Knowing the expected value of a draft selection is critical to a team’s success at the NHL Entry Draft. It can be a useful tool for conceiving draft strategies, improving upon draft rankings or making trades. By knowing the value of a draft selection, teams are better off in making sound decisions on what to give up or receive in return when making a trade. This is important, as the ability to make successful trades at the NHL Draft can be a key component to whether that draft ends up being a success or failure. In a previous post, I examined the value of a first round selection. In this continuation of that post, I examine the draft value of a 2nd and 3rd round selection.
Method of Analysis
To measure the expected draft value of a defenseman, this study uses games played and career average time on ice (ATOI) as its measurements. For first year draft eligible defenseman, selected in the top 30 between 1998 and 2010, we find that 40% of them reached 100 games played while maintaining a career ATOI of 18.5 minutes/game. This is the same ratio for first year draft eligible forwards, selected in the top 30, who score at a career average of 0.50 Pts/game or better. Therefore, for this study we will assume that a defenseman that plays 18.5 minutes/game or better, has the same value as a forward who scores 0.50 Pts/game or better. Therefore, by examining the likelihood of defenseman to reach the threshold of playing 100 games, while having an ATOI of 18.5 minutes/game, the top 30 selections can be separated into five groups. The results for the groups are:
Group 5 was simply the 30th overall selections, as they were dragging down the results for the Group 4 defenseman. This is because the 30th overall selections actually fit better when grouped with the second round selections. When we continue with the same method of analysis for evaluating expected value of a draft pick, we find that selections 30 through 90 can be divided into three groups.
GROUP FIVE: 30-50 OVERALL
# of 1st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 82
Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 32%
Percentage with 100+ games and ATOI of 18:30+: 17%
Average Games Played: 135
ATOI: 10:42
Average Points/Game: 0.16
The range for each group continues to get larger as we progress through the draft rankings. Group 5 is comprised of a range of 21 selections, between 30th and 50th overall, which is the total of Group 3 (9-18) and Group 4 (19-29) combined. This demonstrates that there is less and less that separates defenseman as the draft unfolds. Compared to the defenseman in Group 4, the Group 5 defenseman are only 24% less likely to average over 18.5 minutes/game. The drop-offs between groups are greater between Group 2 and Group 3 (36%) than between Group 3 and Group 4 (54%). In addition, the likelihood of finding a career 20+ minute per game defenseman only sees a 23% drop-off when comparing Group 5 to Group 4 defenseman. However, while the quality does not see a large drop-off, the quantity of players to reach 100 games played does, as Group 5 defensemen are 49% less likely to reach 100 NHL games than Group 4 defensemen.
Therefore, the defenseman that are picked in the early to mid-second round are twice as likely to bust than a late first round defenseman. That is a large reason why an average player in Group 5 will play about 130 less games and 4 minutes per game less than an average selection in Group 4. When one compares Group 1-4 combined (top 29 overall), the Group 5 defenseman are 57% less likely to reach 100 NHL games and 61% less likely to average over 18.5 minutes/game. Therefore, when drafting defensemen, an early to mid second round selection is worth less than half that of a mid-first round selection.
For defenseman, selected between 30th and 50th overall, the expected value of that draft pick is roughly the same, in terms of games played and ice time. With a weak correlation of 0.04, an adjusted r-squared of -0.01 and a p-value of 0.73, there is nothing to suggest that a defenseman selected 30th overall will play any more ice time than a 50th overall selection.
GROUP SIX: 51-75 OVERALL
# of 1st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 86
Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 28%
Percentage with 100+ games and ATOI of 18:30+: 10%
Average Games Played: 88
ATOI: 7:50
Average Points/Game: 0.10
Compared to the defenseman in Group 5, the Group 6 defenseman are only 12% less likely to reach the threshold of 100 NHL games played. Therefore, there is not a significant decrease in the likelihood of finding a defenseman in Group 6 compared to Group 5. However, the quality of the defensemen a team can find does see a significant decrease as a Group 6 defenseman is 39% less likely to average over 18.5 minutes/game. A Group 6 defenseman is also 39% less likely to average over 20+ minutes per game as well. Of the defenseman who have played at least 100 NHL games, 63% have a career ATOI of less than 18:30. Therefore, a team is twice as likely to find a defenseman that will go on to play the majority of their career on the bottom pairing. Therefore, when drafting in the late second or early third round, a team should focus on drafting a defenseman that has the attributes they are looking for in a #5 or #6 defenseman.
