ANALYZING THE 2015 NHL DRAFT: WHL D-MEN

After three weeks of breaking down the forwards for the 2015 NHL entry draft, it is finally time to give the defenseman a turn. In an earlier post, I found that junior scoring in defenseman has a weak correlation with their NHL scoring. Due to this, I do not have a formula for projecting offensive ability for defenseman as I do with forwards. Instead, the most useful information gleamed from my sample of defenseman is that their even strength production is roughly twice as important as their power play scoring. Therefore, for evaluating d-men, I have decided to take the sample and use the ratio of the average point per game in juniors versus that in the NHL. By doing this, it will help adjust for the power play specialists and put more emphasis on the more important skill of creating offense at even strength. The rates I will be using to adjust each CHL d-men are:

	Non-PP Points	PP Points
NHL Pts/Game	0.2684	0.1552
CHL Pts/Game	0.2675	0.2667
	100.34%	58.19%

In another post, I used these ratios to see if I could find what makes a good top 100 pick. I discovered that it is best to divide defenseman between those who are average height or taller for a defenseman (6’2+) and those who are below average height (<6’2). I also discovered some rules of thumb which are:

• If a defenseman is less than 6’2”, they should project to be a 30+ point player over an 82 game season to warrant a top 100 selection.
• If a defenseman is 6’2” or taller, they should project to be a 12+ point player over an 82 game season to warrant a top 100 selection.
  

For those 6’2+ defensemen that project to be between a 12-30 point player, size definitely matters. The average height and weight, of the 38 d-men that fall within this range and go on to have 100+ NHL game careers, is 6’4 and 210 lbs. Of those 38 players, only 5 (13%) of them were less than 200 lbs (Ellerby, Fischer, Postma, Parent and Mikkelson). Postma went 205^th and was a longshot to make 100 games which he just did this year. Parent and Mikkelson both could skate, but neither played with a physical edge and lacked offensive upside (17 points in 237 games combined). Meanwhile, Fischer and Ellerby are both tall and lanky d-men who were considered raw projects with a physical edge (87 points in 517 games combined). Therefore, if a defenseman is less than 200 lbs and lacks offensive upside, the best bet is to take a tall, lanky raw physical d-man and hope for the best. The new rules of thumb for 6’2 or taller d-men are:

• If they project to be a 30+ point player over an 82 game season they warrant consideration as a top 100 pick
• If they are at least 200 lbs and project in the 12-30 point range, they warrant consideration as a top 100 pick.
• If they are under 200 lbs and project in the 12-30 point range, they warrant consideration as a top 100 pick if they are tall (6’4+) and have a physical edge.

With defenseman it is tough to find comparable players using offensive totals, as there is so much more to their game than just being able to produce numbers. However, by looking at other players, that were of similar height and offensive scoring, we may be able to see a trend as to where they may be drafted and gain insights into what skills made a player either successful or not. The d-men 6’1 and under will be compared against others d-men that are 6’1 and under. The d-men 6’2 and over will be compared against d-men that are also 6’2 and over. I have picked the 7 players above and the 7 players below them from my list of comparables. When viewing the list of comparable player, the WHL defenseman from the 2015 draft is in bold in the centre of the list.

THE TOP WHL D-MEN

Based on height and adjusted scoring production, the following 10 players satisfied my rules of thumb of what makes a good top 100 pick for a d-men.

JONATHAN GIRARD	6.00	200	1998	48	18.74	53.56	72.30
IAN WHITE	5.10	190	2002	191	25.16	39.11	64.27
DMITRI KULIKOV	6.01	195	2009	14	11.52	51.62	63.13
MARC-ANDRE BOURDON	6.00	215	2008	67	10.18	51.83	62.01
TREVOR DALEY	5.11	204	2002	43	14.47	47.35	61.81
MATHIEU CARLE	6.00	210	2006	53	15.32	46.39	61.71
DAN HAMHUIS	6.00	175	2001	12	15.10	46.07	61.17
IVAN PROVOROV	6.01	201	2015	N/A	13.77	45.80	59.57
MORGAN RIELLY	6.00	210	2012	5	10.73	47.86	58.59
STEVE MCCARTHY	6.00	200	1999	23	18.78	39.20	57.98
MATHEW DUMBA	6.00	182	2012	7	19.34	38.61	57.95
JULIUS HONKA	5.11	175	2014	14	17.21	40.27	57.47
MICHAEL DEL ZOTTO	6.00	188	2008	20	15.25	41.20	56.45
CALVIN DE HAAN	6.01	189	2009	12	8.15	48.25	56.41
JOE MORROW	6.01	206	2011	23	11.40	44.18	55.58

