ODDS OF SUCCESS: CHL DEFENSEMEN DRAFTED TOP 90 FROM 2011-2015

For the last few weeks, I have been focusing my research on the expected draft value of defensive prospects, selected in the top 90 overall in the NHL Entry Draft. What I originally found is that there are seven different groupings for defensemen, each with a different likelihood of reaching these three thresholds:

• At least 100 NHL games played
• At least 100 NHL games played while having a career ATOI of 18:30 minutes/game or greater
• At least 100 NHL games played while having a career ATOI of 20:00 minutes/game or greater

The results for the seven groups are:

With CHL players, there is more statistical comparables and data available to work with and I was able to break down the groups further based on whether a defenseman had an adjusted points per game above or below 0.44. Adjusted points per game is based on my research that power play production from juniors does not carry over at the same rate as non power play production. Therefore, with adjusted points per game, a power play point is adjusted at a rate of 0.58. The groups for CHL defenseman are:

With some groups having similar odds of reaching each threshold, the following groups are combined:

• Group 3 w/ Adjusted PPG of 0.43 or less is combined with Group 5 & 6 w/ Adjusted PPG of 0.44 or better
• Group 5 & 6 w/ Adjusted PPG of 0.43 or less is combined
• Group 7 is combined into one group

Therefore, what group does each CHL defenseman drafted in the top 90, between 2011 to 2015, fall into? In addition, which of these defensemen have already reached some or all of the three thresholds? And if a few defenseman have reached some of the thresholds, than the odds for the remaining defensemen would decrease. Therefore, what are the odds for the defensemen that have not yet reached some or all of the three thresholds?

• Ekblad and Murray have reached all three thresholds, as expected.

• Jones and Rielly have reached all three thresholds.
• All eight defenseman are expected to play at least 100 NHL games. Five of them have yet to reach this target.
• Three to four of Reinhart, Dumba, Nurse, Fluery, Provorov and Pouliot are expected to be career twenty minute per night defenseman. Meanwhile, two to three of them are expected to be less than 18:30 minute per night defenseman

• No defenseman has yet to reach all three thresholds.
• Likely two defenseman out of Koekkoek, Siemens, Morrissey, Zboril, Honka, Pulock and Chabot will not play 100 NHL games
• Four to five of Koekkoek, Siemens, Murphy, Morrissey, Zboril, Honka, Pulock, Beaulieu and Chabot are expected to play 100 plus games and have a career ATOI over 18:30 minutes/game.
• Meanwhile, four to five of the entire group is expected to be twenty minute per night defenseman. Hamilton and Ceci are the likeliest at reaching this target which means that two to three other defenseman in the group are also expected to have an ATOI of twenty plus minutes per game.

• No defenseman has yet to reach all three thresholds.
• Likely three to four defenseman out of Deangelo, Morrow, Percy, Theodore and Juulsen will play 100 NHL games.
• Only one to two defenseman out of Deangelo, Morrow, Percy, Theodore and Juulsen are expected to play 100 plus games and have a career ATOI over 18:30 minutes/game.
• Meanwhile, one to two defenseman, out of the entire group, is expected to be a twenty minute per night defenseman. Maatta is the likeliest to be one of them, meaning that at best, one other defenseman in the group is expected to have an ATOI of over twenty minutes per game.

• No defenseman has yet to reach all three thresholds. Severson is the only defenseman to reach any of the three.
• Eight to nine defenseman, other than Severson, are expected to play at least 100 NHL games.
• Meanwhile, four to five defenseman, other than Severson, are expected to play 100 plus games and have a career ATOI over 18:30 minutes/game.
• Out of the entire group, three to four defenseman are expected to become twenty minute per night defenseman. Severson is the likeliest to be one of them, meaning that two to three other defenseman in the group are expected to have an ATOI greater than twenty minutes per game.

• No defenseman has yet to reach any of the thresholds, including 100 NHL games played.
• Six to seven defenseman are expected to play at least 100 NHL games.
• Meanwhile, two defenseman are expected to play 100 plus games and have a career ATOI over 18:30 minutes/game.
• Out of the entire group, one to two defenseman are expected to become twenty minute per night defenseman.

• No defenseman has yet to reach the target of at least 100 NHL games played.
• Two to three defenseman are expected to play at least 100 NHL games.
• Meanwhile, none of the defensemen are expected to play 100 plus games and have a career ATOI over 18:30 minutes/game.