For the last few weeks, I have been focusing my research on the expected draft value of defensive prospects, selected in the top 90 overall in the NHL Entry Draft. What I originally found is that there are seven different groupings for defensemen, each with a different likelihood of reaching these three thresholds: At least 100 NHL games … Continue reading ODDS OF SUCCESS: CHL DEFENSEMEN DRAFTED TOP 90 FROM 2011-2015
A year ago, in of my first posts here at the Blue Bullet Report, I determined that there was no evidence that the point per game of a first year draft eligible CHL defenseman was a factor for their best point per game season in the NHL. What was useful though is the discovery that … Continue reading IMPROVING YOUR ODDS WHEN SELECTING CHL DEFENSEMAN
To evaluate draft eligible CHL forwards, I created a point prediction model called NHLP which predicts their career season point totals in an 82 game season. In previous posts, I applied the NHLP formula to every CHL forward selected top 15 overall in the draft since 1998. #1-3 Overall #4-6 Overall #7-10 Overall #11-15 Overall #16-20 … Continue reading APPLYING THE NHLP FORMULA: CHL FORWARDS DRAFTED 26-30 OVERALL
It is here, it is here. The 2015 NHL Entry Draft is just days away and with the top end talent of Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, this draft will not be soon forgotten. In addition to the top end of the draft, there is solid picks to be had throughout the first round and … Continue reading BLUE BULLET REPORT 2015 NHL DRAFT GUIDE
One way to evaluate prospects is by comparing them statistically against prior draft years. Typically, most people simply compare just points-per-game but that discounts the fact that different players score a different percentage of their points on the power play versus at even strength. I created what I call the NHL Projection formula (NHLP), which … Continue reading ANALYZING THE 2015 NHL DRAFT: QMJHL FORWARDS PART III
One way to evaluate prospects is by comparing them statistically against prior draft years. Typically, most people simply compare just points-per-game but that discounts the fact that different players score a different percentage of their points on the power play versus at even strength. I created what I call the NHL Projection formula (NHLP), which … Continue reading ANALYZING THE 2015 NHL DRAFT: QMJHL FORWARDS PART II
One way to evaluate prospects is by comparing them statistically against prior draft years. Typically, most people simply compare just points-per-game but that discounts the fact that different players score a different percentage of their points on the power play versus at even strength. I created what I call the NHL Projection formula (NHLP), which … Continue reading ANALYZING THE 2015 NHL DRAFT: QMJHL FORWARDS PART I
In Part II, we will look at the WHL forwards that project to have 45-50 point potential. For Part II, I have added the breakdown for percentage of picks from each round. Since the number of picks in a round varies over the years, I consider selections 1-30 as a 1st rounder, 31-60 as a … Continue reading 2015 WHL FORWARDS: STATISTICAL PROJECTIONS AND COMPARABLES (PART 2)
It is finally time to start evaluating the talent in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft and to start it off we will examine the forwards from the WHL. One way to evaluate prospects is by comparing them statistically against prior draft years. To do so, we will use the NHL Projection formula (NHLP) which projects … Continue reading 2015 WHL FORWARDS: STATISTICAL PROJECTIONS AND COMPARABLES (PART 1)
The main focus lately of this blog has been on the offensive projection of forwards, but now we will switch the focus back to defenseman today. For defenseman, there is no NHLP formula to project offensive upside, due to the fact the correlation between CHL and NHL points is not strong enough. Instead, the most … Continue reading ANALYZING D-MEN: TOP 10 PICKS 1998 – 2014
BLUE BULLET REPORT 