ANALYZING THE 2015 NHL DRAFT: OHL D-MEN

In trying to determine whether or not I should invest time in a defenseman, I have come up with a system which I previously applied to the 2015 WHL draft crop. For my system for evaluating d-men, I took every d-man drafted between 1998 and 2006 that had 250 NHL games played (at the start of the 2014-2015 season) and used the ratio of their average point per game in juniors versus that in the NHL (broken down between non-pp points and pp points). By doing this, it helps adjust for the power play specialists and put more emphasis on the more important skill of creating offense at even strength. The rates I will be using to adjust each CHL d-men are:

	Non-PP Points	PP Points
NHL Pts/Game	0.2684	0.1552
CHL Pts/Game	0.2675	0.2667
	100.34%	58.19%

In another post, I used these ratios to see if I could find what makes a good top 100 pick. I discovered that it is best to divide defenseman between those who are average height or taller for a defenseman (6’2+) and those who are below average height (<6’2). I also discovered some rules of thumb which are:

• If a defenseman is less than 6’2”, they should project to be a 30+ point player over an 82 game season to warrant a top 100 selection.
• If they are 6’2 or over, they should project to be a 12+ point player over an 82 game season to warrant consideration as a top 100 pick. For those players that fall within the 12-30 point range, there is further criteria to be worth using a top 100 pick which is:
  • They are at least 200 lbs and if not, they should be tall (6’4+) and in most cases, play with a physical edge.

With defenseman it is tough to find comparable players using offensive totals, as there is so much more to their game than just being able to produce numbers. However, by looking at other players, that were of similar height and offensive scoring, we may be able to see a trend as to where they may be drafted and gain insights into what skills made a player either successful or not. The d-men 6’1 and under will be compared against others d-men that are 6’1 and under. The d-men 6’2 and over will be compared against d-men that are also 6’2 and over. I have picked the 7 players above and the 7 players below them from my list of comparables. When viewing the list of comparable player, the OHL defenseman from the 2015 draft is in bold in the centre of the list.

THE TOP OHL D-MEN

RYAN ELLIS	5.10	179	2009	11	24.87	74.62	99.50
ANTHONY DEANGELO	5.11	167	2014	19	20.13	70.01	90.15
RYAN MURPHY	5.11	179	2011	12	25.01	54.61	79.62
JONATHAN GIRARD	6.00	200	1998	48	18.74	53.56	72.30
IAN WHITE	5.10	190	2002	191	25.16	39.11	64.27
DMITRI KULIKOV	6.01	195	2009	14	11.52	51.62	63.13
MITCHELL VANDE SOMPEL	5.10	182	2015	N/A	13.77	48.49	62.26
MARC-ANDRE BOURDON	6.00	215	2008	67	10.18	51.83	62.01
TREVOR DALEY	5.11	204	2002	43	14.47	47.35	61.81
MATHIEU CARLE	6.00	210	2006	53	15.32	46.39	61.71
DAN HAMHUIS	6.00	175	2001	12	15.10	46.07	61.17
MORGAN RIELLY	6.00	210	2012	5	10.73	47.86	58.59
STEVE MCCARTHY	6.00	200	1999	23	18.78	39.20	57.98
MATHEW DUMBA	6.00	182	2012	7	19.34	38.61	57.95
JULIUS HONKA	5.11	175	2014	14	17.21	40.27	57.47

This is the top 15 d-men since 1998 that are 6’1 and under with Vande Sompel sitting in the 7^th spot. For players under 6’, there are 3 comparables in White, Daley and Honka that put up numbers similar to Vande Sompel. With a 1^st round pick used on Honka last year, Vande Sompel deserves at least a look as a late 1^st round choice.

