After three years, it is finally time for an update to the Blue Bullet Draft Pick Value Chart. The value chart is based off a combination of my research on historical rates for time on ice for defensemen and points per game for forwards, with that of Michael Schuckers’s work, which is based on games played. By doing this it provides a value chart that accounts for both the quantity and quality of games played (if you are interested in a more in depth dive into how the value chart is created, check out the 2019 edition).
BLUE BULLET DRAFT PICK VALUE CHART
73% of the value in the draft occurs in the first round, 12% in the second round, and 7% in the third round. Rounds three through seven make up the remaining 8% in value. If you were wondering why teams covet their first round picks, this is why.
BUT DOES IT WORK?
Since this is a new shiny chart, I think it is best to give it a test spin and see how close in value it compares with some first round trades made on draft day over the last three seasons.
Based on this small sample, the Blue Bullet Draft Pick Value Chart is on the right track and is a reliable resource for fans to use when evaluating draft trades. For example, four out of the six trades have values that are relatively close to each other (within 5%) suggesting that this value chart is on par with the ones used by NHL teams. Two of the trades (Nashville-Carolina trade in 2021 and the Washington-Calgary trade in 2020) do see a larger difference in value suggesting that Carolina and Washington overpaid in these situations. In the case of the 2021 draft, I suspect Carolina was factoring that there was a higher likelihood of a player falling to them than in previous drafts due to pandemic severely reducing the amount of games played.
2022 – THE YEAR OF THE COYOTES
On the day of the draft, there is always potential for movement of draft picks as teams try to move up and down in the draft order to secure the players that they want. A fun thing to do with the Blue Bullet Draft Pick Value Chart is to attempt to find fair trades for the NHL entry draft. Here is an example of how a three way trade could give the Arizona Coyotes 20% of the first 45 selections. That would make a hell of a draft day.
- Anaheim trades 10,22,42,&154 for the 6
- Columbus trades the 6,12,&203 for the 3&67
- Arizona trades the 3&67 for 10,12,22,42,154,&203
- After all is done, Arizona would have the following nine selections in the top fifty: 10,12,22,27,34,36,42,43,&45
BLUE BULLET REPORT 