Previously, I looked at the expected value of a first year draft eligible forward selected in the top ninety overall in the NHL Entry Draft. By looking at the likelihood of a forward reaching the threshold of playing at least 100 NHL games and the likelihood they will reach the threshold of playing at least 100 NHL games while having a career average of 0.50 points/game or better, I grouped the top 90 into the following groups:
EXPECTED DRAFT VALUE OF A FORWARD SELECTED TOP 90 OVERALL
In this study, I wanted to look at the expected draft value of only the first year draft eligible forwards from the CHL. While I looked at forwards as a whole when I focused on draft selection to group the forwards, with CHL players I wanted to add statistical analysis into the mix.
Method of Grouping
CHL forwards will first be grouped based on my point prediction formula for CHL forwards called NHLP and then by draft selection. NHLP is a formula that estimates the points a CHL forward will put up in their best NHL season, based on them playing a full 82 game NHL season. The formula to calculate NHLP is:
Non powerplay points (ES+SH): (0.201645 + 0.220766 X Non-PP Pts/G) + (0.563435 X Non-PP Contribution %)
+
Powerplay points: (0.699759 + 0.179796 X PP Pts/G) – (0.036095 X Age on Sep 15 of Draft Year) + (0.250900 X PP Contribution %)
Note: Contribution % is defined as the percentage of a team’s regulation scoring (shootgoals are removed) in which a player receives a point. Games missed by a player are removed from the equation.
Note: Age only plays a factor for power play scoring.
NHL POINT PREDICTION MODEL FOR CHL FORWARDS
The reason why I have chosen to do it based on NHLP before draft selection is due to the fact that the correlation for CHL forwards is stronger between NHLP and career points per game than it is between draft selection and career points per game.
The R-squared for NHLP and career average points per game is 0.3441
The R-squared for draft selection and career average points per game is 0.2836
Therefore, NHLP is over 20% stronger at explaining the career average NHL points per game of a CHL forward than the position in which they were drafted.
To determine where to separate the groups I looked at where the correlation between career points per game and NHLP was the weakest. When doing this, I found the data grouped better when the forwards drafted in the top three overall were removed from the equation. After doing so, I grouped the CHL forwards drafted between 4th and 90th overall into six groups. The groups are:
NHLP: 70-87
NHLP: 62-69
NHLP: 55-61
NHLP: 44-54
NHLP: 32-43
NHLP: 22-31
GROUPS
The groups can be further separated based on draft selection. Therefore, when draft selection is added to the mix, the groups jump from 6 to 15 in total. The groups are:
* Note: The NHLP numbers, for third round selections drafted from 2011-2015, needs updating which will occur in the summer. For all first and second round selections, I show which group each CHL forward falls under. As well, a handful of players fall in between two groups and they are listed in bold under both groups.
NHLP: 70+ (Drafted 4th-12th Overall)
# of 1st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 9
Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 89%
Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 78%
Average Points/Game: 0.59
Average Points/Game (min 100 GP): 0.63
Drafted Since 2011: Marner, Bennett, Dal Colle, Strome, Couturier, Ehlers, Meier, Barzal, Goldobin
NHLP: 70+ (Drafted 28th-70th Overall)
# of 1st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 9
Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 56%
Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 33%
Average Points/Game: 0.40
Average Points/Game (min 100 GP): 0.59
Drafted Since 2011: Petan, Carrier, Barzal, Goldobin
NHLP: 62-69 (Drafted 4th-7th Overall)
# of 1st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 11
Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 100%
Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 73%
Average Points/Game: 0.52
Average Points/Game (min 100 GP): 0.52
Drafted Since 2011: Monahan
NHLP: 62-69 (Drafted 8th-29th Overall)
# of 1st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 26
Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 73%
Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 46%
Average Points/Game: 0.43
Average Points/Game (min 100 GP): 0.56
Drafted Since 2011: Ritchie, Domi, Grigorenko, McNeil, Rychel, Svechnikov, Mantha, Fabbri, Puempel, Shinkaruk, Konecny, Scherbak, Beauvillier, Phillips, Klimchuk, Ho-Sang, Merkley