 

TREVOR DALEY	5.11	204	2002	43	14.47	47.35	61.81
MATHIEU CARLE	6.00	210	2006	53	15.32	46.39	61.71
DAN HAMHUIS	6.00	175	2001	12	15.10	46.07	61.17
MORGAN RIELLY	6.00	210	2012	5	10.73	47.86	58.59
STEVE MCCARTHY	6.00	200	1999	23	18.78	39.20	57.98
MATHEW DUMBA	6.00	182	2012	7	19.34	38.61	57.95
JULIUS HONKA	5.11	175	2014	14	17.21	40.27	57.47
VINCE DUNN	6.00	187	2015	N/A	20.98	36.37	57.35
MICHAEL DEL ZOTTO	6.00	188	2008	20	15.25	41.20	56.45
CALVIN DE HAAN	6.01	189	2009	12	8.15	48.25	56.41
JOE MORROW	6.01	206	2011	23	11.40	44.18	55.58
IVAN VISHNEVSKIY	6.00	178	2006	27	14.47	40.24	54.72
DALTON THROWER	6.00	197	2012	51	16.71	37.56	54.28
NATHAN PAETSCH	6.00	205	2001	58	7.20	44.05	51.25
COLE JARRETT	6.00	200	2001	141	14.81	36.43	51.24

With 13 of the 14 comparable d-men being taken in the first two rounds, Dunn is a likely choice to also join that group in being a top 60 pick. In many years a defenseman with Dunn’s offensive numbers would be a 1st round pick but with the depth of the draft, he and many other quality d-men will be available in the 2nd round.

 

MATHEW DUMBA	6.00	182	2012	7	19.34	38.61	57.95
JULIUS HONKA	5.11	175	2014	14	17.21	40.27	57.47
MICHAEL DEL ZOTTO	6.00	188	2008	20	15.25	41.20	56.45
CALVIN DE HAAN	6.01	189	2009	12	8.15	48.25	56.41
JOE MORROW	6.01	206	2011	23	11.40	44.18	55.58
IVAN VISHNEVSKIY	6.00	178	2006	27	14.47	40.24	54.72
DALTON THROWER	6.00	197	2012	51	16.71	37.56	54.28
RASMUS ANDERSSON	6.00	212	2015	N/A	11.35	42.72	54.06
NATHAN PAETSCH	6.00	205	2001	58	7.20	44.05	51.25
COLE JARRETT	6.00	200	2001	141	14.81	36.43	51.24
DREW DOUGHTY	6.00	213	2008	2	14.28	36.27	50.55
AARON JOHNSON	6.01	195	2001	85	10.75	39.69	50.44
DERRICK POULIOT	6.00	203	2012	8	9.68	40.66	50.34
STEFAN ELLIOTT	6.01	192	2009	49	13.94	35.88	49.83
FILIP NOVAK	6.01	180	2000	64	10.91	38.85	49.76

With only 3 comparable d-men falling outside of the top 60, Andersson is another OHL d-man that deserves a good look in the first two rounds. One big factor that can move a player from being a 1^st round choice to a 2^nd or later is their foot speed and mobility, which is the area of concern for Andersson.

 

MICHAEL DEL ZOTTO	6.00	188	2008	20	15.25	41.20	56.45
CALVIN DE HAAN	6.01	189	2009	12	8.15	48.25	56.41
JOE MORROW	6.01	206	2011	23	11.40	44.18	55.58
IVAN VISHNEVSKIY	6.00	178	2006	27	14.47	40.24	54.72
DALTON THROWER	6.00	197	2012	51	16.71	37.56	54.28
NATHAN PAETSCH	6.00	205	2001	58	7.20	44.05	51.25
COLE JARRETT	6.00	200	2001	141	14.81	36.43	51.24
TRAVIS DERMOTT	5.11	197	2015	N/A	11.07	39.53	50.60
DREW DOUGHTY	6.00	213	2008	2	14.28	36.27	50.55
AARON JOHNSON	6.01	195	2001	85	10.75	39.69	50.44
DERRICK POULIOT	6.00	203	2012	8	9.68	40.66	50.34
STEFAN ELLIOTT	6.01	192	2009	49	13.94	35.88	49.83
FILIP NOVAK	6.01	180	2000	64	10.91	38.85	49.76
KRIS RUSSELL	5.10	177	2005	67	20.09	28.96	49.04
TYSON BARRIE	5.10	191	2009	64	9.25	39.00	48.25

When we compare Dunn, Andersson and Dermott with their number of 1^st round comparable d-men, the numbers drop from 9 with Dunn to 8 with Andersson to 6 with Dermott. There does seem to be a slight trend that the better the stats, the better a pick. With Dermott, the range of the majority of the comparable players is between a top 10 pick to an early 3^rd round choice so don’t expect consistency in the draft guides.