Typically a player of Provorov’s size and scoring will go in the first two rounds of the draft (12/14). He is likely to join Kulikov, Hamhuis, Rielly, Dumba, Honka and De Haan as a top 15 pick. While Provorov is on many top 10 rankings, history suggests there is no guarantee he will be as only Rielly and Dumba did that in a weak 2012 draft year.

DOUGIE HAMILTON	6.05	205	2011	9	11.13	48.25	59.38
BOB SANGUINETTI	6.02	183	2006	21	14.54	44.28	58.82
BRAD STUART	6.02	216	1998	3	17.82	39.11	56.92
CAM FOWLER	6.02	199	2010	12	8.49	47.21	55.70
AARON EKBLAD	6.04	217	2014	1	21.93	32.98	54.92
CAM BARKER	6.03	210	2004	3	17.14	36.57	53.71
STEVE EMINGER	6.02	200	2002	12	17.91	34.36	52.27
RYAN PILON	6.02	206	2015	N/A	9.76	40.44	50.20
BRANDON GORMLEY	6.02	190	2010	13	8.72	41.32	50.04
OLLI MAATA	6.02	198	2012	22	10.86	37.59	48.45
DUSTIN BYFUGLIEN	6.03	264	2003	245	13.14	34.66	47.80
DILLON FOURNIER	6.02	187	2012	48	11.58	35.25	46.83
NATHAN BEAULIEU	6.03	190	2011	17	11.56	34.77	46.33
SLATER KOEKKOEK	6.02	188	2012	10	14.49	31.83	46.33
DOUG LYNCH	6.03	200	2001	43	10.01	35.49	45.51

For Pilon, 11 of the comparable players were first round choices with only Fournier, Lynch and Byfuglien being taken outside of it. In most years if you were 6’2 and put up the numbers Pilon did you would be a slam-dunk as a top 30 pick. While this year may not be one of those years, Pilon at least deserves a look in your top 30.

KRIS RUSSELL	5.10	177	2005	67	20.09	28.96	49.04
TYSON BARRIE	5.10	191	2009	64	9.25	39.00	48.25
RYAN PULOCK	6.01	218	2013	15	14.92	33.31	48.23
P.K. SUBBAN	6.00	202	2007	43	13.16	34.42	47.58
XAVIER OUELLET	6.01	177	2011	48	7.65	39.66	47.31
YANNICK WEBER	5.10	195	2007	73	13.88	33.38	47.25
ROLAND MCKEOWN	6.01	195	2014	50	12.31	34.22	46.53
NOAH JUULSEN	6.01	174	2015	N/A	8.61	37.71	46.32
RYAN MURRAY	6.01	195	2012	2	18.36	27.74	46.11
JORDAN SUBBAN	5.09	185	2013	115	14.02	32.06	46.07
DENNIS WIDEMAN	6.00	202	2001	UD	17.09	28.64	45.74
TIM GLEASON	6.01	205	2001	23	10.14	35.44	45.57
MATT FINN	6.01	204	2012	35	9.70	35.71	45.41
CARLO COLAIACOVO	6.01	194	2001	17	13.23	31.81	45.03
STEPHAN SILAS	6.01	206	2010	95	3.94	40.39	44.33

With 11 of the 14 comparables being top 75 picks, it appears Juulsen is worth taking in that range. Of those 11 players, the ones who went in the third round were all 5’10 and with Juulsen being 6’1”, it is likely he goes before them. If that turns out to be the case than Juulsen will be hearing his name sometime in the first two rounds of the draft.