For defenseman, selected between 51st and 75th overall, the expected value of that draft pick is roughly the same, in terms of games played and ice time. With a correlation of 0.01, an adjusted r-squared of -0.01 and a p-value of 0.89, there is nothing to suggest that a defenseman selected 51st overall will play any more ice time than an 75th overall selection.
GROUP SEVEN: 76-90 OVERALL
# of 1st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 68
Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 22%
Percentage with 100+ games and ATOI of 18:30+: 3%
Average Games Played: 68
ATOI: 6:37
Average Points/Game: 0.07
When drafting in the late third round, do not except to find any top four defenseman available, as the majority should all be selected by this time. Out of 68 players, only two of them have gone on to reach the threshold of 100 games played while maintaining a career ATOI of 18:30. Therefore, a defenseman selected in Group 7 is 72% less likely to reach this threshold than compared to a Group 6 defenseman. However, we do not see the same large drop-off in terms of the likelihood of reaching 100 NHL games. A defenseman selected in Group 7 is 21% less likely to reach 100 NHL games played when compared to a Group 6 defenseman. By this time in the draft, teams should forget about swinging for the fences and rather focus on stocking up on depth defenseman. Of the defenseman who have played at least 100 NHL games, 88% have a career ATOI of less than 18:30.
For defenseman, selected between 76th and 90th overall, the expected value of that draft pick is roughly the same, in terms of games played and ice time. With a correlation of 0.10, an adjusted r-squared of -0.02 and a p-value of 0.55, there is nothing to suggest that a defenseman selected 76th overall will play any more ice time than an 90th overall selection.
SUMMARY
By using games played and ATOI, the expected draft value of first year eligible defenseman, drafted in the top 90, can be broken down into seven separate groups. The breakdown of each group is:
Through analysis of the group ranges, we see that overall, teams are selecting the best defensive prospects first, as the likelihood of reaching the games played and ATOI threshold of each group, decreases steadily. In the case of games played, the adjusted r-squared between the groups and the likelihood of having reached 100 NHL games played is 0.9567. Therefore, the likelihood of finding a defenseman that will play over 100 games decreases at a steady rate from group to group.
In the case of ATOI, the adjusted r-squared between the groups and the likelihood of having a career ATOI of over 18:30 minutes/game is 0.9495. Therefore, similar to games played, there is a decline from group to group in the likelihood of a defenseman having a career ATOI of over 18:30 minutes/game. However, unlike games played which decreases at a linear rate, ATOI decreases exponentially. Therefore, the quality of defenseman available in a draft decreases at a faster rate than the quantity of defenseman available.
A defenseman selected between 30th and 90 overall, in the NHL Entry Draft, is nowhere near as likely to be a NHL defender compared with those selected in the top 29 overall. Just by raw numbers, between 1998 and 2010, there were 131 first year eligible defenseman selected in the top 90 that went on to play at least 100 NHL games. Of those, 56% were selected in the top 29 overall. To think of it in another way, a team has stronger odds of selecting a defenseman that will play 100 NHL games with one first round selection than with a second plus a third combined. In terms of reaching at least 100 NHL games, while maintaining a career ATOI of 18:30 or better, 67 defensemen reached this mark. Of those, 64% were selected in the top 29 overall. This means nearly double the amount of defenseman that have an ATOI of 18:30 or better come from the top 29 overall selections than they do from selections 30 through 90. In other words, a team with one mid-first round selection would almost be as likely to select a defenseman that has a career ATOI of 18:30 minutes/game or better than a team that selects two defensemen in the second round and two defensemen in the third round. That is why the first round of the NHL Entry Draft is so important and why knowing the value of a draft selection cannot be stressed enough. Failure to understand this concept will leave a team making poor choices at the draft, however, those that do will reap the benefits.
BLUE BULLET REPORT 
3 thoughts on “EXPECTED DRAFT VALUE OF A SECOND & THIRD ROUND DEFENSEMAN”