EXPECTED DRAFT VALUE OF A FORWARD SELECTED TOP 90 OVERALL

To understand the present one must know the past. For the NHL Entry Draft this is done by understanding the expected value of a draft pick. By knowing the value of a draft pick, it provides insights into where players have similar odds of success, which allows teams to move comfortably down in the draft while acquiring additional assets. It also can answer questions such as what value does a second round selection have in comparison to that of a first round selection and when is it a good time to trade a selection for a depth player?

Previously, I looked at the expected value of a defenseman selected in the top ninety overall.

EXPECTED DRAFT VALUE OF A FIRST ROUND DEFENSEMAN

EXPECTED DRAFT VALUE OF A SECOND & THIRD ROUND DEFENSEMAN

This study will be looking at the expected value of a first year draft eligible forward selected top ninety overall.

Measurements

To measure the expected draft value of a forward, this study uses games played and career average points per game for its measurements. These measurements are used to determine the likelihood that a first year draft eligible forward will reach the threshold of playing at least 100 NHL games and the likelihood they will reach the threshold of playing at least 100 NHL games while having a career average of 0.50 points/game or better. The study looks at all forwards drafted in the top ninety between 1998 and 2010.

WHERE TO GROUP? WHERE TO GROUP?

To determine where to separate the forwards, I chose groupings based on where the correlation between career average points per game and draft position was the weakest. For draft selections one through four, I found it best to look at each selection individually. Meanwhile, for the rest of the selections, 5 through 90, I separated these forwards into five groups. The groups are:

Draft Position: 5-7

Draft Position: 8-15

Draft Position: 16-33

Draft Position: 34-72

Draft Position: 73-90

BREAKDOWN

Draft Position: 1st Overall

 # of 1^st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 10

Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 100%

Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 90%

Average Games Played: 707

Average Points/Game: 0.92

Draft Position: 2nd Overall

 # of 1^st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 9

Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 100%

Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 100%

Average Games Played: 724

Average Points/Game: 0.79

Draft Position: 3rd Overall

 # of 1^st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 7

Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 100%

Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 86%

Average Games Played: 672

Average Points/Game: 0.68

Draft Position: 4th Overall

 # of 1^st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 8

Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 88%

Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 75%

Average Games Played: 503

Average Points/Game: 0.60

Draft Position: 5th-7th Overall

 # of 1^st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 27

Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 96%

Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 52%

Average Games Played: 505

Average Points/Game: 0.49

Draft Position: 8th-15th Overall

 # of 1^st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 58

Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 69%

Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 29%

Average Games Played: 342

Average Points/Game: 0.37

Draft Position: 16th-33rd Overall

 # of 1^st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 119

Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 61%

Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 26%

Average Games Played: 278

Average Points/Game: 0.32

Draft Position: 34th-72nd Overall

 # of 1^st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 234

Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 31%

Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 8%

Average Games Played: 130

Average Points/Game: 0.17

Draft Position: 73rd-90th Overall

 # of 1^st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 94

Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 18%

Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 4%

Average Games Played: 58

Average Points/Game: 0.09

SUMMARY AND THOUGHTS

• Draft selections 1-3 have similar results in terms of likelihood to reach the thresholds for games played and for career average PPG. However, where the selections differentiate is in the average PPG. A second overall selection, on average, has a 16 % higher PPG career average than a third overall selection. A first overall selection, on average, has a 16 % higher PPG career average than a second overall selection.
• The fourth overall selection is where we see the first player fail to reach 100 NHL games played. That honour goes to Pavel Brendl.
• Between 5th and 7th overall, forwards remain a good bet to be regulars in the NHL, with only one forward failing to reach 100 NHL games played (Filatov). However, there is a significant drop-off in the likelihood of these forwards averaging over 0.50 PPG in their career. The career average PPG of the 14 forwards to do so is 0.64. The career average PPG of the 13 forwards who did not reach the 0.50 PPG threshold is 0.33. A team is just as likely to select a role player, between 5th and 7th, as they are a top six forward.
• Between 5th and 72nd overall, the amount of draft selections each group is comprised of doubles from 3 to 8 to 18 to 39. The separation in talent narrows during the course of the draft.
• There is little separation between a forward selected 8th to 15th overall and one that is selected 16th to 33rd. With only a 10-15% decrease in the likelihood of reaching both the games played and PPG targets, teams drafting 8th overall and later could benefit by moving down in the first round of the draft while acquiring additional draft picks.
• After the early part of the second round, the bottom falls out on the quality of forwards available. A selection in the 34-72 range is half as likely to reach 100 NHL games played than one selected in the 16-33 range. They are also 1/3 as likely to have a career average PPG above 0.50. In addition, the average games played and average PPG of the selections in the 34-72 range is half that of those forwards selected in the 16-33 range. Therefore, do not overvalue a second round selection, as it is worth half that of a mid to late first round selection.
• The value of draft picks continues to plummet as the draft continues into the mid to late third round. Forwards selected in the 73-90 range fair about half as well as those selected in the 34-72 range. With only a 1 in 5 chance of selecting a forward who plays at least 100 NHL games, the odds are low in finding an everyday forward after the mid-part of round three. This is the point in the draft where teams should be looking at moving their pick for an actual NHL role player. Since an average forward selection in this range plays 58 games and scores at a rate of 0.09 points/game, if you can trade for a depth forward that plays just 60 games for your team and scores only 6 points, one can cover their bet.