ANALYZING THE 2015 NHL DRAFT: QMJHL D-MEN

In trying to determine whether or not I should invest time in a defenseman, I have come up with a system which I previously applied to the 2015 WHL draft crop. For my system for evaluating d-men, I took every d-man drafted between 1998 and 2006 that had 250 NHL games played (at the start of the 2014-2015 season) and used the ratio of their average point per game in juniors versus that in the NHL (broken down between non-pp points and pp points). By doing this, it helps adjust for the power play specialists and put more emphasis on the more important skill of creating offense at even strength. The rates I will be using to adjust each CHL d-men are:

	Non-PP Points	PP Points
NHL Pts/Game	0.2684	0.1552
CHL Pts/Game	0.2675	0.2667
	100.34%	58.19%

In another post, I used these ratios to see if I could find what makes a good top 100 pick. I discovered that it is best to divide defenseman between those who are average height or taller for a defenseman (6’2+) and those who are below average height (<6’2). I also discovered some rules of thumb which are:

• If a defenseman is less than 6’2”, they should project to be a 30+ point player over an 82 game season to warrant a top 100 selection.
• If they are 6’2 or over, they should project to be a 12+ point player over an 82 game season to warrant consideration as a top 100 pick. For those players that fall within the 12-30 point range, there is further criteria to be worth using a top 100 pick which is:
  • They are at least 200 lbs and if not, they should be tall (6’4+) and in most cases, play with a physical edge.

With defenseman it is tough to find comparable players using offensive totals, as there is so much more to their game than just being able to produce numbers. However, by looking at other players, that were of similar height and offensive scoring, we may be able to see a trend as to where they may be drafted and gain insights into what skills made a player either successful or not. The d-men 6’1 and under will be compared against others d-men that are 6’1 and under. The d-men 6’2 and over will be compared against d-men that are also 6’2 and over. I have picked the 7 players above and the 7 players below them from my list of comparables. When viewing the list of comparable player, the QMJHL defenseman from the 2015 draft is in bold in the centre of the list.

THE TOP QMJHL D-MEN

TREVOR DALEY	5.11	204	2002	43	14.47	47.35	61.81
MATHIEU CARLE	6.00	210	2006	53	15.32	46.39	61.71
DAN HAMHUIS	6.00	175	2001	12	15.10	46.07	61.17
MORGAN RIELLY	6.00	210	2012	5	10.73	47.86	58.59
STEVE MCCARTHY	6.00	200	1999	23	18.78	39.20	57.98
MATHEW DUMBA	6.00	182	2012	7	19.34	38.61	57.95
JULIUS HONKA	5.11	175	2014	14	17.21	40.27	57.47
LOÏK LÉVEILLÉ	6.00	223	2015	N/A	15.71	41.07	56.78
MICHAEL DEL ZOTTO	6.00	188	2008	20	15.25	41.20	56.45
CALVIN DE HAAN	6.01	189	2009	12	8.15	48.25	56.41
JOE MORROW	6.01	206	2011	23	11.40	44.18	55.58
IVAN VISHNEVSKIY	6.00	178	2006	27	14.47	40.24	54.72
DALTON THROWER	6.00	197	2012	51	16.71	37.56	54.28
NATHAN PAETSCH	6.00	205	2001	58	7.20	44.05	51.25
COLE JARRETT	6.00	200	2001	141	14.81	36.43	51.24

Leveille was 4^th in defensive scoring in the QMJHL, which puts him in the same range as many 1^st and 2^nd round choices over the year (13 of 14 comparables). However, Leveille is likely to be an outlier like Cole Jarrett as he is not a player that you will find in the top 100 rankings. The question is whether Leveille is under appreciated or is there some huge wart in his game that will hold him back from being a good pro?