 

NATHAN BEAULIEU	6.03	190	2011	17	11.56	34.77	46.33
SLATER KOEKKOEK	6.02	188	2012	10	14.49	31.83	46.33
DOUG LYNCH	6.03	200	2001	43	10.01	35.49	45.51
GEOFFREY SCHEMITSCH	6.02	189	2010	96	4.19	41.08	45.28
MARTIN SKOULA	6.02	195	1998	17	8.84	36.41	45.25
DAVID SAVARD	6.02	212	2009	94	11.67	32.89	44.55
DARNELL NURSE	6.04	205	2013	7	13.52	30.91	44.43
THOMAS SCHEMITSCH	6.04	206	2015	N/A	13.41	30.81	44.23
JEROME LEDUC	6.02	194	2010	68	18.10	25.99	44.10
KARL ALZNER	6.02	209	2007	5	6.16	37.72	43.88
DAMON SEVERSON	6.02	210	2012	60	11.19	32.50	43.69
ROSTISLAV KLESLA	6.02	200	2000	4	15.37	28.13	43.50
SHEA THEODORE	6.02	186	2013	26	16.05	27.28	43.33
HAYDN FLEURY	6.03	198	2014	7	7.32	35.76	43.08
ERIK GUDBRANSON	6.04	217	2010	3	4.42	37.98	42.41

Schemitsch is the type of player that you fall in love with if you are a numbers guy, as he is big and can put up points. It seems players with his size and scoring are either taken as 1^st round picks or they have warts to their game and drop to a mid-2^nd round to early 4^th round choice. One red flag is his brother Geoffrey went unsigned by Tampa Bay and is now playing University hockey.

 

STEPHEN SILAS	6.01	206	2010	95	3.94	40.39	44.33
RAYMOND MACIAS	6.01	202	2005	124	13.42	29.85	43.27
MICKI DUPONT	5.09	188	1998	ND	10.61	31.90	42.51
BRUNO GERVAIS	6.01	195	2003	182	16.45	26.05	42.51
JOSH MORRISSEY	6.00	190	2013	13	14.34	27.82	42.16
T.J. BRENNAN	6.00	205	2007	31	16.07	25.39	41.46
CHARLES-OLIVIER ROUSSEL	6.01	202	2009	42	10.13	31.26	41.40
GUSTAV BOURAMMAN	5.11	184	2015	N/A	4.56	36.77	41.33
DYSIN MAYO	6.01	191	2014	133	9.38	31.77	41.16
MARK POPOVIC	6.01		2001	35	9.10	32.03	41.14
BARRET JACKMAN	6.01	195	1999	17	7.43	32.93	40.36
FRANCOIS BEAUCHEMIN	5.11	198	1998	75	10.43	29.93	40.35
LUKAS KRAJICEK	6.01	185	2001	24	8.66	31.60	40.27
JONATHON BLUM	6.01	170	2007	23	7.42	32.59	40.02
THOMAS HICKEY	5.11	182	2007	4	9.45	30.10	39.55

Comparable players for Bouramman is all over the map, with five comparable players being taken in the 1^st round and 4four being taken in the 5^th round or later. Likely the correct value for Bouramman ranges somewhere between the two extremes, which means between a 2^nd to 4^th round selection.

 

FRANCOIS BEAUCHEMIN	5.11	198	1998	75	10.43	29.93	40.35
LUKAS KRAJICEK	6.01	185	2001	24	8.66	31.60	40.27
JONATHON BLUM	6.01	170	2007	23	7.42	32.59	40.02
THOMAS HICKEY	5.11	182	2007	4	9.45	30.10	39.55
MIKE GREEN	6.01	200	2004	29	13.67	25.49	39.16
MATT MACKENZIE	6.01	195	2010	83	7.77	30.89	38.66
MARK KATIC	5.11	185	2007	62	5.42	32.86	38.28
KYLE CAPOBIANCO	6.01	178	2015	N/A	10.07	27.15	37.22
NICK SCHULTZ	6.00	184	2000	33	8.50	28.23	36.73
RYAN BUTTON	6.01	190	2009	86	5.88	30.70	36.58
STUART PERCY	6.01	196	2011	25	4.64	31.77	36.42
MARK BARBERIO	6.01	185	2008	152	8.98	28.11	36.31
BRENDAN BELL	6.01	207	2001	65	6.30	29.99	36.29
BEN SHUTRON	6.00	195	2006	95	7.96	28.31	36.27
ROSS LUPASCHUCK	6.01	212	1999	34	10.48	24.76	35.25

