Previously, I looked at the expected value of a first year draft eligible forward selected in the top ninety overall in the NHL Entry Draft. By looking at the likelihood of a forward reaching the threshold of playing at least 100 NHL games and the likelihood they will reach the threshold of playing at least 100 NHL games … Continue reading EXPECTED DRAFT VALUE OF A CHL FORWARD SELECTED TOP 90 OVERALL
To understand the present one must know the past. For the NHL Entry Draft this is done by understanding the expected value of a draft pick. By knowing the value of a draft pick, it provides insights into where players have similar odds of success, which allows teams to move comfortably down in the draft while … Continue reading EXPECTED DRAFT VALUE OF A FORWARD SELECTED TOP 90 OVERALL
For the last few weeks, I have been focusing my research on the expected draft value of defensive prospects, selected in the top 90 overall in the NHL Entry Draft. What I originally found is that there are seven different groupings for defensemen, each with a different likelihood of reaching these three thresholds: At least 100 NHL games … Continue reading ODDS OF SUCCESS: CHL DEFENSEMEN DRAFTED TOP 90 FROM 2011-2015
A year ago, in of my first posts here at the Blue Bullet Report, I determined that there was no evidence that the point per game of a first year draft eligible CHL defenseman was a factor for their best point per game season in the NHL. What was useful though is the discovery that … Continue reading IMPROVING YOUR ODDS WHEN SELECTING CHL DEFENSEMAN
Knowing the expected value of a draft selection is critical to a team’s success at the NHL Entry Draft. It can be a useful tool for conceiving draft strategies, improving upon draft rankings or making trades. By knowing the value of a draft selection, teams are better off in making sound decisions on what to … Continue reading EXPECTED DRAFT VALUE OF A SECOND & THIRD ROUND DEFENSEMAN
There are different ways to measure the expected value of a draft selection for the NHL Entry Draft. One of the most well known is Scott Cullen’s annual article that he does every year for TSN. In determining the quality of player, Cullen uses games played and a numerical rating system as his measurement. For defenseman drafted … Continue reading EXPECTED DRAFT VALUE OF A FIRST ROUND DEFENSEMAN
When choosing between a forward or a defenseman, in the first round of the NHL Entry Draft, there are arguments to be made for selecting one over the other. Most arguments are in favour of choosing the forward over the d-men, as they take less time to develop, while also being considered less of a … Continue reading WHEN DRAFTING IN THE 1ST ROUND, TEAMS ARE MORE ACCURATE AT SELECTING D-MEN
Just like at the NHL level, the best way to evaluate players is a combination of scouting analysis and statistical analysis. While the eye test and the numbers will not always align, it does not mean that one method is better over the other, but more so, that further investigation is required. In a perfect … Continue reading WHEN SCOUTS AND STATS COLLIDE (AND WHEN THEY DON’T)
TSN’s Scott Cullen does an article every year where he analyzes the expected value of NHL draft picks. In his analysis of the first round, Cullen looks at each draft position and applies a numerical rating system for the average rating for that draft selection, along with the percentage of players to play at least … Continue reading THE MAGIC NUMBER IS 66
For evaluating the NHL Entry Draft, I use a combination of statistical based analysis alongside scouting reports provided by the various draft guides available. Both methods of analysis provide insights into a prospect, but that does not mean that both are of equal value. Therefore, how can we test which is a better method? For … Continue reading THE EYE TEST IS FAILING (WHEN DRAFTING CHL FORWARDS IN THE 1ST ROUND)
BLUE BULLET REPORT 