NHLP: 62-69 (Drafted 32nd-64th Overall)
# of 1st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 12
Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 50%
Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 25%
Average Points/Game: 0.32
Average Points/Game (min 100 GP): 0.46
Drafted Since 2011: Barbashev, Sprong, Harkins, Chlapik, Trenin, Prince, Merkley
NHLP: 55-61 (Drafted 4th-7th Overall)
# of 1st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 5
Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 100%
Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 40%
Average Points/Game: 0.48
Average Points/Game (min 100 GP): 0.48
Drafted Since 2011: Scheifele
NHLP: 55-61 (Drafted 8th-38th Overall)
# of 1st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 28
Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 64%
Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 21%
Average Points/Game: 0.32
Average Points/Game (min 100 GP): 0.43
Drafted Since 2011: Crouse, Perlini, Baertschi, Debrusk, Noesen, Poirier, Bleackley, Gaunce, Danault, Namestnikov, Hawryluk, Rattie, Erne, Zykov, Jenner, Dauphin
NHLP: 55-61 (Drafted 40th-72nd Overall)
# of 1st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 19
Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 32%
Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 21%
Average Points/Game: 0.23
Average Points/Game (min 100 GP): 0.45
Drafted Since 2011: Khokhlachev, Sorenson, Roy, Dauphin
NHLP: 55-69 (Drafted 74th-88th Overall)
# of 1st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 6
Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 0%
Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 0%
Average Points/Game: 0.07
Average Points/Game (min 100 GP): N/A
Drafted Since 2011: Not Available
NHLP: 44-54 (Drafted 7th-29th Overall)
# of 1st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 24
Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 71%
Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 8%
Average Points/Game: 0.27
Average Points/Game (min 100 GP): 0.35
Drafted Since 2011: Virtanen, Zacha, Horvat, Faksa, Lazar, Laughton, Gauthier, McCann, Samuelsson, Jensen, Dickinson, Quenneville, Rakell, Hartman
NHLP: 44-54 (Drafted 31st-75th Overall)
# of 1st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 66
Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 33%
Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 8%
Average Points/Game: 0.16
Average Points/Game (min 100 GP): 0.34
Drafted Since 2011: Lemieux, Stephens, Jurco, Gagne, Bittner, L. Sutter, Gropp, Saad, Cornel, B. Ritchie, Pollock, Bussieres, Nastasiuk, Aube-Kubel, Paquin-Boudreau, Karabacek, Frk, Sissons, Winther, Lessio, Quenneville, Rakell, Hartman
NHLP: 44-54 (Drafted 78th-90th Overall)
# of 1st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 14
Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 7%
Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 0%
Average Points/Game: 0.11
Average Points/Game (min 100 GP): 0.45
Drafted Since 2011: Not Available
NHLP: 32-43 (Drafted 9th-50th Overall)
# of 1st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 19
Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 47%
Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 5%
Average Points/Game: 0.17
Average Points/Game (min 100 GP): 0.27
Drafted Since 2011: Senyshyn, Wilson, Moroz, MacInnis, McGinn
NHLP: 32-43 (Drafted 52nd-89th Overall)
# of 1st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 32
Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 28%
Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 3%
Average Points/Game: 0.09
Average Points/Game (min 100 GP): 0.22
Drafted Since 2011: Bailey, Knott, Tierney, Bertuzzi, Dvorak
NHLP: 22-31 (Drafted 34th-90th Overall)
# of 1st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 8
Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 13%
Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 0%
Average Points/Game: 0.03
Average Points/Game (min 100 GP): 0.03
Drafted Since 2011: Elie
WHAT ABOUT THE TOP THREE?
Now that the forwards selected 4th to 90th overall are separated into 15 groups, the focus now turns to the top three overall selections. With forwards drafted in the top three, all of them have played at least 100 NHL games while averaging over 0.50 points per game throughout their career. David Legwand and Jordan Staal are the only players with a career point per game below 0.67.