BARRET JACKMAN	6.01	195	1999	17	7.43	32.93	40.36
FRANCOIS BEAUCHEMIN	5.11	198	1998	75	10.43	29.93	40.35
LUKAS KRAJICEK	6.01	185	2001	24	8.66	31.60	40.27
JONATHON BLUM	6.01	170	2007	23	7.42	32.59	40.02
THOMAS HICKEY	5.11	182	2007	4	9.45	30.10	39.55
MIKE GREEN	6.01	200	2004	29	13.67	25.49	39.16
MATT MACKENZIE	6.01	195	2010	83	7.77	30.89	38.66
PARKER WOTHERSPOON	6.00	171	2015	N/A	8.38	29.99	38.37
MARK KATIC	5.11	185	2007	62	5.42	32.86	38.28
NICK SCHULTZ	6.00	184	2000	33	8.50	28.23	36.73
RYAN BUTTON	6.01	190	2009	86	5.88	30.70	36.58
STUART PERCY	6.01	196	2011	25	4.64	31.77	36.42
MARK BARBERIO	6.01	185	2008	152	8.98	28.11	36.31
BRENDAN BELL	6.01	207	2001	65	6.30	29.99	36.29
BEN SHUTRON	6.00	195	2006	95	7.96	28.31	36.27

Seven of the comparable players were taken in the top 33; meanwhile six players were taken between 62 and 95. It seems players that are comparable to Wotherspoon are either taken early in the draft or passed on until the third round. In Wotherspoon’s case, it is more likely to be the latter than a 1^st round pick.

FRANCOIS BEAUCHEMIN	5.11	198	1998	75	10.43	29.93	40.35
LUKAS KRAJICEK	6.01	185	2001	24	8.66	31.60	40.27
JONATHON BLUM	6.01	170	2007	23	7.42	32.59	40.02
THOMAS HICKEY	5.11	182	2007	4	9.45	30.10	39.55
MIKE GREEN	6.01	200	2004	29	13.67	25.49	39.16
MATT MCKENZIE	6.01	195	2010	83	7.77	30.89	38.66
MARK KATIC	5.11	185	2007	62	5.42	32.86	38.28
DUSTIN PERILLAT	5.11	180	2015	N/A	10.46	26.48	36.95
NICK SCHULTZ	6.00	184	2000	33	8.50	28.23	36.73
RYAN BUTTON	6.01	190	2009	86	5.88	30.70	36.58
STUART PERCY	6.01	196	2011	25	4.64	31.77	36.42
MARK BARBERIO	6.01	185	2008	152	8.98	28.11	36.31
BRENDAN BELL	6.01	207	2001	65	6.30	29.99	36.29
BEN SHUTRON	6.00	195	2006	95	7.96	28.31	36.27
ROSS LUPASCHUCK	6.01	212	1999	34	10.48	24.76	35.25

With 13 of 14 comparable players taken in the top 100, Perillat should be in the running as a top 100 pick but you never hear his name mentioned. When looking at the comparable players, Hickey and Katic are in the same range, in terms of size and scoring, but were both much more hyped prospects. There may be a diamond in the rough with Perillat or he is being overlooked for a reason, which is what we need the draft guides to help with.

MARK BARBERIO	6.01	185	2008	152	8.98	28.11	36.31
BRENDAN BELL	6.01	207	2001	65	6.30	29.99	36.29
BEN SHUTRON	6.00	195	2006	95	7.96	28.31	36.27
ROSS LUPASCHUCK	6.01	212	1999	34	10.48	24.76	35.25
JAMES WISNIEWSKI	5.11	200	2002	156	10.96	24.03	34.99
ZBYNEK MICHALEK	6.01	176	2001	UD	9.03	25.94	34.97
ADAM JANOSIK	5.11	178	2010	72	12.47	21.14	33.61
ETHAN BEAR	5.11	200	2015	N/A	12.13	21.33	33.46
KYLE CUMISKEY	5.11	172	2005	222	2.35	29.76	32.10
AGRIS SAVIELS	6.01	205	2000	63	8.33	23.67	32.00
JARED SPURGEON	5.09	185	2008	156	3.61	28.47	31.89
T.J. BRODIE	6.01	173	2008	114	9.05	23.23	31.89
JOSH GORGES	6.00	180	2002	UD	5.98	25.67	31.64
MARC EDOUARD VLASIC	6.01	194	2005	35	5.69	25.89	31.58
BLAKE SIEBENALER	6.01	190	2014	77	6.30	25.01	31.31

