Knowing the expected draft value of a selection is a useful tool to use when evaluating the NHL Entry Draft. While one of the most popular tools is to use it for analyzing the trade value of a draft pick, there are other ways that expected draft value could provide useful insights. One insight that … Continue reading BREAKING DOWN EXPECTED DRAFT VALUE OF FORWARDS: CHL VS EUROPE VS THE REST OF N.A.
Previously, I looked at the expected value of a first year draft eligible forward selected in the top ninety overall in the NHL Entry Draft. By looking at the likelihood of a forward reaching the threshold of playing at least 100 NHL games and the likelihood they will reach the threshold of playing at least 100 NHL games … Continue reading EXPECTED DRAFT VALUE OF A CHL FORWARD SELECTED TOP 90 OVERALL
To understand the present one must know the past. For the NHL Entry Draft this is done by understanding the expected value of a draft pick. By knowing the value of a draft pick, it provides insights into where players have similar odds of success, which allows teams to move comfortably down in the draft while … Continue reading EXPECTED DRAFT VALUE OF A FORWARD SELECTED TOP 90 OVERALL
For the last few weeks, I have been focusing my research on the expected draft value of defensive prospects, selected in the top 90 overall in the NHL Entry Draft. What I originally found is that there are seven different groupings for defensemen, each with a different likelihood of reaching these three thresholds: At least 100 NHL games … Continue reading ODDS OF SUCCESS: CHL DEFENSEMEN DRAFTED TOP 90 FROM 2011-2015
A year ago, in of my first posts here at the Blue Bullet Report, I determined that there was no evidence that the point per game of a first year draft eligible CHL defenseman was a factor for their best point per game season in the NHL. What was useful though is the discovery that … Continue reading IMPROVING YOUR ODDS WHEN SELECTING CHL DEFENSEMAN
To evaluate draft eligible CHL forwards, I created a point prediction model called NHLP which predicts their career season point totals in an 82 game season. In previous posts, I applied the NHLP formula to every CHL forward selected top 15 overall in the draft since 1998. #1-3 Overall #4-6 Overall #7-10 Overall #11-15 Overall #16-20 … Continue reading APPLYING THE NHLP FORMULA: CHL FORWARDS DRAFTED 26-30 OVERALL
The 2012 NHL Entry Draft was not a normal draft year to say the least. At the forward position, it was one of the weakest draft years with only two forwards selected in the top 10. Instead, the top end of the draft was littered with defenseman, though lacking what I would consider a true … Continue reading IN ALMOST ANY OTHER YEAR, YAKUPOV IS NOT A NUMBER 1 SELECTION
The Oilers had an okay October. This may be strange to say for a team that went 4-8-0 to start the season, but there is sometimes more than meets the eye. One item to take into consideration is quality of competition as a tough schedule can make a team look worse than they actually appear. … Continue reading OILERS WERE OKAY IN OCTOBER (UPDATED)
To evaluate draft eligible CHL forwards, I created a point prediction model called NHLP which predicts their career season point totals in an 82 game season. In previous posts, I applied the NHLP formula to every CHL forward selected top 10 overall in the draft since 1998. #1-3 Overall #4-6 Overall #7-10 Overall To continue along … Continue reading APPLYING THE NHLP FORMULA: CHL FORWARDS DRAFTED 11-15 OVERALL
When evaluating talent, scouts always give a range for a player’s potential such as a generic go to saying like “top 6” upside. However, that was not good enough for me and I always believed there is value in the numbers. Therefore, to evaluate draft eligible CHL forwards, I created a point prediction model called … Continue reading APPLYING THE NHLP FORMULA: TOP 3 OVERALL PICKS
BLUE BULLET REPORT 