DAN HAMHUIS	6.00	175	2001	12	15.10	46.07	61.17
MORGAN RIELLY	6.00	210	2012	5	10.73	47.86	58.59
STEVE MCCARTHY	6.00	200	1999	23	18.78	39.20	57.98
MATHEW DUMBA	6.00	182	2012	7	19.34	38.61	57.95
JULIUS HONKA	5.11	175	2014	14	17.21	40.27	57.47
MICHAEL DEL ZOTTO	6.00	188	2008	20	15.25	41.20	56.45
CALVIN DE HAAN	6.01	189	2009	12	8.15	48.25	56.41
JÉRÉMY ROY	6.00	188	2015	N/A	8.83	47.18	56.01
JOE MORROW	6.01	206	2011	23	11.40	44.18	55.58
IVAN VISHNEVSKIY	6.00	178	2006	27	14.47	40.24	54.72
DALTON THROWER	6.00	197	2012	51	16.71	37.56	54.28
NATHAN PAETSCH	6.00	205	2001	58	7.20	44.05	51.25
COLE JARRETT	6.00	200	2001	141	14.81	36.43	51.24
DREW DOUGHTY	6.00	213	2008	2	14.28	36.27	50.55
AARON JOHNSON	6.01	195	2001	85	10.75	39.69	50.44

Roy is a player that makes his way on to many top 30 rankings and with 10 of 14 comparable defenseman being taken in the first round, he is deserving of that consideration. Where Roy belongs within the first round is up for debate, but the majority of the comparable players fall outside of the top 10 in the 12-27 range.

MATHEW DUMBA	6.00	182	2012	7	19.34	38.61	57.95
JULIUS HONKA	5.11	175	2014	14	17.21	40.27	57.47
MICHAEL DEL ZOTTO	6.00	188	2008	20	15.25	41.20	56.45
CALVIN DE HAAN	6.01	189	2009	12	8.15	48.25	56.41
JOE MORROW	6.01	206	2011	23	11.40	44.18	55.58
IVAN VISHNEVSKIY	6.00	178	2006	27	14.47	40.24	54.72
DALTON THROWER	6.00	197	2012	51	16.71	37.56	54.28
ALEXANDER CARRIER	5.11	174	2015	N/A	13.71	38.72	52.43
NATHAN PAETSCH	6.00	205	2001	58	7.20	44.05	51.25
COLE JARRETT	6.00	200	2001	141	14.81	36.43	51.24
DREW DOUGHTY	6.00	213	2008	2	14.28	36.27	50.55
AARON JOHNSON	6.01	195	2001	85	10.75	39.69	50.44
DERRICK POULIOT	6.00	203	2012	8	9.68	40.66	50.34
STEFAN ELLIOTT	6.01	192	2009	49	13.94	35.88	49.83
FILIP NOVAK	6.01	180	2000	64	10.91	38.85	49.76

8 of the 14 comparable defenseman for Carrier are 1st round choices but Carrier is not a player that appears on any top 30 rankings. Instead he is more likely comparable to the 2nd group of players which fall between being a mid-second round choice to a late 3rd round pick.

DOUGIE HAMILTON	6.05	205	2011	9	11.13	48.25	59.38
BOB SANGUINETTI	6.02	183	2006	21	14.54	44.28	58.82
BRAD STUART	6.02	216	1998	3	17.82	39.11	56.92
CAM FOWLER	6.02	199	2010	12	8.49	47.21	55.70
AARON EKBLAD	6.04	217	2014	1	21.93	32.98	54.92
CAM BARKER	6.03	210	2004	3	17.14	36.57	53.71
STEVE EMINGER	6.02	200	2002	12	17.91	34.36	52.27
NICOLAS MELOCHE	6.03	204	2015	N/A	16.87	34.82	51.69
BRANDON GORMLEY	6.02	190	2010	13	8.72	41.32	50.04
OLLI MAATA	6.02	198	2012	22	10.86	37.59	48.45
DUSTIN BYFUGLIEN	6.03	264	2003	245	13.14	34.66	47.80
DILLON FOURNIER	6.02	187	2012	48	11.58	35.25	46.83
NATHAN BEAULIEU	6.03	190	2011	17	11.56	34.77	46.33
SLATER KOEKKOEK	6.02	188	2012	10	14.49	31.83	46.33
DOUG LYNCH	6.03	200	2001	43	10.01	35.49	45.51

With his size and scoring, Meloche is comparable to 11 of 14 players that were 1^st round choices so he definitely at least deserves a look as a late 1^st round choice. Out of the picks that were not taken in the first round, two were taken in the 2^nd round, with only Byfuglien being an outsider, making Meloche seem like a solid pick in the first two rounds.