While not good enough to be a top offensive defenseman and not big enough to be a shutdown d-man, Capobianco could struggle to figure out what type of d-man he will become. How likely Capobianco is able to adapt and figure out a role will depend much on what skills he brings, such as hockey sense, mobility, skating, positioning and ability to make a first pass.

 

KYLE WOOD	6.05	217	2014	84	4.73	25.04	29.77
RYAN VAN BUSKIRK	6.02	205	1998	100	9.65	20.02	29.67
ED HILL	6.02	215	1999	61	7.27	21.92	29.19
TY WISHART	6.05	203	2006	16	4.10	24.97	29.07
ALLAN ROURKE	6.02	195	1998	154	6.58	22.31	28.89
JOEY LEACH	6.04	200	2010	73	4.33	24.44	28.78
PETER REYNOLDS	6.03	188	1999	60	3.59	24.72	28.31
MATT SPENCER	6.02	203	2015	N/A	7.04	21.19	28.22
DAVID MUSIL	6.04	203	2011	31	6.96	21.27	28.22
DYLAN MCILRATH	6.05	215	2010	10	8.00	20.09	28.09
KYLE WHARTON	6.02	189	2004	59	9.18	18.63	27.81
BRYAN ALLEN	6.04	217	1998	4	7.36	20.12	27.48
DREW SCHIESTEL	6.02	193	2007	59	5.01	22.39	27.39
JARED COWEN	6.05	220	2009	9	9.84	17.52	27.36
MIKE SAUER	6.03	205	2005	40	4.06	22.88	26.95

Spencer was a much hyped prospect that did not have the year that was expected of him. If you are still bullish on Spencer, an argument could be made that his numbers are low and these are not his comparable players. When we look at his comparables, the majority of them (8/14) are taken in the 59th spot or higher suggesting Spencer should be a 3rd round choice.

 

LUC BOURDON	6.03	215	2005	10	11.33	15.42	26.75
ALEXANDRE PICARD	6.02	222	2003	85	3.21	23.52	26.72
BRANISLAV MEZEI	6.03	210	1999	10	4.39	22.32	26.71
MARC STAAL	6.04	205	2005	12	4.62	22.05	26.67
BRETT CARSON	6.05	210	2004	109	4.83	21.83	26.67
MAT CLARK	6.04	218	2009	37	2.94	23.66	26.60
MICHAEL STONE	6.04	207	2008	69	8.52	18.81	26.53
JUSTIN LEMCKE	6.02	200	2015	N/A	10.38	15.92	26.30
JORDAN SMITH	6.02	203	2004	39	5.74	20.13	25.87
ANDREY PEDAN	6.04	211	2011	63	2.28	23.56	25.84
NIKITA ZADOROV	6.05	235	2013	16	7.10	18.64	25.73
KURTIS FOSTER	6.04	200	2000	40	7.42	18.28	25.70
COLTEN TEUBERT	6.04	201	2008	13	8.18	17.65	25.63
BROCK BEUKEBOOM	6.02	215	2010	63	7.05	18.17	25.22
COLBY ROBAK	6.04	207	2008	46	4.17	20.77	24.49

Lemcke just barely made my rules of thumb as both his height and weight are at my minimum threshold of 6’2 and 200 lbs. With only 1 of the 14 comparable d-men not selected in the top 100, Lemcke should be getting some more consideration but he is having a tough time getting much love in such a deep draft year.

