One way to evaluate prospects is by comparing them statistically against prior draft years. Typically, most people simply compare just points-per-game but that discounts the fact that different players score a different percentage of their points on the power play versus at even strength. I created what I call the NHL Projection formula (NHLP), which … Continue reading ANALYZING THE 2015 NHL DRAFT: OHL FORWARDS PART I
In Part III, we will look at the WHL forwards that project to have 40-45 point potential. As I get more familiar scanning the comparable players and have more time to do so, I am being able to better zero on what round of a pick to use on a player. The criteria for comparable … Continue reading 2015 WHL FORWARDS: STATISTICAL PROJECTIONS AND COMPARABLES (PART 3)
In Part II, we will look at the WHL forwards that project to have 45-50 point potential. For Part II, I have added the breakdown for percentage of picks from each round. Since the number of picks in a round varies over the years, I consider selections 1-30 as a 1st rounder, 31-60 as a … Continue reading 2015 WHL FORWARDS: STATISTICAL PROJECTIONS AND COMPARABLES (PART 2)
It is finally time to start evaluating the talent in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft and to start it off we will examine the forwards from the WHL. One way to evaluate prospects is by comparing them statistically against prior draft years. To do so, we will use the NHL Projection formula (NHLP) which projects … Continue reading 2015 WHL FORWARDS: STATISTICAL PROJECTIONS AND COMPARABLES (PART 1)
During the month of May the focus of the posts will relate to projecting the NHL offensive potential of first year draft eligible players for the 2015 draft. For the forwards we will use my projection formula called NHLP and for the defensemen, we will use a weight adjusted point formula that values non-power play … Continue reading NHL PROJECTIONS: WHAT MAKES A GOOD TOP 100 PICK
The main focus lately of this blog has been on the offensive projection of forwards, but now we will switch the focus back to defenseman today. For defenseman, there is no NHLP formula to project offensive upside, due to the fact the correlation between CHL and NHL points is not strong enough. Instead, the most … Continue reading ANALYZING D-MEN: TOP 10 PICKS 1998 – 2014
Each draft year is unique and has a mind of it own. Some draft years are top heavy with talent and other years have no superstars. Meanwhile the depth of talent can range quite differently from year to year. That is why when doing comparables, it is not a good idea to just compare a … Continue reading NHL PROJECTIONS: NOT ALL TOP FIVE PICKS ARE CREATED EQUAL
In doing a series of articles related to projecting future offensive potential of a first year draft eligible forward from the CHL, there have been a few discoveries. The first discovery is that there is a strong relationship between junior stats and NHL stats. The second discovery is that age does play a factor with … Continue reading NHL PROJECTIONS: CROSBY VS MCDAVID
NHL equivalency has become a popular tool used to evaluate prospects by accounting for the quality of the league. For example, a prospect who is playing in the KHL should put up different numbers than a players in the Swedish junior league or an American in the USHL based on the difficulty of scoring in … Continue reading THE Q IS NOT INFERIOR
It is a commonly held belief that age is a significant factor on draft eligible players. The theory is that at 17 and 18 years of age, players see a significant growth in their development and that an older player should have a higher production level than that of a younger player. Therefore, if you … Continue reading AGE MATTERS SORT OF
