THE AMERICANS ARE COMING

In previous posts, I evaluated first year draft eligible CHL forwards by comparing them statistically against comparable forwards in prior draft years. Typically, most people simply compare just points-per-game but that discounts the fact that different players score a different percentage of their points on the power play versus at even strength. I created what I call the NHL Projection formula (NHLP), which is a formula that takes a CHL player’s non-power play and power play stats in their first draft eligible year and projects what they will produce in their best NHL season. It also takes age into account, which I have found has an effect on only power play production. The NHLP numbers are prorated over an 82 game season. The formula is:

Since the NHLP formula is for CHL forwards, it becomes a problem in trying to apply the NHLP formula to other leagues. Therefore, the solution to the problem is to use NHL equivalency, though with reservations. In doing research in creating the NHLP formula, there was no evidence that a point in the WHL is different from a point in the OHL or the QMJHL. However, according to the NHL equivalencies by Gabriel Desjardins and Rob Vollman, the OHL is the superior league and they produce more draft picks than the other two CHL leagues. Therefore, with no certainty can I say that the NHL equivalencies used for the American leagues in this post are accurate, but for now, it will give me the best information possible in analysing the American forwards for the 2015 NHL entry draft. The NHL equivalencies I am using for the American leagues are as follows:

JACK EICHEL

Eichel had an amazing season as he joined Paul Kariya as the only freshman to lead the NCAA in scoring and win the Hobey Baker trophy as the best player in college hockey. To calculate his NHLP score, Eichel’s point totals were adjusted by a factor of 1.10 (0.33/0.30) before applying the formula. The projection for his best season is:

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
JACK EICHEL	C	R	6.02	196
NHLP	G	A	P
	32	52	84

Since Eichel would normally be a #1 choice, how does he compare with other #1 picks from the CHL since 1998:

NAME	HT	WT	YEAR	G	A	P
SIDNEY CROSBY	5.11	190	2005	46	64	110
PATRICK KANE	5.11	181	2007	42	53	95
VINCENT LECAVALIER	6.03	182	1998	35	53	88
NATHAN MACKINNON	5.11	179	2013	33	50	83
TAYLOR HALL	6.01	185	2010	33	46	79
JOHN TAVARES	6.01	198	2009	43	32	75
STEVEN STAMKOS	6.01	180	2008	45	29	74
RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS	6.00	173	2011	24	46	70
NAIL YAKUPOV	5.11	190	2012	31	37	68
RICK NASH	6.03	181	2002	32	36	68

Eichel’s 84-point projection puts him in 4^th place for 1^st overall picks and in terms of players with size, the only player in a comparable range to Eichel is Vinny Lecavalier. Not surprisingly, the statistics back up Eichel as one of the best players in the last 17 years, as well as a worthy #1 pick in almost any draft year. It is just his luck that he had to be in the same draft as a generational player as McDavid.

NAME	HT	WT	YEAR	G	A	P
JASON SPEZZA	6.02	204	2001	33	53	86
DAVID LEGWAND	6.02	175	1998	40	40	80
SAM REINHART	6.01	183	2014	26	50	76
TYLER SEGUIN	6.01	186	2010	35	38	73
ERIC STAAL	6.03	185	2003	30	39	69
BOBBY RYAN	6.01	215	2005	27	40	67
GABRIEL LANDESKOG	6.01	207	2011	33	28	61
JORDAN STAAL	6.03	200	2006	27	30	57

In terms of 2^nd overall picks, Eichel is near the top of the heap as he is in the same range as the much hyped Jason Spezza. However, while Eichel and Spezza project to similar offensive upside, I believe that most scouts would say Eichel was the better player at the same age and has the potential to go down as one of the best 2^nd overall picks of all time.

USHL/USNTDP FORWARDS

The USHL has come a long way turning itself into one of the best junior leagues in the world over the years. For their NHL projections, the point totals of each USHL and USNTDP players were adjusted by the rate of 0.90 (0.27/0.30). With the CHL players, I compared them to other players with similar NHLP scores and similar height from previous years. Out of those CHL players, 46 of them were standouts and I will be comparing their NHLP scores against the 15 USHL players that fall within the same range.

	NAME	HT	WT	G	A	P
1	CONNOR MCDAVID	6.01	195	41	61	102
2	MITCHELL MARNER	5.11	160	34	54	88
3	JACK EICHEL	6.02	196	32	52	84
4	DYLAN STROME	6.03	185	29	48	77
5	ANTHONY BEAUVILLIER	5.10	173	31	36	67
6	TIMO MEIER	6.01	209	30	36	66
7	MATHEW BARZAL	5.11	175	17	49	66
8	EVGENY SVECHNIKOV	6.02	199	26	39	65
9	JEREMY BRACCO	5.09	173	21	44	65
10	NICK MERKLEY	5.11	191	14	51	65
11	ANTHONY RICHARD	5.10	163	34	30	64
12	DANIEL SPRONG	6.00	180	30	33	63
13	KYLE CONNOR	6.01	177	29	32	61
14	TRAVIS KONECNY	5.10	175	26	35	61
15	FILIP CHLAPIK	6.01	196	26	35	61
16	YAKOV TRENIN	6.02	194	16	44	60
17	DANTE SALITURO	5.08	178	28	31	59
18	JANSEN HARKINS	6.01	180	15	44	59
19	DMYTRO TIMASHOV	5.09	192	12	47	59
20	KAY SCHWERI	5.10	175	11	48	59
21	DENNIS YAN	6.01	184	33	25	58
22	JACK ROSLOVIC	6.01	182	19	38	57
23	BROCK BOESER	6.01	191	30	26	56
24	NATHAN NOEL	5.11	172	23	32	55
25	BLAKE SPEERS	5.11	181	20	35	55
26	JAKE DEBRUSK	6.00	174	29	25	54
27	LAWSON CROUSE	6.04	215	31	22	53
28	COOPER MARODY	6.00	173	18	35	53
29	ERIK FOLEY	6.00	185	17	36	53
30	TOM NOVAK	6.01	179	27	25	52
31	NIKITA KOROSTELEV	6.01	195	25	27	52
32	PAUL BITTNER	6.04	204	23	29	52
33	PAVEL ZACHA	6.03	210	26	25	51
34	CHRISTIAN FISCHER	6.01	212	25	26	51
35	COLIN WHITE	6.00	183	22	29	51
36	JAKOB FORSBACKA-KARLSSON	6.01	190	17	34	51
37	TYLER SOY	6.00	172	22	28	50
38	ADAM MARSH	6.00	160	27	22	49
39	BRENT GATES	6.02	196	17	32	49
40	GABRIEL GAGNE	6.05	186	29	19	48
41	RYAN GROPP	6.02	187	24	24	48
42	TANNER LACZYNSKI	6.00	182	19	29	48
43	JEAN-CHRISTOPHE BEAUDIN	6.01	181	12	36	48
44	GIORGIO ESTEPHAN	6.00	188	21	26	47
45	BRAD MORRISON	6.00	154	21	25	46
46	JEREMIAH ADDISON	6.00	182	20	26	46
47	NICOLAS ROY	6.04	195	16	30	46
48	GLENN GAWDIN	6.01	191	14	32	46
49	JORDAN GREENWAY	6.05	222	10	36	46
50	JESSE GABRIELLE	5.11	205	23	22	45
51	MATHIEU JOSEPH	6.01	166	22	23	45
52	MITCHELL STEPHENS	5.11	188	21	24	45
53	ZACHARY SENYSHYN	6.01	192	25	19	44
54	AUSTIN WAGNER	6.01	178	20	24	44
55	GRAHAM KNOTT	6.03	190	24	19	43
56	CAMERON ASKEW	6.02	203	16	27	43
57	RYAN DMOWSKI	6.00	179	25	17	42
58	KEEGAN KOLESAR	6.01	217	21	21	42
59	BRENDAN WARREN	6.00	191	21	21	42
60	PAVEL KARNAUKHOV	6.03	194	19	23	42
61	ADAM MUSIL	6.03	202	16	26	42
62	ANTHONY CIRELLI	6.00	160	15	27	42

• Bracco leads the way statistically but due to his 5’9 frame he will not be the first USHL player chosen. For players under 5’10 only Beauvillier projects better than Bracco. With undersized skill players there tends to be a wide range of opinions from the scouts and Bracco could be anywhere from a late 1^st to a 3^rd round pick.
• Connor is the consensus top choice from the USHL and with him projecting to having 60+ points potential, the stats back it up. Offensively, he is right there with other top picks such as Merkley, Sprong and Konecny.
• Roslovic and Boeser are both average sized players that project to have 2^nd line upside similar to CHL players Harkins, Yan and Debrusk. Typically players in this range are considered 2^nd round picks with an outside chance of being a late 1^st round pick.
• In the 28-30 spots there is a group of three USHL players in Marody, Foley and Novak that have similar offensive upside. However, despite putting up similar stats that does not mean they are all equal players. Based on the scouts, Novak is the best (consensus 2^nd round), than Foley (consensus 3^rd round) and then Marody a distant 3^rd (4^th or later rounds). When I see these results, red flags go up that Marody is a potential steal.
• In the next grouping of forwards, in the 34-36 spot, all three of Fischer, White and Forsbacka-Karlsson project to have 51point potential over an 82 game season. Once again there is a difference in the consensus rankings as White is considered a 1^st round pick while Fischer and Forsbacka-Karlsson are more likely to be 2^nd round picks. In cases like these, the player projected to be in the first round (White) usually brings strong two-way play and intangibles to the table (character, heart, leadership) that make up for having less offensive potential relative to where they are picked.
• Usually players that are 6’2 and put up almost a PPG in their junior league tend to receive more buzz as a consensus 2^nd or 3^rd round choice but that is not the case with Gates. Players like this intrigue me as more information is needed as to whether Gates is a potential steal or has some major warts to his game.
• Laczynski and Dmowski do not show up on Central Scouting’s final rankings but based on their stats they more than deserve to be. These are the type of players who could be great steals in the later rounds of the draft.
• Greenway and Nicolas Roy are both big forwards who project to have 46 point potential and at one point in time were considered as 1^st round choices. However, there is more to hockey than just size and both players have warts to their game that drop them down to being considered 2^nd or 3^rd round choices.
• Warren is similar to Cirelli, as both just make the list being only 6’ tall and neither forward projects to be a top 6 player. However, he was able to crack Bob McKenzie’s top 75, which means the scouts like him. Typically he is seen as a 3^rd or 4^th round choice.

WHAT ABOUT THE D-MEN?

For defenseman, to determine whether or not I should invest time in them, I have come up with some rules of thumb. To do this, I took every d-man drafted between 1998 and 2006 in the CHL that had 250 NHL games played (at the start of the 2014-2015 season) and used the ratio of their average point per game in juniors versus that in the NHL (broken down between non-PP points and PP points). By doing this, it helps adjust for the power play specialists and put more emphasis on the more important skill of creating offense at even strength. The rates I am using to adjust the d-men are:

	Non-PP Points	PP Points
NHL Pts/Game	0.2684	0.1552
CHL Pts/Game	0.2675	0.2667
	100.34%	58.19%

In another post, I used these ratios to see if I could find what makes a good top 100 pick. I discovered that it is best to divide defenseman between those who are average height or taller for a defenseman (6’2+) and those who are below average height (<6’2). I also discovered some rules of thumb which are:

• If a defenseman is less than 6’2”, they should project to be a 30+ point player over an 82 game season to warrant a top 100 selection.
• If they are 6’2 or over, they should project to be a 12+ point player over an 82 game season to warrant consideration as a top 100 pick. For those players that fall within the 12-30 point range, there is further criteria to be worth using a top 100 pick which is:
  • They are at least 200 lbs and if not, they should be tall (6’4+) and in most cases, play with a physical edge.

