BLUE BULLET REPORT

Knowing the expected value of a draft selection is critical to a team’s success at the NHL Entry Draft. It can be a useful tool for conceiving draft strategies, improving upon draft rankings or making trades. By knowing the value of a draft selection, teams are better off in making sound decisions on what to … Continue reading EXPECTED DRAFT VALUE OF A SECOND & THIRD ROUND DEFENSEMAN

There are different ways to measure the expected value of a draft selection for the NHL Entry Draft. One of the most well known is Scott Cullen’s annual article that he does every year for TSN. In determining the quality of player, Cullen uses games played and a numerical rating system as his measurement. For defenseman drafted … Continue reading EXPECTED DRAFT VALUE OF A FIRST ROUND DEFENSEMAN

When choosing between a forward or a defenseman, in the first round of the NHL Entry Draft, there are arguments to be made for selecting one over the other. Most arguments are in favour of choosing the forward over the d-men, as they take less time to develop, while also being considered less of a … Continue reading WHEN DRAFTING IN THE 1ST ROUND, TEAMS ARE MORE ACCURATE AT SELECTING D-MEN

Just like at the NHL level, the best way to evaluate players is a combination of scouting analysis and statistical analysis. While the eye test and the numbers will not always align, it does not mean that one method is better over the other, but more so, that further investigation is required. In a perfect … Continue reading WHEN SCOUTS AND STATS COLLIDE (AND WHEN THEY DON’T)

TSN’s Scott Cullen does an article every year where he analyzes the expected value of NHL draft picks. In his analysis of the first round, Cullen looks at each draft position and applies a numerical rating system for the average rating for that draft selection, along with the percentage of players to play at least … Continue reading THE MAGIC NUMBER IS 66

For evaluating the NHL Entry Draft, I use a combination of statistical based analysis alongside scouting reports provided by the various draft guides available. Both methods of analysis provide insights into a prospect, but that does not mean that both are of equal value. Therefore, how can we test which is a better method? For … Continue reading THE EYE TEST IS FAILING (WHEN DRAFTING CHL FORWARDS IN THE 1ST ROUND)

For those who have been following along at the Blue Bullet Report, you will be well aware of my point projection model called NHLP, which predicts the career season of a CHL forward based on statistical factors from their first eligible draft season. Over the course of the last few weeks, I have applied the … Continue reading NHLP: IDENTIFYING TRENDS & ESTABLISHING BENCHMARKS

To evaluate draft eligible CHL forwards, I created a point prediction model called NHLP which predicts their career season point totals in an 82 game season. In  previous posts, I applied the NHLP formula to every CHL forward selected in the first round since the 1998 NHL Entry Draft. #1-3 Overall #4-6 Overall #7-10 Overall #11-15 … Continue reading APPLYING THE NHLP FORMULA: CHL FORWARDS DRAFTED IN THE FIRST ROUND