Part III of updating my draft model focuses in on the Blue Bullet Draft Pick Value Chart. The value chart is based off of my research on expected rates of return for time on ice for defensemen (Part I) and points per game for forwards (Part II). By taking this research and combining it with that of Michael Schuckers’s work, which is based on games played, it provides a value chart that accounts for both the quantity of games played and the quality. Schuckers’s research focused on providing a value for each draft selection for the amount of expected games played. While it is a great start for a draft pick value chart, it does not capture the fact that a game played by an average first overall pick is different then a game played by a 100th overall pick. That is what the Blue Bullet Draft Pick Value Chart is able to accomplish.
CONVERTING TIME ON ICE FOR DMEN
For defensemen, points per game was not used as the measurement, due to it not being as strong a measurement for the value of a defenseman as time on ice. However, this creates an issue when trying to do a value chart since P/G is the measurement used for forwards. Therefore, a conversion chart was needed to convert average time on ice for defenseman into a equivalent P/G measurement. To create the conversion chart, the average P/G and standard deviation of all forwards to play at least 100 NHL games and the ATOI and standard deviation of all defensemen to play at least 100 NHL games were calculated. The conversion chart is then created by taking those averages and standard deviations and making them equivalent.
In part I, defenseman were grouped into the following groupings based on these groups having similar rates for ATOI. By taking the conversion chart and applying it to all defensemen, the equivalent average P/G for the groupings are as follows:
GAMES PLAYED FOR FORWARDS VS DEFENSEMEN
Two other items factor into the value chart. The first item is the fact that defensemen play less games in their career than forwards and the second is that more forwards are selected than defensemen. In my previous value chart, the games played for defensemen was adjusted based on the fact that forwards end up playing 18.5% more games in the NHL than defensemen. However, when dug further into, there is a stark difference between a defenseman drafted in the top 21 and for those drafted after. For those defensemen drafted in the top 21, forwards only play 5.6% more games in the NHL. Meanwhile, for those defensemen drafted 22nd or later, forwards play 21.1% more games in the NHL. Therefore, my previous model was significantly understating the value of defensemen drafted in the top 21.
The other adjustment that is required, to combine the value of forwards and defensemen into one overall value, is the fact that more forwards are drafted than defensemen. Therefore, the ratio of forwards drafted compared to defensemen is also implemented into the model. After all that is said and done, the chart is standardized so that a 1st overall selection is valued at 100.
BLUE BULLET DRAFT PICK VALUE CHART
- A scatter plot of the Blue Bullet Draft Pick Value Chart shows that the value of a draft pick is not a steady decline, like a playground slide, but is much more rapid, like falling off a cliff. For example, the value of the 2nd overall pick (84.0) is worth more than the entire 3rd round combined (78.2). Meanwhile, the first overall pick (100.0) is worth more than the 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th round combined (96.9). The vast majority of the value in the draft is at the top.
2019 POTENTIAL TRADES
On the day of the draft, there is always potential for movement of draft picks as teams try to move up and down in the draft order to secure the players that they want. A fun thing to do with the Blue Bullet Draft Pick Value Chart is to attempt to find fair trades for the NHL entry draft. Here are some examples of those: