THE MAGIC NUMBER IS 66

TSN’s Scott Cullen does an article every year where he analyzes the expected value of NHL draft picks. In his analysis of the first round, Cullen looks at each draft position and applies a numerical rating system for the average rating for that draft selection, along with the percentage of players to play at least 100 NHL games. I wanted to do something in a similar vein for NHLP, which is my statistical point prediction model for first year draft eligible forwards. There is a strong tie between junior and NHL scoring as my research has shown that for CHL forwards who play 250+ NHL games, that over 1/3 of their future NHL production can be explained be their junior production, in the season they first become draft eligible. The formula to calculate NHLP is:

Non powerplay points (ES+SH): (0.201645 + 0.220766 X Non-PP Pts/G) + (0.563435 X Non-PP Contribution %)

+

Powerplay points: (0.699759 + 0.179796 X PP Pts/G) – (0.036095 X Age on Sep 15 of Draft Year) + (0.250900 X PP Contribution %)

Note: Contribution % is defined as the percentage of a team’s regulation scoring (shootgoals are removed) in which a player receives a point. Games missed by a player are removed from the equation.

Note: Age only plays a factor for powerplay scoring.

In Cullen’s article, he looks at all first round players drafted between 1990 and 2010, but for this analysis of NHLP, I have applied the formula to 119 first year draft eligible CHL forwards that were selected between 1998 and 2010. Like Cullen, I wanted to analyze the percentage of players that played at least 100 NHL games per NHLP score, but rather than using a numerical rating system, I decided to analyze the percentage of players with at least 100 NHL games and a career points-per-game of 0.50 or greater. By analyzing where there are distinct drop-offs in the percentage of players with at least 100 NHL games and a career points-per-game of 0.50, I was able to separate the 119 players into four separate groups.

NHLP: 66 or greater

# of 1^st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 37

Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 92%

Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 81%

Average Games Played: 590

Average Points/Game: 0.71

NHLP: 60-65

# of 1^st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 31

Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 71%

Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 42%

Average Games Played: 371

Average Points/Game: 0.58

NHLP: 52-59

# of 1^st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 32

Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 72%

Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 22%

Average Games Played: 330

Average Points/Game: 0.47

NHLP: 50 or less

# of 1^st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 19

Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 74%

Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 0%

Average Games Played: 312

Average Points/Game: 0.28

• Forwards chosen in the 1^st round with a NHLP of 66 or greater, have a 28% better chance of playing at least 100 NHL games (92%) than those forwards with a NHLP of 65 or less (72%).
• Using percentage of players to reach 100 NHL games is a useful tool, but should not be used as a stand alone, as it does not account for quality of player. The percentage of players to reach 100 NHL games, while having a 0.50 P/G or better, is cut in half with each group.

66+         81%

60-65     42%

52-59     22%

51-          0%

• Forwards chosen in the 1^st round with a NHLP of 66 or greater, are over 3X as likely to reach the benchmark of playing at least 100 NHL games while scoring at a rate of 0.50 Pts/G or better (81%) than compared to those forwards with a NHLP of 65 or less (24%).
• There is a downward trend in the average games played and average points-per-game of the four groups.

66+         590G      0.71Pts/G

60-65     371G      0.58 Pts/G

52-59     330G      0.47 Pts/G

51-          312G      0.28 Pts/G

Likelihood of Success for 2011-2015 Selections

Therefore, using the historical numbers from 1998 and 2010, what is the likelihood of success of the CHL forwards drafted between 2011 and 2015:

NHLP: 66 or greater (2011-2015)

# of 1^st round picks between 2011 and 2015: 26

Estimated number to play at least 100 NHL games: 24

Estimated number to play 100+ games with 0.50+ Pts/G: 21

Actual number to play at least 100 NHL games: 7

Actual number to play 100+ games with 0.50+ Pts/G: 5

• For players that have not reached 100 NHL games yet, there is an 89% chance they will reach that mark.
• For players that have not reached the combination of 100 NHL games and a 0.50+ career points/game, there is a 76% chance they will reach that mark.

NHLP: 60-65 (2011-2015)

# of 1^st round picks between 2011 and 2015: 16

Estimated number to play at least 100 NHL games: 11

Estimated number to play 100+ games with 0.50+ Pts/G: 7

Actual number to play at least 100 NHL games: 4

Actual number to play 100+ games with 0.50+ Pts/G: 2

• For players that have not reached 100 NHL games yet, there is a 58% chance they will reach that mark.
• For players that have not reached the combination of 100 NHL games and a 0.50+ career points/game, there is a 36% chance they will reach that mark.

NHLP: 52-59 (2011-2015)

# of 1^st round picks between 2011 and 2015: 13

Estimated number to play at least 100 NHL games: 9

Estimated number to play 100+ games with 0.50+ Pts/G: 3

Actual number to play at least 100 NHL games: 1

Actual number to play 100+ games with 0.50+ Pts/G: 0

• For players that have not reached 100 NHL games yet, there is a 67% chance they will reach that mark.
• For players that have not reached the combination of 100 NHL games and a 0.50+ career points/game, there is a 23% chance they will reach that mark.

NHLP: 51 or less (2011-2015)

# of 1^st round picks between 2011 and 2015: 9

Estimated number to play at least 100 NHL games: 7

Estimated number to play 100+ games with 0.50+ Pts/G: 0

Actual number to play at least 100 NHL games: 3

Actual number to play 100+ games with 0.50+ Pts/G: 0

• Note: Galchenyuk was removed from the analysis as he would have likely been a 60+ player if he had not missed almost the entire season
• For players that have not reached 100 NHL games yet, there is a 67% chance they will reach that mark.
• For players that have not reached the combination of 100 NHL games and a 0.50+ career points/game, there is a 0% chance they will reach that mark.