For the CHL, using these rules of thumb, there are 32 defenseman that stand out and will be compared with the 2 NCAA defenseman and 4 USHL/USNTDP defenseman that have met the requirements.

	NAME	HT	WT	G	A	P
1	MITCHELL VANDE SOMPEL	5.10	182	14	48	62
2	IVAN PROVOROV	6.01	201	14	46	60
3	ZACH WERENSKI	6.02	206	22	35	57
4	VINCE DUNN	6.00	187	21	36	57
5	LOIK LEVEILLE	6.00	223	16	41	57
6	JEREMY ROY	6.00	188	9	47	56
7	RASMUS ANDERSSON	6.00	212	11	43	54
8	ALEXANDRE CARRIER	5.11	174	13	39	52
9	NICOLAS MELOCHE	6.03	204	17	32	52
10	TRAVIS DERMOTT	5.11	197	11	40	51
11	RYAN PILON	6.02	206	10	40	50
12	JAKUB ZBORIL	6.01	184	16	31	47
13	NOAH HANIFIN	6.03	206	11	36	47
14	NOAH JUULSEN	6.01	174	8	38	46
15	THOMAS SCHEMITSCH	6.04	206	13	31	44
16	JEREMY LAUZON	6.02	193	19	24	43
17	THOMAS CHABOT	6.02	180	12	30	42
18	GUSTAV BOURAMMAN	5.11	184	4	37	41
19	PARKER WOTHERSPOON	6.00	171	8	30	38
20	KYLE CAPOBIANCO	6.01	178	10	27	37
21	DUSTIN PERILLAT	5.11	180	10	27	37
22	SIMON BOURQUE	6.00	184	10	25	35
23	ETHAN BEAR	5.11	200	12	21	33
24	BRENDAN GUHLE	6.02	184	5	28	33
25	JUSTIN BAUDRY	5.11	186	2	30	32
26	ANDREW NIELSEN	6.03	207	8	20	28
27	MATT SPENCER	6.02	203	7	21	28
28	GUILLAUME BRISEBOIS	6.02	175	4	24	28
29	DENNIS GILBERT	6.02	201	3	25	28
30	JUSTIN LEMCKE	6.02	200	10	16	26
31	BRANDON CARLO	6.05	196	5	21	26
32	JAKE BARTER	6.02	208	1	24	25
33	MEDRIC MERCIER	6.04	202	7	17	24
34	ETHAN SPAXMAN	6.04	193	3	21	24
35	CHAZ REDDEKOPP	6.03	219	4	15	19
36	CHRIS MARTENET	6.07	198	8	10	18
37	JOSEPH CECCONI	6.02	209	3	15	18
38	ANDREW PICCO	6.03	215	3	14	17

• For Werenski I used an NHLE of 0.36, which is the average of Rob Vollman’s equivalency for the CCHA (0.30) and WCHA (0.42) which is the two leagues that formed the Big Ten. At that equivalency, Werenski is up at the top of the 2015 class, which falls in line with him being considered one of the best offensive d-men in the draft.
• Hanifin plays in Hockey East, which has an NHLE of 0.33. While he is not the top of the class in terms of offensive ability, Hannifin still shows strong offensive upside to go along with a being a rock defensively. To make a comparison, Ryan Murray projected as a 46-point player and was taken #2 overall in 2012 but if he was in the same draft class as Hannifin, I think most everyone would go with the American player.
• As for the USHL and USNTDP defenseman, there are no statistical standouts. Baudry barely made the cut to be on this list and is a player that is a long shot to be drafted. With only three players worth looking at, this is a very weak crop of d-men. Out of the three players, Gilbert is the most liked with scouts as a 3^rd or 4^th round pick. Spaxman and Cecconi, while unlikely to be taken in the top 100, are players worth looking into in the later rounds.