NHLP: 70+ (Drafted 1st Overall)
# of 1st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 7
Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 100%
Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 100%
Average Points/Game: 0.95
Average Points/Game (min 100 GP): 0.95
Drafted Since 2011: McDavid, MacKinnon, RNH, Yakupov
NHLP: 70+ (Drafted 2nd Overall)
# of 1st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 4
Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 100%
Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 100%
Average Points/Game: 0.80
Average Points/Game (min 100 GP): 0.80
Drafted Since 2011: Reinhart, Draisaitl, Drouin, D. Strome, Huberdeau
NHLP: 62-69 (Drafted 2nd-3rd Overall)
# of 1st round picks between 1998 and 2010: 3
Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 100%
Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 100%
Average Points/Game: 0.72
Average Points/Game (min 100 GP): 0.72
Drafted Since 2011: Landeskog, Draisaitl, Drouin, D. Strome, Huberdeau
NHLP: 44-54 (Drafted 2nd Overall)
# of 1st round picks between 1998 and 2010: Jordan Staal
Percentage with at least 100 NHL games: 100%
Percentage with 100+ games and 0.50+ Pts/G: 100%
Average Points/Game: 0.57
Average Points/Game (min 100 GP): 0.57
Drafted Since 2011: Galchenyuk
- With the top three overall selections, there is a strong correlation of 0.81 between NHLP and career average points per game. Therefore, with CHL players projected in the top three overall, NHLP could be a useful tool in giving a rough projection of their future career average points per game in the NHL. Based on this sample, the formula for calculating career average points per game for a top three overall selection is:
-0.21422 + (0.013899 X NHLP)
- For forwards drafted top three overall, between 1998 and 2010, this is a list of their actual career average points per game and their expected career average points per game, as predicted by NHLP.
- These are the results for the forwards selected between 2011 and 2015:
Updating Expected Value for Forwards
When I looked into the expected value of all forwards, drafted in the top 90 between 1998 and 2010, I presented the average career points per game for the entire group. Going forward, I will instead show just the average career points per game of those forwards that have played at least 100 NHL games. This will give one a better idea for the average upside for the forwards in the group that become regular players at the NHL level. Therefore, here is the updated numbers for all forwards drafted between 1998 and 2010:
Summary of the Expected Value of CHL Forwards
- 6 out of the 7 first overall selections have a NHLP of 75+. Rick Nash, with a NHLP of 70, is the outlier, as he did not put up the offensive numbers one would expect of a typical first overall selection. In the last five draft years, there have been four CHL forwards that have been selected first overall, with only Connor McDavid having a NHLP of 75 or greater.
- A second overall selection from the CHL, with a NHLP of at least 70, has similar expected draft value to what one would expect out of a second overall selection. The four 2nd overall selections are Spezza, Legwand, E. Staal and Seguin and each had a NHLP score of 75 or greater.
- A 4th-12th overall selection, with a NHLP of at least 70, has about the same value as one would expect from a fourth overall selection. This is where teams in the latter half of the top ten can snag a 1st line forward.
- A 28th-70th overall selection, with a NHLP of at least 70, has similar value to that of a forward drafted between 8th and 33rd overall. This is where second round steals can occur.
- There are no forwards, drafted between 1998 and 2010, that had an NHLP of 70 or greater while being drafted between 13th and 27th overall. This is where Barzal and Goldobin are located.
- Between 8th to 29th overall is when you should jump on forwards that have a NHLP of 62 to 69, as on average, they give a better return than what one would expect of a 8th to 15th overall selection. There have been 16 forwards that fall into this range since 2011, with only N. Ritchie, Domi and Grigorenko being selected in the 8-15 range. This is where late first round steals occur.
- Forwards with a NHLP of 62 to 69, drafted in the second round, can turn out to be big steals.
- Selecting a forward between 40th and 72nd overall, with a NHLP of 55-61, will not give you a better chance at finding a NHL player (31-32%) when compared with an average forward selection in that range. However, it will give a team a better chance at finding a stronger offensive forward (0.45 PPG rather than 0.37).
- Mid to late third round selections, with a NHLP between 55-69, have bad odds of success, as zero players drafted between 1998 and 2010 played at least 100 NHL games. These forwards show offensive promise in juniors but there is likely a deficiency in their game which is the reason they were passed over in the first place. Teams are better off selecting role players or late bloomers, with a NHLP of 32-54, at this point in the draft.
- For forwards with a NHLP of 44 to 54, that are drafted between 7th and 29th overall, there is a slightly higher percentage of players that end up playing 100 NHL games than compared with what is expected of a 8th to 33rd overall pick. However, the offensive quality is not the same, as players with a NHLP of 44 to 54, score 25% less than what is expected of an 8th to 33rd overall selection. This is where 3rd line character forwards and players with size are overrated.
- The NHLP scores for some of the top forwards in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft are: Tkachuk 79, Nylander 71, Dubois 66, Brown 63, MacLeod 61, Gauthier 53, Jones 44
BLUE BULLET REPORT 