FILIP NOVAK	6.01	180	2000	64	10.91	38.85	49.76
KRIS RUSSELL	5.10	177	2005	67	20.09	28.96	49.04
TYSON BARRIE	5.10	191	2009	64	9.25	39.00	48.25
RYAN PULOCK	6.01	218	2013	15	14.92	33.31	48.23
P.K. SUBBAN	6.00	202	2007	43	13.16	34.42	47.58
XAVIER OUELLET	6.01	177	2011	48	7.65	39.66	47.31
YANNICK WEBER	5.10	195	2007	73	13.88	33.38	47.25
JAKUB ZBORIL	6.01	184	2015	N/A	15.75	31.30	47.05
ROLAND MCKEOWN	6.01	195	2014	50	12.31	34.22	46.53
RYAN MURRAY	6.01	195	2012	2	18.36	27.74	46.11
JORDAN SUBBAN	5.09	185	2013	115	14.02	32.06	46.07
DENNIS WIDEMAN	6.00	202	2001	ND	17.09	28.64	45.74
TIM GLEASON	6.01	205	2001	23	10.14	35.44	45.57
MATT FINN	6.01	204	2012	35	9.70	35.71	45.41
CARLO COLAIACOVO	6.01	194	2001	17	13.23	31.81	45.03

Zboril is a player that appears in many top 30 rankings, but based on these comparable players, he is not a sure bet to go in the first round. Only 4 of the 14 comparable defenseman were 1st round choices (Murray, Gleason, Colaiacovo and Pulock) so don’t be surprised if Zboril is a second day choice.

DARNELL NURSE	6.04	205	2013	7	13.52	30.91	44.43
JEROME LEDUC	6.02	194	2010	68	18.10	25.99	44.10
KARL ALZNER	6.02	209	2007	5	6.16	37.72	43.88
DAMON SEVERSON	6.02	210	2012	60	11.19	32.50	43.69
ROSTISLAV KLESLA	6.02	200	2000	4	15.37	28.13	43.50
SHEA THEODORE	6.02	186	2013	26	16.05	27.28	43.33
HAYDN FLEURY	6.03	198	2014	7	7.32	35.76	43.08
JÉRÉMY LAUZON	6.02	193	2015	N/A	18.84	24.19	43.03
ERIK GUDBRANSON	6.04	217	2010	3	4.42	37.98	42.41
KEVIN KLEIN	6.02	192	2003	37	8.46	33.73	42.20
ALEX PLANTE	6.04	220	2007	15	10.20	30.04	40.23
SHAONE MORRISONN	6.03		2001	19	12.73	26.86	39.59
JYRI NIEMI	6.02	202	2008	72	17.16	22.30	39.46
DUNCAN SIEMENS	6.04	209	2011	11	4.76	33.97	38.73
ALEXIS VANIER	6.05	225	2014	102	15.13	23.23	38.36

Lauzon has some size and can move the puck which is why there are 9 first round comparable d-men showcasing Lauzon’s potential upside. While he has the size and stats of a first round pick, Lauzon is more likely to be a 2nd or 3rd round choice, but sometimes good players slip through the cracks like Severson.

JEROME LEDUC	6.02	194	2010	68	18.10	25.99	44.10
KARL ALZNER	6.02	209	2007	5	6.16	37.72	43.88
DAMON SEVERSON	6.02	210	2012	60	11.19	32.50	43.69
ROSTISLAV KLESLA	6.02	200	2000	4	15.37	28.13	43.50
SHEA THEODORE	6.02	186	2013	26	16.05	27.28	43.33
HAYDN FLEURY	6.03	198	2014	7	7.32	35.76	43.08
ERIK GUDBRANSON	6.04	217	2010	3	4.42	37.98	42.41
THOMAS CHABOT	6.02	180	2015	N/A	12.45	29.90	42.34
KEVIN KLEIN	6.02	192	2003	37	8.46	33.73	42.20
ALEX PLANTE	6.04	220	2007	15	10.20	30.04	40.23
SHAONE MORRISONN	6.03		2001	19	12.73	26.86	39.59
JYRI NIEMI	6.02	202	2008	72	17.16	22.30	39.46
DUNCAN SIEMENS	6.04	209	2011	11	4.76	33.97	38.73
ALEXIS VANIER	6.05	225	2014	102	15.13	23.23	38.36
BRENT SEABROOK	6.03	215	2003	14	7.73	30.33	38.06