With only half of his comparable being top 100 picks, Bear is on the bubble in terms of being worth a top 100 pick. While there are a couple good players under 6’ (Wisniewski and Cumiskey), typically a top 100 pick is not used on a player of Bear’s size and scoring.

JEREMIE BLAIN	6.02	189	2010	91	4.65	30.41	35.06
BRAYDEN MCNABB	6.04	218	2009	66	9.64	25.22	34.86
DUSTIN KOHN	6.02	195	2005	46	6.68	27.83	34.52
LUCA SBISA	6.02	205	2008	19	6.58	28.35	34.42
TYLER CUMA	6.02	192	2008	23	5.82	28.76	34.27
ERIC GELINAS	6.03	189	2009	54	8.18	25.52	33.70
CHAD DENNY	6.03	227	2005	49	10.09	23.58	33.67
BRENDAN GUHLE	6.02	184	2015	N/A	4.75	28.45	33.21
RYAN SPROUL	6.04	200	2011	55	14.35	18.83	33.18
JEFF WOYWITKA	6.02	200	2001	27	7.14	26.00	33.14
BRANDON ARCHIBALD	6.04	218	2010	94	5.34	27.48	32.82
CHRIS BIGRAS	6.02	194	2013	32	6.07	26.00	32.07
LUKE SCHENN	6.02	211	2008	5	10.49	21.78	32.03
JEFF SCHULTZ	6.06	210	2004	27	10.75	21.22	31.97
BEN THOMAS	6.02	193	2014	119	8.00	23.94	31.94

Guhle has a range of comparable players that are anywhere from a top five pick to a late fourth round pick. Since Guhle is not a player that you see in the top 30 rankings, he is more likely to go in the range of the second tier of players that were picked between 46^th and 94^th.

TY WISHART	6.05	203	2006	16	4.10	24.97	29.07
ALLAN ROURKE	6.02	195	1998	154	6.58	22.31	28.89
JOEY LEACH	6.04	200	2010	73	4.33	24.44	28.78
PETER REYNOLDS	6.03	188	1999	60	3.59	24.72	28.31
DAVID MUSIL	6.04	203	2011	31	6.96	21.27	28.22
DYLAN MCILRATH	6.05	215	2010	10	8.00	20.09	28.09
KYLE WHARTON	6.02	189	2004	59	9.18	18.63	27.81
ANDREW NIELSEN	6.03	207	2015	N/A	7.42	20.19	27.61
BRYAN ALLEN	6.04	217	1998	4	7.36	20.12	27.48
DREW SCHIESTEL	6.02	193	2007	59	5.01	22.39	27.39
JARED COWEN	6.05	220	2009	9	9.84	17.52	27.36
MIKE SAUER	6.03	205	2005	40	4.06	22.88	26.95
LUC BOURDON	6.03	215	2005	10	11.33	15.42	26.75
ALEXANDRE PICARD	6.02	222	2003	85	3.21	23.52	26.72
BRANISLAV MEZEI	6.03	210	1999	10	4.39	22.32	26.71

Five top 10 picks are comparable players with Nielsen, which would make you think it would be a wise choice to consider a high pick on him. The other thought would be that this highlights how teams have overvalued big shutdown defenseman throughout the years. I fall on the latter side of the spectrum and do not believe high picks should be used on defensive d-men unless they are a special case, like Cowen.