 

KURTIS FOSTER	6.04	200	2000	40	7.42	18.28	25.70
COLTEN TEUBERT	6.04	201	2008	13	8.18	17.65	25.63
BROCK BEUKEBOOM	6.02	215	2010	63	7.05	18.17	25.22
COLBY ROBAK	6.04	207	2008	46	4.17	20.77	24.49
MIKE WEBER	6.02	205	2006	57	4.56	19.81	24.38
MIKE FUNK	6.04	208	2004	43	2.79	21.33	24.12
PAUL BISSONNETTE	6.02	216	2003	121	8.08	16.04	24.12
MEDRIC MERCIER	6.04	202	2015	N/A	6.58	17.41	23.99
JAY HARRISON	6.04	211	2001	82	6.08	17.89	23.97
JONATHAN DIABY	6.05	240	2013	64	3.42	19.90	23.32
JESSE BLACKER	6.02	190	2009	58	3.78	19.46	23.25
ZACK FITZGERALD	6.02	210	2003	88	7.89	15.25	23.14
KYLE ROSSITER	6.03	215	1998	30	6.04	16.93	22.97
JOHN NEGRIN	6.02	190	2007	70	0.94	22.00	22.94
KEVIN HOLDRIDGE	6.02	202	1998	70	4.33	18.58	22.91

Mercier is my darkhorse pick when it comes to OHL defenseman. He was buried playing on a deep Sault Ste. Marie defense and still was able to put up strong even strength numbers for a 6’4 d-men. When you look at his list of comparables, all but one was taken in the top 90 picks, so Mercier being left off of Central Scouting’s final rankings is a big oversight in my opinion.

 

RYAN PARENT	6.02	185	2005	18	2.35	16.22	18.57
ROBYN REGHER	6.04	215	1998	19	4.70	13.80	18.50
CLAYTON BARTHEL	6.03	200	2004	88	3.43	15.04	18.47
SHANE O’BRIEN	6.03	226	2001	UD	2.53	15.92	18.46
DAVID LIFFITON	6.02	205	2003	63	5.18	13.20	18.38
JOEL EDMUNDSON	6.04	208	2011	46	1.69	16.54	18.23
NATHAN MCIVER	6.02	200	2003	254	4.73	13.24	17.97
CHRIS MARTENET	6.07	198	2015	N/A	7.78	10.01	17.79
PATRICK WELLAR	6.03	220	2002	77	3.12	14.52	17.64
MICHAEL CARUSO	6.03	195	2006	103	2.03	15.56	17.59
BORIS VALABIK	6.06	229	2004	10	2.43	14.65	17.09
BEN CHIAROT	6.03	224	2009	120	2.32	14.58	16.90
JEAN-PHILIPPE COTE	6.02		2000	265	0.00	16.60	16.60
ALEX HENRY	6.05	200	1998	67	4.83	11.77	16.60
JEREMY VAN HOOF	6.02	185	1999	57	1.39	15.20	16.59

At 6’7″, Martenet satisfies my rule of thumb that if a player is under 200 lbs and projects to fewer than 30 points, it is best if they are a tall, lanky d-man. While he deserves consideration for a top 100 pick, it will be his physicality, mobility and hockey sense that will ultimately decide how high a pick you use on a raw project like Martenet.

CONCLUSION

The OHL was just able to edge out the WHL by having one more defenseman meet my system of determining which players are worth using a top 100 pick. This year, there is a top group of four offensive d-men in Vande Sompel, Dunn, Andersson and Dermott who could go anywhere from late 1st round picks to 3rd round selections. While they can all produce offensively, without scouting report we would be lost to what they bring for the rest of their game. Another player who looks good on paper is Schemitcsh but that does not mean he warrants such a high pick if the scouting reports are too negative. As for Bouramman and Capobianco, they are both players that may struggle to find their identity at the pro levels and neither are guarantees to be top 100 selections.  As for the four players that did not reach the 30 point threshold, Lemcke and Mercier are the bigger longshots of making the top 100. Meanwhile, both Spencer and Martenet could be taken in the top 100 as Spencer had hype coming into this year and Martenet has a lot of potential due to his size and raw skill. While it is not a standout year in terms of top end first round talent, there is a lot to like in this crop of OHL d-men and as many as 7-8 could go in the top 100 selections come this June.