Chabot, like his teammate Zboril, is getting some buzz as a potential first round pick. If you take a look at the comparable d-men for Chabot and Lauzon, they have the same list of players but Chabot is consistently rated ahead. That is where the draft guides come into play and you can analyze whether you agree with the scouts on why they believe Chabot is the superior d-man.

STUART PERCY	6.01	196	2011	25	4.64	31.77	36.42
MARK BARBERIO	6.01	185	2008	152	8.98	28.11	36.31
BRENDAN BELL	6.01	207	2001	65	6.30	29.99	36.29
BEN SHUTRON	6.00	195	2006	95	7.96	28.31	36.27
ROSS LUPASCHUCK	6.01	212	1999	34	10.48	24.76	35.25
JAMES WISNIEWSKI	5.11	200	2002	156	10.96	24.03	34.99
ZBYNEK MICHALEK	6.01	176	2001	ND	9.03	25.94	34.97
SIMON BOURQUE	6.00	184	2015	N/A	9.83	24.88	34.71
ADAM JANOSIK	5.11	178	2010	72	12.47	21.14	33.61
KYLE CUMISKEY	5.11	172	2005	222	2.35	29.76	32.10
AGRIS SAVIELS	6.01	205	2000	63	8.33	23.67	32.00
JARED SPURGEON	5.09	185	2008	156	3.61	28.47	31.89
T.J. BRODIE	6.01	173	2008	114	9.05	23.23	31.89
JOSH GORGES	6.00	180	2002	ND	5.98	25.67	31.64
MARC EDOUARD VLASIC	6.01	194	2005	35	5.69	25.89	31.58

For Bourque, he has three comparable d-men that were taken before the third round, which means a likely place to start considering him would be in the 3rd round or later. When you look at the players taken after the top 100 (Brodie, Spurgeon, Wisniewski, Cumiskey, Georges, Michalek), Bourque is a player to jump on in the 4th or later rounds.

MICHAEL STONE	6.04	207	2008	69	8.52	18.81	26.53
JORDAN SMITH	6.02	203	2004	39	5.74	20.13	25.87
ANDREY PEDAN	6.04	211	2011	63	2.28	23.56	25.84
NIKITA ZADOROV	6.05	235	2013	16	7.10	18.64	25.73
KURTIS FOSTER	6.04	200	2000	40	7.42	18.28	25.70
COLTEN TEUBERT	6.04	201	2008	13	8.18	17.65	25.63
BROCK BEUKEBOOM	6.02	215	2010	63	7.05	18.17	25.22
JAKE BARTER	6.02	208	2015	N/A	1.25	23.56	24.81
COLBY ROBAK	6.04	207	2008	46	4.17	20.77	24.49
MIKE WEBER	6.02	205	2006	57	4.56	19.81	24.38
MIKE FUNK	6.04	208	2004	43	2.79	21.33	24.12
PAUL BISSONNETTE	6.02	216	2003	121	8.08	16.04	24.12
JAY HARRISON	6.04	211	2001	82	6.08	17.89	23.97
JONATHAN DIABY	6.05	240	2013	64	3.42	19.90	23.32
JESSE BLACKER	6.02	190	2009	58	3.78	19.46	23.25

Unless you follow the draft closely, the name Jake Barter is likely one that is not familiar to you. With 11 of his 14 comparables being 2nd or 3rd round choices, that would normally be a good area to start looking at Barter. However, he is never mentioned and could be a possible late round steal for a d-man with good size and some ability to move the puck.

