | 15.36 | 27.92 | 43.28 |
| COLE CASSELS | 6.00 | 180 | 85 | 15.50 | 27.34 | 42.84 |
Average Pick: 96.0
Top 10 Picks: 0
1st Round Picks: 1/11 (9.1%)
2nd Round Picks: 1/11 (9.1%)
3rd Round Picks: 4/11 (36.4%)
4th Round Picks: 3/11 (27.3%)
7th Round Picks: 1/11 (9.1%)
8th Round Picks: 1/11 (9.1%)
A top 80 pick was used only 3 out of 11 times on a player comparable to Kielly making it very unlikely, in such a deep draft year, to think he would be one of the exceptions to the rule. While a late 3rd round pick is worth looking into on a player like Kielly, he has a good chance of being a 4th round or later pick.
| NAME | POS | ST | HT | WT |
| CAMERON ASKEW | C | R | 6.02 | 203 |
| NHLP | G | A | P | |
| 16.34 | 26.35 | 42.69 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| MICHAEL GRABNER | 6.01 | 177 | 14 | 32.12 | 11.52 | 43.64 |
| MARK STONE | 6.03 | 196 | 178 | 16.19 | 26.92 | 43.12 |
| MAXIM LAPIERRE | 6.02 | 205 | 61 | 20.40 | 22.07 | 42.46 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| NATHAN SMITH | 6.02 | 185 | 23 | 17.28 | 26.41 | 43.69 |
| CHRIS NIELSEN | 6.01 | 190 | 36 | 18.98 | 24.37 | 43.35 |
| PHIL MCRAE | 6.03 | 200 | 33 | 18.04 | 25.28 | 43.33 |
| ZDENEK BLATNY | 6.02 | 190 | 68 | 25.63 | 17.33 | 42.96 |
| ONDREJ FIALA | 6.02 | 195 | 40 | 24.81 | 17.95 | 42.76 |
| DANIEL BOIS | 6.01 | 208 | 97 | 22.70 | 19.24 | 41.95 |
| JOHN ARMSTRONG | 6.02 | 205 | 87 | 17.34 | 24.49 | 41.83 |
| DAN COLLINS | 6.01 | 209 | 90 | 23.21 | 18.61 | 41.82 |
| JAMES LIVINGSTON | 6.01 | 210 | 70 | 20.68 | 20.97 | 41.65 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| TOMAS VINCOUR | 6.02 | 204 | 129 | 19.16 | 24.56 | 43.73 |
| JUSTIN BAILEY | 6.03 | 202 | 52 | 19.78 | 23.93 | 43.70 |
| JOSHUA LEIVO | 6.01 | 191 | 86 | 19.17 | 24.43 | 43.60 |
| BRETT BULMER | 6.03 | 193 | 39 | 14.32 | 27.89 | 42.21 |
| COLTON SISSONS | 6.01 | 194 | 50 | 26.99 | 14.80 | 41.79 |
Average Pick: 67.8
Top 10 Picks: 0
1st Round Picks: 2/17 (11.8%)
2nd Round Picks: 6/17 (35.3%)
3rd Round Picks: 4/17 (23.5%)
4th Round Picks: 3/17 (17.6%)
5th Round Picks: 1/17 (5.9%)
6th Round Picks: 1/17 (5.9%)
With 15 of 17 comparable forwards being taken in the top 100, Askew deserves to be in the conversation to make my final rankings. Typically if a player has some size and scoring, such as Askew, they tend to be picked in the 2nd or 3rd round (59%). However, using a second round pick or earlier on players in this range is usually a poor idea; as only 3 of 12 players have gone on to play 100+ NHL games.
| NAME | POS | ST | HT | WT |
| ALEXANDRE FORTIN | C | L | 6.00 | 173 |
| NHLP | G | A | P | |
| 13.65 | 28.60 | 42.25 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| MATTHEW LOMBARDI | 6.00 | 190 | 215 | 17.45 | 25.04 | 42.49 |
| DUSTIN BOYD | 6.00 | 202 | 98 | 19.91 | 21.65 | 41.56 |
| STEPHANE VEILLEUX | 6.01 | 190 | UD | 14.36 | 26.97 | 41.33 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| DANIEL BOIS | 6.01 | 208 | 97 | 22.70 | 19.24 | 41.95 |
| KRIS NEWBURY | 5.11 | 192 | UD | 12.19 | 29.67 | 41.85 |
| DAN COLLINS | 6.01 | 209 | 90 | 23.21 | 18.61 | 41.82 |
| JAMES LIVINGSTON | 6.01 | 210 | 70 | 20.68 | 20.97 | 41.65 |
| JUSTIN MAPLETOFT | 6.01 | 185 | 130 | 22.28 | 19.10 | 41.38 |
COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)
| NAME | HT | WT | # | G | A | P |
| GREG CHASE | 6.00 | 188 | 188 | 15.36 | 27.92 | 43.28 |
| COLE CASSELS | 6.00 | 180 | 85 | 15.50 | 27.34 | 42.84 |
| COLTON SISSONS | 6.01 | 194 | 50 | 26.99 | 14.80 | 41.79 |
| KEEGAN IVERSON | 6.01 | 220 | 85 | 21.64 | 19.92 | 41.55 |
| MIKE AMADIO | 6.01 | 192 | 90 | 14.94 | 26.26 | 41.21 |
Average Pick: 137.4
Top 10 Picks: 0
2nd Round Picks: 1/13 (7.7%)
3rd Round Picks: 5/13 (38.5%)
4th Round Picks: 2/13 (15.4%)
5th Round Picks: 1/13 (7.7%)
7th Round Picks: 1/13 (7.7%)
8th Round Picks: 1/13 (7.7%)
Undrafted Picks: 2/13 (15.4%)
With 11 of 13 players taken with the 85th pick or higher, Fortin is a longshot to be in my final top 100 rankings. Outside of Lombardi, players in this range do not turn into offensive players and therefore you need to be looking for skills and traits that you find valuable in a 3rd or 4th line player to make it a worthwhile pick.
CONCLUSION
The depth of the QMJHL this year does not fall off, as there are 10 players that have a NHLP that projects to 40-50 points in a 82 game season. Of those 10 players, Dostie and Barre-Boulet are both small forwards who lack the offensive production to warrant a top 100 pick and have a good change of going undrafted. Meanwhile, Kielly and Fortin are long shots to be taken in the 1st three rounds unless they demonstrate strong traits wanted in a 3rd or 4th line forward. This leaves 6 players that I am considering for my top 100, which includes Marsh, Gagne, Beaudin, Roy, Joseph and Askew. Generally these players fall between being a 2nd round to a 4th round pick with the key factor being how well there game translates to being a depth role player in the NHL. While there are some good players in the bunch, a strong argument can be made that none of these players showcase the offensive upside to warrant a top 50 pick.
BLUE BULLET REPORT 