BRANISLAV MEZEI	6.03	210	1999	10	4.39	22.32	26.71
MARC STAAL	6.04	205	2005	12	4.62	22.05	26.67
BRETT CARSON	6.05	210	2004	109	4.83	21.83	26.67
MAT CLARK	6.04	218	2009	37	2.94	23.66	26.60
MICHAEL STONE	6.04	207	2008	69	8.52	18.81	26.53
JORDAN SMITH	6.02	203	2004	39	5.74	20.13	25.87
ANDREW PEDAN	6.04	211	2011	63	2.28	23.56	25.84
BRANDON CARLO	6.05	196	2015	N/A	4.40	21.34	25.74
NIKITA ZADOROV	6.05	235	2013	16	7.10	18.64	25.73
KURTIS FOSTER	6.04	200	2000	40	7.42	18.28	25.70
COLTEN TEUBERT	6.04	201	2008	13	8.18	17.65	25.63
BROCK BEUKEBOOM	6.02	215	2010	63	7.05	18.17	25.22
COLBY ROBAK	6.04	207	2008	46	4.17	20.77	24.49
MIKE WEBER	6.02	205	2006	57	4.56	19.81	24.38
MIKE FUNK	6.04	208	2004	43	2.79	21.33	24.12

Carlo is a name that has started to appear on many top 30 rankings meaning he may join Mezei, Staal, Zadorov and Teubert as a 1^st round choice. While Staal has been a very good d-man for years and Zadorov is on his way, the comparable players in his range do not scream use a first round pick but Carlo could be an exception to the rule.

THEO PECKHAM	6.02	223	2006	75	6.94	13.16	20.10
BRETT PONICH	6.07	229	2009	48	1.14	18.95	20.09
ALEX LINTUNIEMI	6.03	214	2014	60	4.33	15.49	19.82
JIRI FISCHER	6.05	190	1998	25	2.78	16.96	19.75
SHEA WEBER	6.03	208	2003	49	2.77	16.94	19.71
DAN JANCEVSKI	6.03	211	1999	66	2.65	16.81	19.46
MIKE EGENER	6.03	200	2003	34	4.94	14.50	19.44
CHAZ REDDEKOPP	6.03	219	2015	N/A	4.17	15.11	19.28
KYLE QUINCEY	6.02	210	2003	132	6.66	12.57	19.23
MARC METHOT	6.03	228	2003	168	3.59	15.37	18.96
PAUL POSTMA	6.03	184	2007	205	4.05	14.83	18.88
STEPHEN PEAT	6.03	210	1998	32	6.24	12.49	18.73
RYAN PARENT	6.02	185	2005	18	2.35	16.22	18.57
ROBYN REGHER	6.04	215	1998	19	4.70	13.80	18.50
CLAYTON BARTHEL	6.03	200	2004	88	3.43	15.04	18.47

Reddekopp is the only player to project to less than 20 points but from looking at his comparable there can be some very good players found in this range (Fischer, Quincey, Methot and Regher) and even one superstar (Weber). While I am not suggesting a team uses a 1^st round pick, Reddekopp at least deserves consideration for the top 100 as only 3 of the 14 comparables fell outside this range.

CONCLUSION

While 10 players make my rules of thumb for what constitutes a good selection, it is unlikely all 10 will be picked. What we can gleam from the stats and height for one is that Provorov is worth using a 1st round pick but a top 10 choice is questionable. Meanwhile, Pilon and Juulsen are both players worth consideration for the first two rounds. Wotherspoon is a notch below those three players and is more likely in the 2nd or 3rd round range. As for skilled d-men under 6′ tall there is Bear and Perillat, but neither are sure-fire top 100 picks and could be later round steals. Guhle and Nielsen both have comparables players that suggest they could be taken in the 1st round, however, I feel they both fall more in the 2nd or 3rd round category of the draft. Carlo who is getting a lot of buzz as a 1st round choice does not have many comparable players to warrant such a high pick and may be overvalued due to his height. The last player to round out the list is Reddekopp who has the size and enough offensive scoring to warrant being at least a bubble player as a top 100 pick. In the end, I would suggest there are seven players likely to be top 100 selections (Provorov, Pilon, Juulsen, Carlo, Nielsen, Guhle, Wotherspoon) and there are 3 bubble players (Bear, Perillat, Reddekopp) whose fates will be more determined based on the draft guides.