CLAYTON BARTHEL	6.03	200	2004	88	3.43	15.04	18.47
SHANE O’BRIEN	6.03	226	2001	ND	2.53	15.92	18.46
DAVID LIFFITON	6.02	205	2003	63	5.18	13.20	18.38
JOEL EDMUNDSON	6.04	208	2011	46	1.69	16.54	18.23
NATHAN MCIVER	6.02	200	2003	254	4.73	13.24	17.97
PATRICK WELLAR	6.03	220	2002	77	3.12	14.52	17.64
MICHAEL CARUSO	6.03	195	2006	103	2.03	15.56	17.59
ANDREW PICCO	6.03	215	2015	N/A	3.38	13.89	17.27
BORIS VALABIK	6.06	229	2004	10	2.43	14.65	17.09
BEN CHIAROT	6.03	224	2009	120	2.32	14.58	16.90
JEAN-PHILIPPE COTE	6.02		2000	265	0.00	16.60	16.60
ALEX HENRY	6.05	200	1998	67	4.83	11.77	16.60
JEREMY VAN HOOF	6.02	185	1999	57	1.39	15.20	16.59
ROBERT BORTUZZO	6.04	207	2007	78	3.43	13.12	16.55
MARCO SCANDELLA	6.03	220	2008	55	4.77	11.29	16.04

Picco is the last Q d-men to satisfy my rules of thumb and makes the list mainly due to his size. With most of the comparable d-men being 3rd round or later picks (10/14), Picco is a long-shot player to be in my ranking as he just makes the cut for top 100 consideration.

TY WISHART	6.05	203	2006	16	4.10	24.97	29.07
ALLAN ROURKE	6.02	195	1998	154	6.58	22.31	28.89
JOEY LEACH	6.04	200	2010	73	4.33	24.44	28.78
PETER REYNOLDS	6.03	188	1999	60	3.59	24.72	28.31
DAVID MUSIL	6.04	203	2011	31	6.96	21.27	28.22
DYLAN MCILRATH	6.05	215	2010	10	8.00	20.09	28.09
KYLE WHARTON	6.02	189	2004	59	9.18	18.63	27.81
GULLAUME BRISEBOIS	6.02	175	2015	N/A	3.58	24.21	27.79
BRYAN ALLEN	6.04	217	1998	4	7.36	20.12	27.48
DREW SCHIESTEL	6.02	193	2007	59	5.01	22.39	27.39
JARED COWEN	6.05	220	2009	9	9.84	17.52	27.36
MIKE SAUER	6.03	205	2005	40	4.06	22.88	26.95
LUC BOURDON	6.03	215	2005	10	11.33	15.42	26.75
ALEXANDRE PICARD	6.02	222	2003	85	3.21	23.52	26.72
BRANISLAV MEZEI	6.03	210	1999	10	4.39	22.32	26.71

Brisebois did not actually meet my rules of thumb as he projects to less than 30 points and does not meet the 200 lb threshold (175 lbs so not even close). However, these are only rules of thumb and Brisebois is a player that consistently makes various top 100 rankings. If you remove the players over 200 lbs from the comparable d-men the four players were taken 59,59,60 and 154.

CONCLUSION

Using my system of determining which defenseman are worth using a top 100 pick. the QMJHL had 10 players which matched the WHL while being one short of the OHL. This year, there were multiple defenseman who demonstrated the ability to produce offense at both even strength and on the power-play. Where they all will be taken is a wide range and we will need scouting reports to help out or we would be lost to what they bring for the rest of their game. A group of the players are likely to receive 1st or 2nd round selections (Roy, Zboril, Chabot, Meloche) while others will have trouble being taken in the top 100 (Carrier, Leveille). There are also a couple of other players in Lauzon and Brisebois, who are likely to fall between the two groups of players mentioned above in the 2nd or 3rd round. As for Bourque, Barter and Picco they are all likely to be a 3rd round or later picks, though a strong argument could be made that Bourque will be the only d-man of them getting top 100 consideration. Therefore, I am suggesting there are upwards of 9 d-men from the QMJHL that deserve consideration in the top 100. So not only it is a good year for the forwards from the Q, it is also a good year for d-men and a team would be wise to stock up on them in the 2nd and 3rd round.